Applications of Bayesian model selection to cosmological parameters

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into account the information gained through the data, when updating the prior distribution to the posterior. On the contrary, Bayesian model selection offers a quantitative implementation of Occam's razor. I introduce the Savage-Dickey density ratio, a computationally quick method to determine the Bayes factor of two nested models and hence perform model selection. As an illustration, I consider three key parameters for our understanding of the cosmological concordance model. By using WMAP 3-year data complemented by other cosmological measurements, I show that a non-scale invariant spectral index of perturbations is favoured for any sensible choice of prior. It is also found that a flat Universe is favoured with odds of 29:1 over non--flat models, and that there is strong evidence against a CDM isocurvature component to the initial conditions which is totally (anti)correlated with the adiabatic mode (odds of about 2000:1), but that this is strongly dependent on the prior adopted. These results are contrasted with the analysis of WMAP 1-year data, which were not informative enough to allow a conclusion as to the status of the spectral index. In a companion paper, a new technique to forecast the Bayes factor of a future observation is presented.Comment: v2 to v3: minor changes, matches accepted version by MNRAS. v1 to v2: major revision. New results using WMAP 3-yr data, scale-invariant spectrum now disfavoured with moderate evidence. New benchmark test for the accuracy of the method. Bayes factor forecast methodology (PPOD, formerly called ExPO) expanded and now presented in a companion paper (astro-ph/0703063

Assessing the impact of agricultural forage crops on soil biodiversity and abundance

AbstractMaintaining soil biodiversity and function is key to maintaining soil health, nutrient cycling and decomposition. Different forage species have variable concentrations of essential nutrients and rooting patterns, potentially affecting soil biology and soil–plant–animal interactions. Our study compared the effect of growing different forage crops on soil faunal diversity and abundance. Plots of chicory (Cichorium intybus), red clover (Trifolium pratense), white clover (Trifolium repens) or perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) were established in 2009 and maintained over a four year period. Soil faunal samples were taken, including soil mesofauna, nematodes and earthworms, at the end of this period in autumn 2012 and spring 2013. Significant differences were found between the forages for a number of biological groups, as well as some seasonal differences; overall earthworm abundance and biomass was higher within the white clover treatment, specifically anecic earthworms. Nematode functional groups were found to differ, with greater numbers of fungal feeders in the clovers and chicory treatments, whilst the herbivores had the greatest abundances in the two ryegrass treatments. Overall the microarthropod order abundances did not differ, however two collembolan superfamilies did show differences between treatments with the detritivorous Poduromorpha having a higher abundance in the clovers and chicory treatment and the herbivorous Symphypleona had a higher abundance in the ryegrass treatment. Relatively little is known about the links between soil biology and the effects of plant type because of the complex nature of soil, however here we have begun to reveal some of these linkages. Overall, the findings indicate a relationship between ryegrass and herbivorous invertebrates, whilst the other forages have a stronger relationship with decomposer invertebrates; changing the dominance within the soil food web dependent on forage type

Progress in Developing Hybrid RPCs: GEM-like Detectors with Resistive Electrodes

We have recently developed an innovative detector of photons and charged particles: a GEM-like gaseous amplification structure with resistive electrodes instead of commonly used metallic ones. This novel detector combines the best property of GEMs- the capability to operate in a cascaded mode and in poorly quenched gases - and of RPC: the protection against sparks. In this paper will shortly review our latest achievements in this direction, however the main focus will be given on a new advanced design that allows to build large area detectors manufactured by a screen printing technology. The proposed detector, depending on the applications, can operate either in a GEM mode (electron multiplications through holes only) or as a hybrid RPC with simultaneous amplifications in the drift region and in the holes. The possible applications of this new detector will be discussed

Participatory research approaches to integrating scientific and farmer knowledge of soil to meet multiple objectives in the English East Midlands

