Novel properties of the Kohn-Sham exchange potential for open systems: application to the two-dimensional electron gas

The properties of the Kohn-Sham (KS) exchange potential for open systems in thermodynamical equilibrium, where the number of particles is non-conserved, are analyzed with the Optimized Effective Potential (OEP) method of Density Functional Theory (DFT) at zero temperature. The quasi two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) is used as an illustrative example. The main findings are that the KS exchange potential builds a significant barrier-like structure under slight population of the second subband, and that both the asymptotic value of the KS exchange potential and the inter-subband energy jump discontinuously at the one-subband (1S) -> two-subband (2S) transition. The results obtained in this system offer new insights on open problems of semiconductors, such as the band-gap underestimation and the band-gap renormalization by photo-excited carriers.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, uses epl.cls(included), accepted for publication in Europhysics Letter

A consistent approach for probabilistic residential flood loss modeling in Europe

In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth‐damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN‐FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN‐FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended

Review article "Assessment of economic flood damage"

Damage assessments of natural hazards supply crucial information to decision support and policy development in the fields of natural hazard management and adaptation planning to climate change. Specifically, the estimation of economic flood damage is gaining greater importance as flood risk management is becoming the dominant approach of flood control policies throughout Europe. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art and identifies research directions of economic flood damage assessment. Despite the fact that considerable research effort has been spent and progress has been made on damage data collection, data analysis and model development in recent years, there still seems to be a mismatch between the relevance of damage assessments and the quality of the available models and datasets. Often, simple approaches are used, mainly due to limitations in available data and knowledge on damage mechanisms. The results of damage assessments depend on many assumptions, e.g. the selection of spatial and temporal boundaries, and there are many pitfalls in economic evaluation, e.g. the choice between replacement costs or depreciated values. Much larger efforts are required for empirical and synthetic data collection and for providing consistent, reliable data to scientists and practitioners. A major shortcoming of damage modelling is that model validation is scarcely performed. Uncertainty analyses and thorough scrutiny of model inputs and assumptions should be mandatory for each damage model development and application, respectively. In our view, flood risk assessments are often not well balanced. Much more attention is given to the hazard assessment part, whereas damage assessment is treated as some kind of appendix within the risk analysis. Advances in flood damage assessment could trigger subsequent methodological improvements in other natural hazard areas with comparable time-space properties

Hiding in Plain Sight: A Longitudinal Study of Combosquatting Abuse

Domain squatting is a common adversarial practice where attackers register domain names that are purposefully similar to popular domains. In this work, we study a specific type of domain squatting called "combosquatting," in which attackers register domains that combine a popular trademark with one or more phrases (e.g., betterfacebook[.]com, youtube-live[.]com). We perform the first large-scale, empirical study of combosquatting by analyzing more than 468 billion DNS records---collected from passive and active DNS data sources over almost six years. We find that almost 60% of abusive combosquatting domains live for more than 1,000 days, and even worse, we observe increased activity associated with combosquatting year over year. Moreover, we show that combosquatting is used to perform a spectrum of different types of abuse including phishing, social engineering, affiliate abuse, trademark abuse, and even advanced persistent threats. Our results suggest that combosquatting is a real problem that requires increased scrutiny by the security community.Comment: ACM CCS 1

Interpolated wave functions for nonadiabatic simulations with the fixed-node quantum Monte Carlo method

Simulating nonadiabatic effects with many-body wave function approaches is an open field with many challenges. Recent interest has been driven by new algorithmic developments and improved theoretical understanding of properties unique to electron-ion wave functions. Fixed-node diffusion Monte Caro is one technique that has shown promising results for simulating electron-ion systems. In particular, we focus on the CH molecule for which previous results suggested a relatively significant contribution to the energy from nonadiabatic effects. We propose a new wave function ansatz for diatomic systems which involves interpolating the determinant coefficients calculated from configuration interaction methods. We find this to be an improvement beyond previous wave function forms that have been considered. The calculated nonadiabatic contribution to the energy in the CH molecule is reduced compared to our previous results, but still remains the largest among the molecules under consideration.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification

Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate

Impact‐based forecasting for pluvial floods

Pluvial floods in urban areas are caused by local, fast storm events with very high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings before the storm water reaches a watercourse. An increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and an ongoing urbanization may further increase the risk of pluvial flooding in many urban areas. Currently, warnings for pluvial floods are mostly limited to information on rainfall intensities and durations over larger areas, which is often not detailed enough to effectively protect people and goods. We present a proof-of-concept for an impact-based forecasting system for pluvial floods. Using a model chain consisting of a rainfall forecast, an inundation, a contaminant transport and a damage model, we are able to provide predictions for the expected rainfall, the inundated areas, spreading of potential contamination and the expected damage to residential buildings. We use a neural network-based inundation model, which significantly reduces the computation time of the model chain. To demonstrate the feasibility, we perform a hindcast of a recent pluvial flood event in an urban area in Germany. The required spatio-temporal accuracy of rainfall forecasts is still a major challenge, but our results show that reliable impact-based warnings can be forecasts are available up to 5 min before the peak of an extreme rainfall event. Based on our results, we discuss how the outputs of the impact-based forecast could be used to disseminate impact-based early warnings

"Of Mice and Measures": A Project to Improve How We Advance Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Therapies to the Clinic

A new line of dystrophic mdx mice on the DBA/2J (D2) background has emerged as a candidate to study the efficacy of therapeutic approaches for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). These mice harbor genetic polymorphisms that appear to increase the severity of the dystropathology, with disease modifiers that also occur in DMD patients, making them attractive for efficacy studies and drug development. This workshop aimed at collecting and consolidating available data on the pathological features and the natural history of these new D2/mdx mice, for comparison with classic mdx mice and controls, and to identify gaps in information and their potential value. The overall aim is to establish guidance on how to best use the D2/mdx mouse model in preclinical studies