Estimating the contribution of survival and recruitment to large scale population dynamics

At large spatial scales, variation in population abundance results from variation in the survival of reproducing adults and variation in the recruitment of new individuals. Which of these two parameters varies the most and how these parameters are correlated are fundamental questions if we want to understand the large-scale dynamics of such populations. I explore how Pradel's seniority (complement of the proportion of new individuals in the population) may help to answer such questions. I show that the sign of the correlation between temporal variation in seniority and of an independent measure of population growth rate should indicate whether population growth rate is more influenced by variation in survival or by variation in recruitment. Various predictions are proposed for evaluating the degree of regulation in the population (i.e., the existence of a negative correlation between survival and recruitment). Data from the French integrated breeding bird monitoring programme, combining point count surveys, from which population growth rate is estimated, and standardized capture-recapture, allowing the estimation of survival and seniority variation, were used to evaluate the method. Patterns of variation were examined for the four most frequently captured species, using data from 32 trapping sites covering 13 years (1989-2001). For Blackcap and Chiffchaff, the pattern is consistent with population growth rate being under the additive influence of survival and recruitment. For the Reed Warbler, the population appears to be strongly regulated, but with recruitment unable to compensate entirely for survival variation. For the Blackbird, the pattern is more confused and may indicate complex population dynamics, with non-linear relationships between survival, recruitment and population growth rate. Altogether, the method appears extremely promising and is particularly suitable for large scale monitoring of breeding birds by means of ringing

Effect of acute copper sulfate exposure on olfactory responses to amino acids and pheromones in goldfish (Carassius auratus)

Exposure of olfactory epithelium to environmentally relevant concentrations of copper disrupts olfaction in fish. To examine the dynamics of recovery at both functional and morphological levels after acute copper exposure, unilateral exposure of goldfish olfactory epithelia to 100 μM CuSO4 (10 min) was followed by electro-olfactogram (EOG) recording and scanning electron microscopy. Sensitivity to amino acids (L-arginine and L-serine), generally considered food-related odorants, recovered most rapidly (three days), followed by that to catecholamines(3-O-methoxytyramine),bileacids(taurolithocholic acid) and the steroid pheromone, 17,20 -dihydroxy-4-pregnen- 3-one 20-sulfate, which took 28 days to reach full recovery. Sensitivity to the postovulatory pheromone prostaglandin F2R had not fully recovered even at 28 days. These changes in sensitivity were correlated with changes in the recovery of ciliated and microvillous receptor cell types. Microvillous cells appeared largely unaffected by CuSO4 treatment. Cilia in ciliated receptor neurones, however, appeared damaged one day post-treatment and were virtually absent after three days but had begun to recover after 14 days. Together, these results support the hypothesis that microvillous receptor neurones detect amino acids whereas ciliated receptor neurones were not functional and are responsible for detection of social stimuli (bile acidsandpheromones).Furthermore, differences in sensitivity to copper may be due to different transduction pathways in the different cell types

Re-examining the consumption-wealth relationship : the role of model uncertainty

This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. Following the recent influential workof Lettau and Ludvigson [e.g. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), (2004)], we use data on consumption, assets andlabor income and a vector error correction framework. Key …ndings of their work are that consumption doesrespond to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, but that most changes in wealth are transitoryand have no e¤ect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty andargue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We …nd that there is model uncertainty with regards to thenumber of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag length and whether the cointegratingresiduals a¤ect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implicationsdepends on the researcher's attitude towards the economic theory used by Lettau and Ludvigson. If we workwith their model, our findings are very similar to theirs. However, if we work with a broader set of models andlet the data speak, we obtain somewhat di¤erent results. In the latter case, we …nd that the exact magnitudeof the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the viewthat their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play

Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics : a review of methods, evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals

© 2019 Cambridge Philosophical Society.Peer reviewedPostprin

Metabolic flexibility as a major predictor of spatial distribution in microbial communities

