Tourism demand forecasting using a novel high-precision fuzzy time series model

[[abstract]]Fuzzy time series model has been developed to either improve forecasting accuracy or reduce computation time, whereas a residul analysis in order to improve its forecasting performance is still lack of consideration. In this paper, we propose a novel Fourier method to revise the analysis of residual terms, and then we illustrate it to forecast the Japanese tourists visiting in Taiwan per year. The forecasting results show that our proposed method can derive the best forecasting performance as well as the smallest forecasting error of MAPE in the training sets; in the testing sets, the proposed model is also better to fit the future trend than some forecasting models.[[incitationindex]]EI[[booktype]]電子版[[booktype]]紙

Relaxation of classical many-body hamiltonians in one dimension

The relaxation of Fourier modes of hamiltonian chains close to equilibrium is studied in the framework of a simple mode-coupling theory. Explicit estimates of the dependence of relevant time scales on the energy density (or temperature) and on the wavenumber of the initial excitation are given. They are in agreement with previous numerical findings on the approach to equilibrium and turn out to be also useful in the qualitative interpretation of them. The theory is compared with molecular dynamics results in the case of the quartic Fermi-Pasta-Ulam potential.Comment: 9 pag. 6 figs. To appear in Phys.Rev.

Analysis of efficiency and profitability of franchise services

The present study analyses the relative efficiency of franchise services and characterises the best companies, confirming the relationship between efficiency and profit. These companies are from the trade and other services sector , the main group of service-providing companies in the Spanish economy. The methodology calls for first comparing the relative efficiency of franchisers and ownership enterprises. Second, the focus turns to the most efficient franchise services, using a super-efficiency model to rank them. The paper then goes on to cover the analysis of the main characteristics of the best franchise enterprises, the number of own establishments in a franchise business and the profitability of the company. This paper presents arguments as to why companies from the trade and other services sector are included. The main conclusion is that, whilst the number of establishments is irrelevant in achieving greater efficiency, many of the most efficient enterprises have high returns.García Martin, CJ.; Medal Bartual, A.; Peris-Ortiz, M. (2014). Analysis of efficiency and profitability of franchise services. Service Industries Journal. 34(9):796-810. doi:10.1080/02642069.2014.905921S79681034

Multidimensional Facets of Perceived Risk in Mobile Travel Booking

Despite the growing prevalence of smartphones in daily life and travel context, travellers still perceive an extent of risk associated with using their smartphone to book travel products. In order to alleviate or reduce perceived risk, it is important to better understand the dimensions of and the factors that contribute to perceived risk. This study analysed 411 responses from an online panel to examine perceived risk in mobile travel booking and identified the following facets: time risk, financial risk, performance risk, privacy/security risk, psychological risk, physical risk, and device risk. Several antecedents of perceived risk were identified. Perceived collection of personal information via smartphones contributes positively, while consumer innovativeness, trust, and visibility contribute negatively to perceived risk. Further, the predictive validity of perceived risk is confirmed as it significantly explains perceived usefulness, attitude, and behavioural intention in mobile travel booking. Implications to manage perceived risk and its antecedents are provided

IKZF1 Deletions with COBL Breakpoints Are Not Driven by RAG-Mediated Recombination Events in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

IKZF1 deletion (ΔIKZF1) is an important predictor of relapse in both childhood and adult B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL). Previously, we revealed that COBL is a hotspot for breakpoints in leukemia and could promote IKZF1 deletions. Through an international collaboration, we provide a detailed genetic and clinical picture of B-ALL with COBL rearrangements (COBL-r). Patients with B-ALL and IKZF1 deletion (n = 133) were included. IKZF1 ∆1-8 were associated with large alterations within chromosome 7: monosomy 7 (18%), isochromosome 7q (10%), 7p loss (19%), and interstitial deletions (53%). The latter included COBL-r, which were found in 12% of the IKZF1 ∆1-8 cohort. Patients with COBL-r are mostly classified as intermediate cytogenetic risk and frequently harbor ETV6, PAX5, CDKN2A/B deletions. Overall, 56% of breakpoints were located within COBL intron 5. Cryptic recombination signal sequence motifs were broadly distributed within the sequence of COBL, and no enrichment for the breakpoint cluster region was found. In summary, a diverse spectrum of alterations characterizes ΔIKZF1 and they also include deletion breakpoints within COBL. We confirmed that COBL is a hotspot associated with ΔIKZF1, but these rearrangements are not driven by RAG-mediated recombination

Digitally Continuous Multivalued Functions, Morphological Operations and Thinning Algorithms

