An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy

Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Undernutrition: Development of a Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Scenarios on Child Undernutrition

Background: Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health

Effect of night-time temperatures on cause and age-specific mortality in London.

BACKGROUND: High ambient temperatures are associated with an acute increase in mortality risk. Although heat exposure during the night is anecdotally cited as being important, this has not been rigorously demonstrated in the epidemiological literature. METHODS: We quantified the contribution of nighttime temperatures using time-series quasi-Poisson regression on cause and age-specific daily mortality in London between 1993 and 2015. Daytime and nighttime exposures were characterized by average temperatures between 9 am and 9 pm and between 4 am and 8 am, respectively, lagged by 7 days. We also examined the differential impacts of hot and cool nights preceded by very hot days. All models were adjusted for air quality, season, and day of the week. Nighttime models were additionally adjusted for daytime exposure. RESULTS: Effects from nighttime exposure persisted after adjusting for daytime exposure. This was highest for stroke, RR (relative risk) = 1.65 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.27 to 2.14) estimated by comparing mortality risk at the 80th and 99th temperature percentiles. Compared to daytime exposure, nighttime exposure had a higher mortality risk on chronic ischemic and stroke and in the younger age groups. Respiratory mortality was most sensitive to daytime temperatures. Hot days followed by hot nights had a greater mortality risk than hot days followed by cool nights. CONCLUSIONS: Nighttime exposures make an additional important contribution to heat-related mortality. This impact was highest on warm nights that were preceded by a hot day, which justifies the alert criteria in heat-health warning system that is based on hot days followed by hot nights. The highest mortality risk was from stroke; targeted interventions would benefit patients most susceptible to stroke

Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality

Climate change is expected to affect health through changes in exposure to weather disasters. Vulnerability to coastal flooding has decreased in recent decades but remains disproportionately high in low-income countries. We developed a new statistical model for estimating future storm surge-attributable mortality. The model accounts for sea-level rise and socioeconomic change, and allows for an initial increase in risk as low-income countries develop. We used observed disaster mortality data to fit the model, splitting the dataset to allow the use of a longer time-series of high intensity, high mortality but infrequent events. The model could not be validated due to a lack of data. However, model fit suggests it may make reasonable estimates of log mortality risk but that mortality estimates are unreliable. We made future projections with and without climate change (A1B) and sea-based adaptation, but given the lack of model validation we interpret the results qualitatively. In low-income countries, risk initially increases with development up to mid-century before decreasing. If implemented, sea-based adaptation reduces climate-associated mortality in some regions, but in others mortality remains high. These patterns reinforce the importance of implementing disaster risk reduction strategies now. Further, while average mortality changes discontinuously over time, vulnerability and risk are evolving conditions of everyday life shaped by socioeconomic processes. Given this, and the apparent importance of socioeconomic factors that condition risk in our projections, we suggest future models should focus on estimating risk rather than mortality. This would strengthen the knowledge base for averting future storm surge-attributable health impacts

El Niño and health

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate event that originates in the Pacific Ocean but has wide-ranging consequences for weather around the world, and is especially associated with droughts and floods. The irregular occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events has implications for public health. On a global scale, the human effect of natural disasters increases during El Niño. The effect of ENSO on cholera risk in Bangladesh, and malaria epidemics in parts of South Asia and South America has been well established. The strongest evidence for an association between ENSO and disease is provided by time-series analysis with data series that include more than one event. Evidence for ENSO's effect on other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases is weaker than that for malaria and cholera. Health planners are used to dealing with spatial risk concepts but have little experience with temporal risk management. ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts might offer the opportunity to target scarce resources for epidemic control and disaster preparedness

Using infectious intestinal disease surveillance data to explore illness aetiology; a cryptosporidiosis case study.

Infectious intestinal disease (IID) surveillance data are an under-utilised information source on illness geography. This paper uses a case study of cryptosporidiosis in England and Wales to demonstrate how these data can be converted into area-based rates and the factors underlying illness geography investigated. Ascertainment bias is common in surveillance datasets, and we develop techniques to investigate and control this. Rural areas, locations with many livestock and localities with poor water treatment had elevated levels of cryptosporidiosis. These findings accord with previous research validating the techniques developed. Their use in future studies investigating IID geography is therefore recommended

Effect of evacuation and displacement on the association between flooding and mental health outcomes: a cross-sectional analysis of UK survey data.

BACKGROUND: Extensive flooding occurred during the winter of 2013-14 in England. Previous studies have shown that flooding affects mental health. Using data from the 2013-14 Public Health England National Study of Flooding and Health, we compared the prevalence of symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder between participants displaced by flooding and those flooded, but not displaced, 1 year after flooding. METHODS: In this multivariable ordinal regression analysis, we collected data from a cross-sectional survey collected 1 year after the flooding event from flood-affected postcodes in five counties in England. The analysis was restricted to individuals whose homes were flooded (n=622) to analyse displacement due to flooding. The primary outcome measures were depression (measured by the PHQ-2 depression scale) and anxiety (measured by the two-item Generalised Anxiety Disorder [GAD]-2 anxiety scale), and post-traumatic stress disorder (measured by the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist [PCL]-6 scale). We adjusted analyses for recorded potential confounders. We also analysed duration of displacement and amount of warning received. FINDINGS: People who were displaced from their homes were significantly more likely to have higher scores on each scale; odds ratio (OR) for depression 1·95 (95% CI 1·30-2·93), for anxiety 1·66 (1·12-2·46), and for post-traumatic stress disorder 1·70 (1·17-2·48) than people who were not displaced. The increased risk of depression was significant even after adjustment for severity of flooding. Scores for depression and post-traumatic stress disorder were higher in people who were displaced and reported receiving no warning than those who had received a warning more than 12 h in advance of flooding (p=0·04 for depression, p=0·01 for post-traumatic stress disorder), although the difference in anxiety scores was not significant. INTERPRETATION: Displacement after flooding was associated with higher reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year after flooding. The amount of warning received showed evidence of being protective against symptoms of the three mental illnesses studied, and the severity of flooding might be the reason for some, but not all, of the differences between the groups. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Units (HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King's College London, Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, Public Health England

Impacts of Climate Change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources: In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change ; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture ; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems ; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis: We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment ; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems ; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions: Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes

The vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and climate services advisory board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialogue between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs, and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output