How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment

This paper studies how changes in the two key parameters of unemployment insurance - the benefit replacement rate (RR) and the potential duration of benefits (PBD) - affect the duration of unemployment.In 1989, the Austrian government made unemployment insurance more generous by changing, simultaneously, the maximum duration of regular unemployment benefits and the earnings replacement ratio.We find that increasing the replacement ratio has much weaker disincentive effects than increasing the maximum duration of benefits.We use these results to split up the total costs to unemployment insurance funds into costs due to changes in the unemployment insurance system and costs due to behavioral responses of unemployed workers.Results indicate that costs due to behavioral responses are substantial.incentives;unemployment;unemployment insurance;policy

The Impact of Active Labor Market Programs and Benefit Entitlement Rules on the Duration of Unemployment

Swiss policy makers created a unique link between unemployment benefits and active labor market programs (ALMPs) by making benefit payments conditional on program attendance after 7 months of unemployment duration. We evaluate the effect of ALMPs and benefit entitlement on the duration of unemployment in Switzerland. In the evaluation we allow for selectivity affecting the inflow into programs. Our results indicate that (i) after ALMP- participation the transition rate to jobs increases fro Swiss women but not for Swiss men. However, the job hazard rate is strongly reduced during participation. Taken together, this leads to the conclusion that programs prolong unemployment duration for men, but tend to shorten durations for women. (ii) once the unemployment spell approaches the expiration of unconditional benefit entitlement the job-hazard rate increases strongly, both for women and for men. (iii) there are important selectivity effects for Swiss females, but not for Swiss males.active labor market policy;benefit entitlement;treatment effect;bivariate duration model

How Changes in Potential Benefit Duration Affect Equilibrium Unemployment

This paper uses microdata to evaluate the impact of an increase in maximum bene.t duration on the steady-state unemployment rate.We draw on policy changes in Austria that extended maximum benefit duration from 30 to 52 weeks for individuals above age 50 and from 30 to 39 weeks for individuals between ages 40 and 49.We use these changes to estimate the causal impact of benefit duration on labor market flows and find that (i) the policy changes lead to an increase in the steady-state unemployment rate between 20 % and 50 %; (ii) surprisingly, most of the increase is due to an increase in the inflow into unemployment, whereas the decrease in the outflow from unemployment is modest; (iii) the effects are stronger for women than for men, but are otherwise rather robust across population subgroups.

The Impact of Active Labor Market Programs and Benefit Entitlement Rules on the Duration of Unemployment

Swiss policy makers created a unique link between unemployment benefits and active labor market programs (ALMPs) by making benefit payments conditional on program attendance after 7 months of unemployment duration. We evaluate the effect of ALMPs and benefit entitlement on the duration of unemployment in Switzerland. In the evaluation we allow for selectivity affecting the inflow into programs. Our results indicate that (i) after ALMP- participation the transition rate to jobs increases fro Swiss women but not for Swiss men. However, the job hazard rate is strongly reduced during participation. Taken together, this leads to the conclusion that programs prolong unemployment duration for men, but tend to shorten durations for women. (ii) once the unemployment spell approaches the expiration of unconditional benefit entitlement the job-hazard rate increases strongly, both for women and for men. (iii) there are important selectivity effects for Swiss females, but not for Swiss males

Operator renewal theory and mixing rates for dynamical systems with infinite measure

We develop a theory of operator renewal sequences in the context of infinite ergodic theory. For large classes of dynamical systems preserving an infinite measure, we determine the asymptotic behaviour of iterates $L^n$ of the transfer operator. This was previously an intractable problem. Examples of systems covered by our results include (i) parabolic rational maps of the complex plane and (ii) (not necessarily Markovian) nonuniformly expanding interval maps with indifferent fixed points. In addition, we give a particularly simple proof of pointwise dual ergodicity (asymptotic behaviour of $\sum_{j=1}^nL^j$) for the class of systems under consideration. In certain situations, including Pomeau-Manneville intermittency maps, we obtain higher order expansions for $L^n$ and rates of mixing. Also, we obtain error estimates in the associated Dynkin-Lamperti arcsine laws.Comment: Preprint, August 2010. Revised August 2011. After publication, a minor error was pointed out by Kautzsch et al, arXiv:1404.5857. The updated version includes minor corrections in Sections 10 and 11, and corresponding modifications of certain statements in Section 1. All main results are unaffected. In particular, Sections 2-9 are unchanged from the published versio

The entropy of alpha-continued fractions: numerical results

We consider the one-parameter family of interval maps arising from generalized continued fraction expansions known as alpha-continued fractions. For such maps, we perform a numerical study of the behaviour of metric entropy as a function of the parameter. The behaviour of entropy is known to be quite regular for parameters for which a matching condition on the orbits of the endpoints holds. We give a detailed description of the set M where this condition is met: it consists of a countable union of open intervals, corresponding to different combinatorial data, which appear to be arranged in a hierarchical structure. Our experimental data suggest that the complement of M is a proper subset of the set of bounded-type numbers, hence it has measure zero. Furthermore, we give evidence that the entropy on matching intervals is smooth; on the other hand, we can construct points outside of M on which it is not even locally monotone.Comment: 33 pages, 14 figure

Temporal and spatial variations in the parasitoid complex of the horse chestnut leafminer during its invasion of Europe

The enemy release hypothesis posits that the initial success of invasive species depends on the scarcity and poor adaptation of native natural enemies such as predators and parasitoids. As for parasitoids, invading hosts are first attacked at low rates by a species-poor complex of mainly generalist species. Over the years, however, parasitoid richness may increase either because the invading host continuously encounters new parasitoid species during its spread (geographic spread-hypothesis) or because local parasitoids need different periods of time to adapt to the novel host (adjustment-hypothesis). Both scenarios should result in a continuous increase of parasitoid richness over time. In this study, we reconstructed the development of the hymenopteran parasitoid complex of the invasive leafminer Cameraria ohridella (Lepidoptera, Gracillariidae). Our results show that the overall parasitism rate increases as a function of host residence time as well as geographic and climatic factors, altogether reflecting the historic spread of C. ohridella. The same variables also explain the individual parasitism rates of several species in the parasitoid complex, but fail to explain the abundance of others. Evidence supporting the “geographic spread-hypothesis” was found in the parasitism pattern of Cirrospilus talitzkii (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae), while that of Pediobius saulius, another eulophid, indicated an increase of parasitism rates by behavioral, phenological or biological adjustments. Compared to fully integrated host-parasitoid associations, however, parasitism rates of C. ohridella are still very low. In addition, the parasitoid complex lacks specialists, provided that the species determined are valid and not complexes of cryptic (and presumably more specialized) species. Probably, the adjustment of specialist parasitoids requires more than a few decades, particularly to invaders which establish in ecological niches free of native hosts, thus eliminating any possibility of recruitment of pre-adapted parasitoids

Multiscale Systems, Homogenization, and Rough Paths:VAR75 2016: Probability and Analysis in Interacting Physical Systems

In recent years, substantial progress was made towards understanding convergence of fast-slow deterministic systems to stochastic differential equations. In contrast to more classical approaches, the assumptions on the fast flow are very mild. We survey the origins of this theory and then revisit and improve the analysis of Kelly-Melbourne [Ann. Probab. Volume 44, Number 1 (2016), 479-520], taking into account recent progress in $p$-variation and c\`adl\`ag rough path theory.Comment: 27 pages. Minor corrections. To appear in Proceedings of the Conference in Honor of the 75th Birthday of S.R.S. Varadha