Continuous Chain Ladder: Reformulating and generalizing a classical insurance problem

The single most important number in the accounts of a non-life insurance company is likely to be the estimate of the outlying liabilities. Since non-life insurance is a major part of our financial industry (amounting to up to 5% of BNP in western countries), it is perhaps surprising that mathematical statisticians and experts of operational research (the natural experts of the underlying problem) have left the intellectual work on estimating this number to actuaries. This paper establishes this important problem in a vocabulary accessible to experts of operations research and mathematical statistics and it can be seen as an open invitation to these two important groups of scholars to join this research. The paper introduces a number of new methodologies and approaches to estimating outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance. In particular it reformulates the classical actuarial technique as a histogram type of approach and improves this classical technique by replacing this histogram by a kernel smoother

All-optical dc nanotesla magnetometry using silicon vacancy fine structure in isotopically purified silicon carbide

We uncover the fine structure of a silicon vacancy in isotopically purified silicon carbide (4H-$^{28}$SiC) and find extra terms in the spin Hamiltonian, originated from the trigonal pyramidal symmetry of this spin-3/2 color center. These terms give rise to additional spin transitions, which are otherwise forbidden, and lead to a level anticrossing in an external magnetic field. We observe a sharp variation of the photoluminescence intensity in the vicinity of this level anticrossing, which can be used for a purely all-optical sensing of the magnetic field. We achieve dc magnetic field sensitivity of 87 nT Hz$^{-1/2}$ within a volume of $3 \times 10^{-7}$ mm$^{3}$ at room temperature and demonstrate that this contactless method is robust at high temperatures up to at least 500 K. As our approach does not require application of radiofrequency fields, it is scalable to much larger volumes. For an optimized light-trapping waveguide of 3 mm$^{3}$ the projection noise limit is below 100 fT Hz$^{-1/2}$.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures; additional experimental data and an extended theoretical analysis are added in the second versio

Spin fluctuations in the quasi-two dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet GdI_2 studied by Electron Spin Resonance

The spin dynamics of GdI_2 have been investigated by ESR spectroscopy. The temperature dependences of the resonance field and ESR intensity are well described by the model for the spin susceptibility proposed by Eremin et al. [Phys. Rev. B 64, 064425 (2001)]. The temperature dependence of the resonance linewidth shows a maximum similar to the electrical resistance and is discussed in terms of scattering processes between conduction electrons and localized spins.Comment: to be published in PR

Changes in the Isotopic Signature of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide and Its Global Average Source During the Last Three Millennia

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a strong greenhouse gas whose mole fraction in the atmosphere has increased over the industrial period. We present a new set of isotope measurements of N2O in air extracted from ice cores covering the last 3,000 years. For the preindustrial (PI) atmosphere, we find an average N2O mole fraction of (267 ± 1) nmol/mol and average tropospheric N2O isotopic values of δ15Nav PI = (9.5 ± 0.1)‰, δ18OPI = (47.1 ± 0.2)‰, δ15Nα PI = (17.8 ± 0.4)‰, and δ15Νβ PI = (1.2 ± 0.4)‰. From PI to modern times all isotope signatures decreased with a total change of δ15Nav = (−2.7 ± 0.2)‰, δ18O = (−2.5 ± 0.4)‰, δ15Nα = (−2.0 ± 0.7)‰, and δ15Νβ (−3.5 ± 0.7)‰. Interestingly, the temporal evolution is not the same for δ15Nav and δ18O. δ18O trends are relatively larger during the early part, and δ15Nav trends are larger during the late part of the industrial period, implying a decoupling of sources over the industrial period. Using a mass balance model, we determined the isotopic composition of the total average N2O source. Assuming that the total present source is the sum of a constant natural source and an increasing anthropogenic source, this anthropogenic source has an isotopic signature of δ15Nav source,anthrop = (−15.0 ± 2.6)‰, δ18Osource,anthrop = (30.0 ± 2.6)‰, δ15Nα source,anthrop = (−4.5 ± 1.7)‰, and δ15Nβ source,anthrop = (−24.0 ± 8.4)‰. The 15N site preference of the source has increased since PI times, which is indicative of a relative shift from denitrification to nitrification sources, consistent with agricultural emissions playing a major role in the N2O increase.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Prototyping of petalets for the Phase-II Upgrade of the silicon strip tracking detector of the ATLAS Experiment

In the high luminosity era of the Large Hadron Collider, the HL-LHC, the instantaneous luminosity is expected to reach unprecedented values, resulting in about 200 proton-proton interactions in a typical bunch crossing. To cope with the resultant increase in occupancy, bandwidth and radiation damage, the ATLAS Inner Detector will be replaced by an all-silicon system, the Inner Tracker (ITk). The ITk consists of a silicon pixel and a strip detector and exploits the concept of modularity. Prototyping and testing of various strip detector components has been carried out. This paper presents the developments and results obtained with reduced-size structures equivalent to those foreseen to be used in the forward region of the silicon strip detector. Referred to as petalets, these structures are built around a composite sandwich with embedded cooling pipes and electrical tapes for routing the signals and power. Detector modules built using electronic flex boards and silicon strip sensors are glued on both the front and back side surfaces of the carbon structure. Details are given on the assembly, testing and evaluation of several petalets. Measurement results of both mechanical and electrical quantities are shown. Moreover, an outlook is given for improved prototyping plans for large structures.Comment: 22 pages for submission for Journal of Instrumentatio

Reversible and Irreversible Interactions of Poly(3-hexylthiophene) with Oxygen Studied by Spin-Sensitive Methods