In a recent paper (Escribano et al. in Discrete Geometry for Computer Imagery 2008. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 4992, pp. 81–92, 2008) we have introduced a notion of continuity in digital spaces which extends the usual notion of digital continuity. Our approach, which uses multivalued functions, provides a better framework to define topological notions, like retractions, in a far more realistic way than by using just single-valued digitally continuous functions. In this work we develop properties of this family of continuous functions, now concentrating on morphological operations and thinning algorithms. We show that our notion of continuity provides a suitable framework for the basic operations in mathematical morphology: erosion, dilation, closing, and opening. On the other hand, concerning thinning algorithms, we give conditions under which the existence of a retraction F:X⟶X∖D guarantees that D is deletable. The converse is not true, in general, although it is in certain particular important cases which are at the basis of many thinning algorithms

Molecular Evolution and Functional Diversification of Fatty Acid Desaturases after Recurrent Gene Duplication in Drosophila

Frequent gene duplications in the genome incessantly supply new genetic materials for functional innovation presumably driven by positive Darwinian selection. This mechanism in the desaturase gene family has been proposed to be important in triggering the pheromonal diversification in insects. With the recent completion of a dozen Drosophila genomes, a genome-wide perspective is possible. In this study, we first identified homologs of desaturase genes in 12 Drosophila species and noted that while gene duplication events are relatively frequent, gene losses are not scarce, especially in the desat1–desat2–desatF clade. By reconciling the gene tree with species phylogeny and the chromosomal synteny of the sequenced Drosophila genomes, at least one gene loss in desat2 and a minimum of six gene gains (resulting in seven desatF homologs, α-η), three gene losses and one relocation in desatF were inferred. Upon branching off the ancestral desat1 lineage, both desat2 and desatF gained novel functions through accelerating protein evolution. The amino acid residues under positive selection located near the catalytic sites and the C-terminal region might be responsible for altered substrate selectivity between closely related species. The association between the expression pattern of desatF-α and the chemical composition of cuticular hydrocarbons implies that the ancestral function of desatF-α is the second desaturation at the four carbons after the first double bond in diene synthesis, and the shift from bisexual to female-specific expression in desatF-α occurred in the ancestral lineage of Drosophila melanogaster subgroup. A relationship between the number of expressed desatF homologs and the diene diversification has also been observed. These results suggest that the molecular diversification of fatty acid desaturases after recurrent gene duplication plays an important role in pheromonal diversity in Drosophila

Evaluando el progreso de la eficiencia con tecnología en una cadena de hoteles española

This paper analyzes the changes in the total factor productivity index of a Spanish hotel chain in the period from 2007 to 2010 with the purpose of identifying efficiency patterns for the chain in a period of financial crisis. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist productivity index was used to estimate productivity change in 38 hotels of the AC chain. Results reveal AC hotels’ efficiency trends and, therefore, their competitiveness in the recession period; they also show the changes experienced in these hotels’ total productivity and its components: technological and efficiency changes. Positive efficiency changes were due to positive technical efficiency rather than technological efficiency. The recession period certainly influenced the performance of AC Hotels, which focused on organizational changes rather than investing in technology.Este artigo analisa as mudanças no fator total de produtividade de uma cadeia de hotéis na Espanha, no período de 2007-2010, com o propósito de identificar os padrões da cadeia em um período de crise financeira. O índice data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist de produtividade foi usado para estimar a mudança da produtividade nos 38 hotéis da AC Cadeia de Hotéis. Os resultados revelaram as tendências de eficiência e competitividade da AC Hotéis em um período de recessão, bem como as mudanças vivenciadas na produtividade total e, consequentemente, em seus componentes de eficiência e tecnológicos. O período de recessão influenciou, sem dúvida, o comportamento da AC Hotéis, que buscou mais mudanças organizacionais do que tecnológicas.Este artículo analiza los cambios del índice de productividad del factor total de una cadena de hoteles españoles en el periodo de 2007 hasta 2010, con el propósito de identificar patrones de eficiencia para la cadena en un periodo de crisis financiera. El índice de productividad data envelopment analysis (DEA) Malmquist fue utilizado para estimar el cambio de productividad en 38 hoteles de la cadena AC. Los resultados revelan las tendencias de la eficiencia de los hoteles AC y, por lo tanto, su competitividad en el periodo de recisión; ellos también demuestran los cambios experimentados en la productividad total de eses hoteles y sus componentes: cambios de eficiencia y tecnológicos. Cambios de eficiencia positivos se debieron más bien a eficiencias técnicas positivas que a eficiencias tecnológicas. El periodo de recesión ciertamente ha influenciado los Hoteles AC, que enfocaron más en los cambios organizacionales que en invirtiendo en tecnología

