131 research outputs found

    Oil Shocks and Stock Return Volatility

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    Citation: Bachmeier, L. J. and Nadimi, S.R.. (2018) Oil Shocks and Stock Return Volatility. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. Submitted Manuscript.Asset return volatility is important to the macroeconomy. This paper asks whether oil price volatility can be used as a predictor of stock return volatility. In contrast with previous research, we focus on the out-of-sample predictive power of oil price volatility rather than on in-sample inference. Formal tests of out-of-sample predictive ability find no evidence supporting the use of oil price volatility as a predictor of future stock return volatility. Further analysis using rolling window estimation and structural break tests shows that the coefficients of this relationship are very unstable. The coefficients can be positive, negative, or close to zero depending on the sample that is chosen. We discuss the implications of this finding for monetary policy

    Non-exclusionary input prices

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    This paper models a vertically-integrated provider that is a monopoly supplier of an input that is essential for downstream production. An input price that is “too high” can lead to inefficient foreclosure and one that is “too low” creates incentives for non-price discrimination. The range of non-exclusionary input prices is circumscribed by the input prices generated on the basis of upper-bound and lower-bound displacement ratios. The admissible range of the ratio of downstream to upstream price-cost margins is increasing in the degree of product differentiation and reduces to a single ratio in the limit as the products become perfectly homogeneous

    CFD-DEM modelling of particle entrainment in wheel–rail interface: a parametric study on train characteristics

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    Rail-sanding is employed to improve the train’s wheel–rail traction loss in low adhesion conditions. This can significantly impede trains’ kinematics, operation, and performance by hindering the train’s acceleration and deceleration, resulting in delays and unreliability of transport system as well as causing safety risks and in the worst cases train collisions. Rail-sanding has its own merits in recovering the wheel–rail traction but can result in a sand wastage of more than 80% due to its low sand entrainment efficiency. In this research, computational fluid dynamics is coupled to discrete element modelling to study the behaviour of sand particles during rail-sanding. A parametric study based on the train characteristics, including train velocity, sand flow rate, and the geometry of the sander nozzle, is performed by comparing the entrainment efficiency of the sand particles. It is found that train velocities over 30 m/s result in the entrainment efficiency of almost zero. A moving air layer generated at the wheel–rail interface influences the lower bound of acceptable particle size range. The flow rate and nozzle geometry can be designed to enhance entrainment efficiency. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00707-024-04032-

    Modelling the adhesion enhancement induced by sand particle breakage at the wheel-rail interface

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    The adhesion at the wheel-rail contact is critical in train operation. Low adhesion leads to a longer distance for a train to accelerate and brake, and this may cause serious accidents. Sand particles are applied onboard trains at the wheel-rail contact to enhance the adhesion level. In this study, a finite element model is developed to investigate the mechanical behaviour of sand particles in a wheel-rail contact and how they affect the adhesion level. The acceleration and braking events using rolling/slipping and sliding contacts are simulated. Morphological properties of sand particles such as size and aspect ratio are considered. The adhesion enhancement is quantified from each simulation for comparison. The results indicate that the adhesion enhancement during the first contact between the wheel and sand particles is negligible and starts to increase when the wheel is rolling on the fragments. Its magnitude is controlled by the new third-body layers generated during the particle breakage under both rolling and sliding contacts. However, under sliding contact, when a similar amount of fragments is considered, the coarser particles with a larger aspect ratio tend to produce a higher adhesion enhancement

    Modelling adhesion enhancement in wheel-rail contact triggered by sand particles

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    Sanding is widely used in train operation to enhance the adhesion level in both braking and acceleration conditions. By employing cohesive interface elements (CIEs), a finite element method (FEM) is developed in this study to explore the adhesion enhancement triggered by sand particles. A wheel-rail model is developed and four different particle sizes areselected to observe the influence of fracture behaviour on the traction before and after the particle breakage. The coefficient of traction from the simulations are calculated and analysed. The results indicate that the adhesionenhancement is not affected by particle size, but the amount of fragments generated and the coefficient of traction is induced by wheel rolling on particle fragments

    Particle characterisation of rail sands for understanding tribological behaviour

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    Low adhesion between a train’s wheel and the rail can cause performance and safety issues, costing the UK rail industry ~£345 m/annum. Sand is applied to the wheel/rail interface to increase traction when low adhesion conditions are present. In order to improve performance, an understanding of how particles are entrained into and act within the interface is needed. This paper outlines a particle characterisation framework and applies it to sands used in the rail industry: Leighton Buzzard (LB), Central European (CE), and Derbyshire Youlgreave (DY) sand. The largest difference found in this framework was between the sand’s particle size, LB being largest, then CE, then DY. A high pressure torsion rig measured traction when the sands were applied to dry, wet, and leaf extract contaminated conditions, the latter two representing low adhesion conditions. All sands had no impact on wheel/rail adhesion in dry conditions; in low adhesion conditions DY had little influence, whereas LB and CE were found to increase traction. Particles in dry conditions had no effect on test specimen surface roughness, whereas roughness increased when sand was applied in low adhesion conditions. The developed characterisation framework provides a platform for assessing prospective adhesion enhancing particles

    Characterisation and Tribological Testing of Recycled Crushed Glass as an Alternative Rail Sand

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    In the UK Network Rail Environmental Sustainability Strategy 2020–2050, minimal waste and the sustainable use of materials are highlighted as core priorities. The ambition is to reuse, repurpose or redeploy all resources. In low adhesion conditions, sand particles are used to enhance traction throughout the network. However, sand is in danger of becoming scarce as many applications demand it. In this study, an alternative adhesion enhancing particle system made of recycled crushed glass is examined in terms of density, size, shape distribution, mineralogy, mechanical properties, and bulk behaviour to better understand their characteristics in comparison with the typical Great British rail sand currently in use and reported in the literature. Their effects on tribological behaviour and surface damage are also investigated using the High-Pressure Torsion test in dry, wet, and leaf-contaminated conditions. Both particle characterisation and tribological testing show promising results. Recycled glass particles provide an acceptable level of traction with a similar level of rail damage as typical rail sand. It is suggested to perform full-scale laboratory and field tests to further confirm the suitability of this material

    Optical Systems Identification through Rayleigh Backscattering

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    : We introduce a technique to generate and read the digital signature of the networks, channels, and optical devices that possess the fiber-optic pigtails to enhance physical layer security (PLS). Attributing a signature to the networks or devices eases the identification and authentication of networks and systems thus reducing their vulnerability to physical and digital attacks. The signatures are generated using an optical physical unclonable function (OPUF). Considering that OPUFs are established as the most potent anti-counterfeiting tool, the created signatures are robust against malicious attacks such as tampering and cyber attacks. We investigate Rayleigh backscattering signal (RBS) as a strong OPUF to generate reliable signatures. Contrary to other OPUFs that must be fabricated, the RBS-based OPUF is an inherent feature of fibers and can be easily obtained using optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR). We evaluate the security of the generated signatures in terms of their robustness against prediction and cloning. We demonstrate the robustness of signatures against digital and physical attacks confirming the unpredictability and unclonability features of the generated signatures. We explore signature cyber security by considering the random structure of the produced signatures. To demonstrate signature reproducibility through repeated measurements, we simulate the signature of a system by adding a random Gaussian white noise to the signal. This model is proposed to address services including security, authentication, identification, and monitoring
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