Understanding of degradation mechanisms in polymer:fullerene bulk-heterojunctions on the microscopic level aimed at improving their intrinsic stability is crucial for the breakthrough of organic photovoltaics. These materials are vulnerable to exposure to light and/or oxygen, hence they involve electronic excitations. To unambiguously probe the excited states of various multiplicities and their reactions with oxygen, we applied combined magneto-optical methods based on multifrequency (9 and 275 GHz) electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), photoluminescence (PL), and PL-detected magnetic resonance (PLDMR) to the conjugated polymer poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and polymer:fullerene bulk heterojunctions (P3HT:PCBM; PCBM = [6,6]-phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester). We identified two distinct photochemical reaction routes, one being fully reversible and related to the formation of polymer:oxygen charge transfer complexes, the other one, irreversible, being related to the formation of singlet oxygen under participation of bound triplet excitons on the polymer chain. With respect to the blends, we discuss the protective effect of the methanofullerenes on the conjugated polymer bypassing the triplet exciton generation

Enabling Technologies for Silicon Microstrip Tracking Detectors at the HL-LHC

While the tracking detectors of the ATLAS and CMS experiments have shown excellent performance in Run 1 of LHC data taking, and are expected to continue to do so during LHC operation at design luminosity, both experiments will have to exchange their tracking systems when the LHC is upgraded to the high-luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) around the year 2024. The new tracking systems need to operate in an environment in which both the hit densities and the radiation damage will be about an order of magnitude higher than today. In addition, the new trackers need to contribute to the first level trigger in order to maintain a high data-taking efficiency for the interesting processes. Novel detector technologies have to be developed to meet these very challenging goals. The German groups active in the upgrades of the ATLAS and CMS tracking systems have formed a collaborative "Project on Enabling Technologies for Silicon Microstrip Tracking Detectors at the HL-LHC" (PETTL), which was supported by the Helmholtz Alliance "Physics at the Terascale" during the years 2013 and 2014. The aim of the project was to share experience and to work together on key areas of mutual interest during the R&D phase of these upgrades. The project concentrated on five areas, namely exchange of experience, radiation hardness of silicon sensors, low mass system design, automated precision assembly procedures, and irradiations. This report summarizes the main achievements

Triplet Exciton Generation in Bulk-Heterojunction Solar Cells based on Endohedral Fullerenes

Organic bulk-heterojunctions (BHJ) and solar cells containing the trimetallic nitride endohedral fullerene 1-[3-(2-ethyl)hexoxy carbonyl]propyl-1-phenyl-Lu3N@C80 (Lu3N@C80-PCBEH) show an open circuit voltage (VOC) 0.3 V higher than similar devices with [6,6]-phenyl-C[61]-butyric acid methyl ester (PC61BM). To fully exploit the potential of this acceptor molecule with respect to the power conversion efficiency (PCE) of solar cells, the short circuit current (JSC) should be improved to become competitive with the state of the art solar cells. Here, we address factors influencing the JSC in blends containing the high voltage absorber Lu3N@C80-PCBEH in view of both photogeneration but also transport and extraction of charge carriers. We apply optical, charge carrier extraction, morphology, and spin-sensitive techniques. In blends containing Lu3N@C80-PCBEH, we found 2 times weaker photoluminescence quenching, remainders of interchain excitons, and, most remarkably, triplet excitons formed on the polymer chain, which were absent in the reference P3HT:PC61BM blends. We show that electron back transfer to the triplet state along with the lower exciton dissociation yield due to intramolecular charge transfer in Lu3N@C80-PCBEH are responsible for the reduced photocurrent

Surface electronic structure of the Fe3O4(100): Evidence of a half-metal to metal transition

In situ prepared Fe3O4(100) thin films were studied by means of scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and spin-polarized photoelectron spectroscopy (SP-PES). The atomically resolved (2×2)R45°wavelike surface atomic structure observed by STM is explained based on density functional theory (DFT) and ab initio atomistic thermodynamics calculations as a laterally distorted surface layer containing octahedral iron and oxygen, referred to as a modified B layer. The work-function value of the Fe3O4(100) surface extracted from the cutoff of the photoelectron spectra is in good agreement with that predicted from DFT. On the Fe3O4(100) surface both the SP-PES measurements and the DFT results show a strong reduction of the spin polarization at the Fermi level (EF) compared to the bulk density of states. The nature of the states in the majority band gap of the Fe3O4 surface layer is analyzed

Applying the effort-reward imbalance model to household and family work: a population-based study of German mothers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This paper reports on results of a newly developed questionnaire for the assessment of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) in unpaid household and family work. Methods: Using a cross-sectional population-based survey of German mothers (n = 3129) the dimensional structure of the theoretical ERI model was validated by means of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Analyses of Variance were computed to examine relationships between ERI and social factors and health outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CFA revealed good psychometric properties indicating that the subscale 'effort' is based on one latent factor and the subscale 'reward' is composed of four dimensions: 'intrinsic value of family and household work', 'societal esteem', 'recognition from the partner', and 'affection from the child(ren)'. About 19.3% of mothers perceived lack of reciprocity and 23.8% showed high rates of overcommitment in terms of inability to withdraw from household and family obligations. Socially disadvantaged mothers were at higher risk of ERI, in particular with respect to the perception of low societal esteem. Gender inequality in the division of household and family work and work-family conflict accounted most for ERI in household and family work. Analogous to ERI in paid work we could demonstrate that ERI affects self-rated health, somatic complaints, mental health and, to some extent, hypertension.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The newly developed questionnaire demonstrates satisfied validity and promising results for extending the ERI model to household and family work.</p