Human MLL/KMT2A gene exhibits a second breakpoint cluster region for recurrent MLL–USP2 fusions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq: PQ-2017#305529/2017-0Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG: MA 1876/12-1Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung: 88881.136091/2017-01RVO-VFN64165, 26/203.214/20172018.070.1Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro, AIRC: IG2015, 17593Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, CAPESCancer Australia: PdCCRS1128727CancerfondenBarncancerfondenVetenskapsrÃ¥det, VRCrafoordska StiftelsenKnut och Alice Wallenbergs StiftelseLund University Medical Faculty FoundationXiamen University, XMU2014S0617-74-30019C7838/A15733Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, SNSF: 31003A_140913CNIBInstitut National Du Cancer, INCaR01 NCI CA167824National Institutes of Health, NIH: S10OD0185222016/2017, 02R/2016AU 525/1-1Deutschen Konsortium für Translationale Krebsforschung, DKTK70112951Smithsonian Institution, SIIsrael Science Foundation, ISFAustrian Science Fund, FWF: W1212SFB-F06107, SFB-F06105Acknowledgements BAL received a fellowship provided by CAPES and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (#88881.136091/2017-01). ME is supported by CNPq (PQ-2017#305529/2017-0) and FAPERJ-JCNE (#26/203.214/2017) research scholarships, and ZZ by grant RVO-VFN64165. GC is supported by the AIRC Investigator grant IG2015 grant no. 17593 and RS by Cancer Australia grant PdCCRS1128727. This work was supported by grants to RM from the “Georg und Franziska Speyer’sche Hochsschulstiftung”, the “Wilhelm Sander foundation” (grant 2018.070.1) and DFG grant MA 1876/12-1.Acknowledgements This work was supported by The Swedish Childhood Cancer Foundation, The Swedish Cancer Society, The Swedish Research Council, The Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, BioCARE, The Crafoord Foundation, The Per-Eric and Ulla Schyberg Foundation, The Nilsson-Ehle Donations, The Wiberg Foundation, and Governmental Funding of Clinical Research within the National Health Service. Work performed at the Center for Translational Genomics, Lund University has been funded by Medical Faculty Lund University, Region Skåne and Science for Life Laboratory, Sweden.Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation 2016S016 China and Putian city Natural Science Foundation 2014S06(2), Fujian Province, China. Alexey Ste-panov and Alexander Gabibov were supported by Russian Scientific Foundation project No. 17-74-30019. Jinqi Huang was supported by a doctoral fellowship from Xiamen University, China.Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 31003A_140913; OH) and the Cancer Research UK Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre Network, Cardiff ECMCI, grant C7838/A15733. We thank N. Carpino for the Sts-1/2 double-KO mice.Acknowledgements This work was supported by the French National Cancer Institute (INCA) and the Fondation Française pour la Recherche contre le Myélome et les Gammapathies (FFMRG), the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM), NCI R01 NCI CA167824 and a generous donation from Matthew Bell. This work was supported in part through the computational resources and staff expertise provided by Scientific Computing at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Research reported in this paper was supported by the Office of Research Infrastructure of the National Institutes of Health under award number S10OD018522. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank the Association des Malades du Myélome Multiple (AF3M) for their continued support and participation. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer / World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer / World Health Organization.We are indebted to all members of our groups for useful discussions and for their critical reading of the manuscript. Special thanks go to Silke Furlan, Friederike Opitz and Bianca Killing. F.A. is supported by the Deutsche For-schungsgemeinschaft (DFG, AU 525/1-1). J.H. has been supported by the German Children’s Cancer Foundation (Translational Oncology Program 70112951), the German Carreras Foundation (DJCLS 02R/2016), Kinderkrebsstiftung (2016/2017) and ERA PerMed GEPARD. Support by Israel Science Foundation, ERA-NET and Science Ministry (SI). A. B. is supported by the German Consortium of Translational Cancer Research, DKTK. We are grateful to the Jülich Supercomputing Centre at the Forschungszemtrum Jülich for granting computing time on the supercomputer JURECA (NIC project ID HKF7) and to the “Zentrum für Informations-und Medientechnologie” (ZIM) at the Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf for providing computational support to H. G. The study was performed in the framework of COST action CA16223 “LEGEND”.Funding The work was supported by the Austrian Science Fund FWF grant SFB-F06105 to RM and SFB-F06107 to VS and FWF grant W1212 to VS

The scattering of SH waves by a finite crack with a superposition based diffraction technique

The problem of diffraction of cylindrical and plane SH waves by a finite crack is revisited -- We construct an approximate solution by the addition of independent diffracted terms -- We start with the derivation of the fundamental case of a semi-infinite crack obtained as a degenerate case of generalized wedge -- This building block is then used to compute the diffraction of the main incident waves -- The interaction between the opposite edges of the crack is then considered one term at a time until a desired tolerance is reached -- We propose a recipe to determine the number of required interactions as a function of frequency -- The solution derived with the superposition technique can be applied at low and high frequencie