The Multidimensional Study of Viral Campaigns as Branching Processes

Viral campaigns on the Internet may follow variety of models, depending on the content, incentives, personal attitudes of sender and recipient to the content and other factors. Due to the fact that the knowledge of the campaign specifics is essential for the campaign managers, researchers are constantly evaluating models and real-world data. The goal of this article is to present the new knowledge obtained from studying two viral campaigns that took place in a virtual world which followed the branching process. The results show that it is possible to reduce the time needed to estimate the model parameters of the campaign and, moreover, some important aspects of time-generations relationship are presented.Comment: In proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social Informatics, SocInfo 201

Validity of noncycloplegic refraction in the assessment of refractive errors: the Tehran Eye Study

Purpose: To determine the sensitivity and specificity of noncycloplegic autorefraction for determining refractive status compared to cycloplegic autorefraction. Methods: The target population was noninstitutionalized citizens of all ages, residing in Tehran in 2002, selected through stratified cluster sampling. From 6497 eligible residents, 70.3% participated in the study, from August to November 2002. Here, we report data on 3501 people over the age of 5 years who had autorefraction with and without cycloplegia (two drops of cyclopentolate 1.0% 5 min apart, with autorefraction 25 min after the second drop). Results: Overall, the sensitivity of noncycloplegic autorefraction for myopia was 99%, but the specificity was only 80.4%. In contrast, the sensitivity for hyperopia was only 47.9%, but the specificity was 99.4%. At all ages, noncycloplegic autorefraction overestimated myopia and underestimated hyperopia. Overestimation of myopia was highest in the 21-30 and 31-40 year groups. Underestimation of hyperopia was high up to the age of 50 (20-40%), but decreased with age, to about 8% after the age of 50, down to almost 0% after 70. The difference in mean spherical equivalent with and without cycloplegia fell from 0.71 dioptres (D) in the 5-10 age group to 0.14D in those over 70. Conclusion: Use of noncycloplegic autorefraction in epidemiological studies leads to considerable errors relative to cycloplegic measurements, except in those over 50-60. The difference between cycloplegic and noncycloplegic measurements varies with age and cycloplegic refractive category, and there is considerable individual variation, ruling out adjusting noncycloplegic measurements to obtain accurate cycloplegic refractions

Random Walks on Stochastic Temporal Networks

In the study of dynamical processes on networks, there has been intense focus on network structure -- i.e., the arrangement of edges and their associated weights -- but the effects of the temporal patterns of edges remains poorly understood. In this chapter, we develop a mathematical framework for random walks on temporal networks using an approach that provides a compromise between abstract but unrealistic models and data-driven but non-mathematical approaches. To do this, we introduce a stochastic model for temporal networks in which we summarize the temporal and structural organization of a system using a matrix of waiting-time distributions. We show that random walks on stochastic temporal networks can be described exactly by an integro-differential master equation and derive an analytical expression for its asymptotic steady state. We also discuss how our work might be useful to help build centrality measures for temporal networks.Comment: Chapter in Temporal Networks (Petter Holme and Jari Saramaki editors). Springer. Berlin, Heidelberg 2013. The book chapter contains minor corrections and modifications. This chapter is based on arXiv:1112.3324, which contains additional calculations and numerical simulation

Comparison of a User-Centered Design, Self-Management App to Existing mHealth Apps for Persons Living With HIV