A better understand the ecology of microbes and their role in the global ecosystem could be achieved if traditional ecological theories can be applied to microbes. In ecology organisms are defined as specialists or generalists according to the breadth of their niche. Spatial distribution is often used as a proxy measure of niche breadth; generalists have broad niches and a wide spatial distribution and specialists a narrow niche and spatial distribution. Previous studies suggest that microbial distribution patterns are contrary to this idea; a microbial generalist genus (Desulfobulbus) has a limited spatial distribution while a specialist genus (Methanosaeta) has a cosmopolitan distribution. Therefore, we hypothesise that this counter-intuitive distribution within generalist and specialist microbial genera is a common microbial characteristic. Using molecular fingerprinting the distribution of four microbial genera, two generalists, Desulfobulbus and the methanogenic archaea Methanosarcina, and two specialists, Methanosaeta and the sulfate-reducing bacteria Desulfobacter were analysed in sediment samples from along a UK estuary. Detected genotypes of both generalist genera showed a distinct spatial distribution, significantly correlated with geographic distance between sites. Genotypes of both specialist genera showed no significant differential spatial distribution. These data support the hypothesis that the spatial distribution of specialist and generalist microbes does not match that seen with specialist and generalist large organisms. It may be that generalist microbes, while having a wider potential niche, are constrained, possibly by intrageneric competition, to exploit only a small part of that potential niche while specialists, with far fewer constraints to their niche, are more capable of filling their potential niche more effectively, perhaps by avoiding intrageneric competition. We suggest that these counter-intuitive distribution patterns may be a common feature of microbes in general and represent a distinct microbial principle in ecology, which is a real challenge if we are to develop a truly inclusive ecology

30 days wild: development and evaluation of a large-scale nature engagement campaign to improve well-being

There is a need to increase people’s engagement with and connection to nature, both for human well-being and the conservation of nature itself. In order to suggest ways for people to engage with nature and create a wider social context to normalise nature engagement, The Wildlife Trusts developed a mass engagement campaign, 30 Days Wild. The campaign asked people to engage with nature every day for a month. 12,400 people signed up for 30 Days Wild via an online sign-up with an estimated 18,500 taking part overall, resulting in an estimated 300,000 engagements with nature by participants. Samples of those taking part were found to have sustained increases in happiness, health, connection to nature and pro-nature behaviours. With the improvement in health being predicted by the improvement in happiness, this relationship was mediated by the change in connection to nature

Foot Muscle Energy Reserves in Diabetic Patients Without and With Clinical Peripheral Neuropathy

Objective: To investigate changes in the foot muscle energy reserves in diabetic non-neuropathic and neuropathic patients. Research Design and Methods: We measured the phosphocreatinine (PCr)/inorganic phosphate (Pi) ratio, total $^{31}$P concentration, and the lipid/water ratio in the muscles in the metatarsal head region using MRI spectroscopy in healthy control subjects and non-neuropathic and neuropathic diabetic patients. Results: The PCr/Pi ratio was higher in the control subjects (3.23 $\pm$ 0.43) followed by the non-neuropathic group (2.61 $\pm$ 0.36), whereas it was lowest in the neuropathic group (0.60 $\pm$ 1.02) (P < 0.0001). There were no differences in total $^{31}$P concentration and lipid/water ratio between the control and non-neuropathic groups, but both measurements were different in the neuropathic group (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Resting foot muscle energy reserves are affected before the development of peripheral diabetic neuropathy and are associated with the endothelial dysfunction and inflammation

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

A compact, multi-sensor laser scanning head for processing and monitoring micro-spot welding

In order to improve the reliability of micro-spot welding of metal parts in production such as e.g. in electron guns for TV picture tubes, real-time information about the evolution of the welding process should be available to allow on-line modification of the laser parameters. Such information can be derived from a set of sensors that are mounted on a laser-scanning head. Different sensors are used to monitor the optical fiber output power to determine the evolution of temperature during the spot welding process, to measure plasma emission and back-reflected laser light. A vision channel and a CCD camera are used to control the position of the laser spot on the parts to be processed. The compact scanning head is composed of a tip/tilt laser scanner, a collimating lens and a focusing lens. The scanner is fast steering, with a bandwidth of 700Hz, and can tilt by +/-3.5 degrees with a repeatability better than 50 mu rad. The settling time for maximum deflection is less than 10ms. The scanning lens is a newly developed focusing lens designed to replace commercial cumbersome scanning lenses such as F-theta lenses, which have large volume, weight and price. This lens is based on the well-known Cooke triplet design and guarantees a constant shape of the spot all over the scan surface and is specially well suited for high power beam delivery. The scan field achieved by the system is limited to 25mm x 25mm. The laser used for this application is a pulsed Nd:YAG laser delivered by an optical fiber to the optical head. However, the system can be adapted to different types of lasers. Laser micro-spot welding on copper substrate has been performed in the frame of the Brite-Euram project MAIL. Smaller tolerances (a factor of 2 less) on the spot diameters were obtained in the case of a sensor controlled operation compared to the case where sensor control is not used