Background: There is preliminary evidence that mobile health (mHealth) apps are feasible, attractive, and an effective platform for the creation of self-management tools for persons living with HIV (PLWH). As a foundation for the current study, we conducted formative research using focus groups, participatory design sessions, and usability evaluation methods to inform the development of a health management app for PLWH. The formative research resulted in identification of the following functional requirements of a mHealth app for self-management: (1) communication between providers and peers, (2) medication reminders, (3) medication log, (4) lab reports, (5) pharmacy information, (6) nutrition and fitness, (7) resources (eg, social services, substance use, video testimonials), (8) settings, and (9) search function. Objective: The purpose of this study was to conduct an ecological review of the existing apps for PLWH and to compare the functionality of existing apps with the app specifications identified in our formative work. Methods: We searched two mobile app stores (Google Play and iTunes) and found a total of 5606 apps. We reviewed the apps, narrowed our search terms, and found a total of 112 apps. Of these, we excluded 97 (86.6%) apps that were either not in English (10/112, 8.9%), not HIV focused (32/112, 28.9%), or focused only on HIV prevention (2/112, 7.8%); targeted health care providers (26/112, 23.2%); provided information only on conference schedules and events (7/112, 6.3%), fundraisers (7/112, 6.3%), specific clinics (7/112, 6.3%), international or narrow local resources (3/112, 2.7%); or were identified in the first search but were no longer on the market at the next review (4/112, 3.6%). The 15 apps meeting inclusion criteria were then evaluated for inclusion of the nine functionalities identified in our earlier work. Results: Of the 15 apps that we included in our final review, none had all of the functionalities that were identified in our formative work. The apps that we identified included the following functionalities: communication with providers and/or peers (4/15, 27%), medication reminders (6/15, 40%), medication logs (7/15, 47%), lab reports (5/15, 33%), pharmacy information (4/15, 27%), resources (7/15, 47%), settings (11/15, 73%), and search function (6/15, 40%). No apps included nutrition or fitness information. Conclusions: Currently, there are only a small number of apps that have been designed for PLWH to manage their health. Of the apps that are currently available, none have all of the desired functionalities identified by PLWH and experts in our formative research. Findings from this work elucidate the need to develop and evaluate mobile apps that meet PLWH’s desired functional specifications

The 2015 Chileno Valley glacial lake outburst flood, Patagonia

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have become increasingly common over the past century in response to climate change, posing risks for human activities in many mountain regions. In this paper we document and reconstruct the sequence of events and impact of a large GLOF that took place in December 2015 in the Chileno Valley, Patagonia. Hydrograph data suggests that the flood continued for around eight days with an estimated total discharge of 105.6 × 106 m3 of water. The sequence of events was as follows: (1) A large debris flow entered the lake from two steep and largely non-vegetated mountain gullies located northeast of the Chileno Glacier terminus. (2) Water displaced in the lake by the debris flow increased the discharge through the Chileno Lake outflow. (3) Lake and moraine sediments were eroded by the flood. (4) Eroded sediments were redistributed downstream by the GLOF. The post-GLOF channel at the lake outlet widened in some places by >130 m and the surface elevation of the terrain lowered by a maximum of 38.8 ± 1.5 m. Farther downstream, large amounts of entrained sediment were deposited at the head of an alluvial plain and these sediments produced an ~340 m wide fan with an average increase in surface elevation over the pre-GLOF surface of 4.6 ± 1.5 m. We estimate that around 3.5 million m3 of material was eroded from the flood-affected area whilst over 0.5 million m3 of material was deposited in the downstream GLOF fan. The large debris flow that triggered the GLOF was probably a paraglacial response to glacier recession from its Little Ice Age limits. We suggest that GLOFs will continue to occur in these settings in the future as glaciers further recede in response to global warming and produce potentially unstable lakes. Detailed studies of GLOF events are currently limited in Patagonia and the information presented here will therefore help to inform future glacial hazard assessments in this region

Analyse fractale par morceaux de radiographies osseuses

- L'objectif de cette étude est de proposer, à partir du mouvement brownien fractionnaire (fBm) de paramètre H, un modèle plus général qui puisse englober des phénomènes présentant un caractère fractal par morceaux lors d'une analyse en fréquence. Ce nouveau modèle est appelé pfBm de paramètres Ho en basse fréquence, Hi en haute fréquence, ces deux régimes étant séparés par une fréquence de coupure γ. Pour Ho=Hi=H, le pfBm se réduit au fBm, lui même étant le mouvement brownien pour H=0.5. Nous pensons que le pfBm fournit ainsi un outil plus flexible que le fBm pour l'expérimentateur. Nous avons montré que ce processus a des incréments stationnaires et qu'il est autosimilaire de paramètre Ho pour les basses fréquences et de paramètre Hi pour les hautes fréquences. Nous avons alors étudié des radiographies trabéculaires osseuses qui présentent ce caractère bifractal. Les résultats montrent que l'analyse fractale par morceaux est plus efficace que l'analyse fractale standard pour diagnostiquer les modifications de la micro-architecture osseuse liées à l'ostéoporose

Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model

The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that drives the system toward consensus configurations.Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 table