Soil management influences food production, economic performance of farm businesses, and a range of public benefits such as water quality, flood control and aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of participatory research in combining scientific and farmer knowledge of soils to meet these multiple objectives. We use five separate research studies involving communication, consultation and co‐production, carried out in the English East Midlands between 2014 and 2018.We compare the participatory processes for knowledge exchange and their material outcomes and assess them retrospectively against specified criteria for successful application of participatory research. We conclude that, depending on context and scalar fit, multiple approaches to participatory research can be complementary, strengthen engagement and build trust within a farming community, resulting in a greater shared understanding of how to address the soil management objectives of farmers and wider society

New results from an extensive aging test on bakelite Resistive Plate Chambers

We present recent results of an extensive aging test, performed at the CERN Gamma Irradiation Facility on two single--gap RPC prototypes, developed for the LHCb Muon System. With a method based on a model describing the behaviour of an RPC under high particle flux conditions, we have periodically measured the electrode resistance R of the two RPC prototypes over three years: we observe a large spontaneous increase of R with time, from the initial value of about 2 MOhm to more than 250 MOhm. A corresponding degradation of the RPC rate capabilities, from more than 3 kHz/cm2 to less than 0.15 kHz/cm2 is also found.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures, presented at Siena 2002, 8th Topical Seminar on Innovative Particle and Radiation Detectors 21-24 October 2002, Siena, Ital

Enhanced signal of astrophysical tau neutrinos propagating through Earth

Earth absorbs \nue and \numu of energies above about 100 TeV. As is well-known, although \nutau will also disappear through charged-current interactions, the \nutau flux will be regenerated by prompt tau decays. We show that this process also produces relatively large fluxes of secondary \nube and \nubmu, greatly enhancing the detectability of the initial \nutau. This is particularly important because at these energies \nutau is a significant fraction of the expected astrophysical neutrino flux, and only a tiny portion of the atmospheric neutrino flux.Comment: Four pages, two inline figure

The Role of Tradition in the Study of Religion: The Case of Ancient Israel

Naturally, contributions from places other than this one will be encouraged, indeed, sought. There could be no other way to promote a more wide understanding of Religion in Australia, than this. Religious Traditions journal in other words, though meant in part to be the product of a need felt among Australian "religionists", must, by dint of that very fact, take its place besides other international Journals in the field.

Fatigue induced changes to kinematic and kinetic gait parameters following six minutes of walking in people with Multiple Sclerosis

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Disability and Rehabilitation on 20 May 2015, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/09638288.2015.1047969Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of 6 min of walking on fatigue, exertion and spatiotemporal, kinematic and kinetic gait parameters in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: Thirty-four people with MS with moderate levels of disability completed measures of fatigue, exertion and instrumented gait analysis before and after 6-min trials of rest and walking (using a modified 6-min walk test, m6MWT). Ten age- and gender-matched healthy controls completed analysis before and after the m6MWT. Results: The MS group had a significant increase in self-reported fatigue following the m6MWT; however, there was no effect on spatiotemporal gait parameters. During stance on the more affected side ankle dorsiflexion at initial contact decreased, while knee and hip flexor moments and hip power absorption increased. On the less affected side ankle and knee power absorption, and hip extensor moment all increased. Healthy controls showed increases in joint kinetics likely due to increased walking speeds following m6MWT. Conclusion: For people with MS, ankle dorsiflexion angle reduces at initial contact following walking induced fatigue, while increased power absorption at the hip, knee and ankle indicate gait inefficiencies that may contribute to higher levels of fatigue and exertion. Implications for Rehabilitation The modified 6-min walk test (m6MWT) leads to significant increases in self-reported fatigue and exertion in people with MS. Following the m6MWT, there is significantly reduced ankle dorsiflexion angle at initial contact in the more affected leg in people with MS. This reveals an important walking-induced kinematic change that should be the target of future orthotic and strengthening interventions. In people with MS, increased power absorption primarily during the stance phase of gait following the m6MWT reveals important walking-induced muscle weakness that should also be monitored in future strengthening and gait retraining interventions

RNA virus error catastrophe: Direct molecular test by using ribavirin

RNA viruses evolve rapidly. One source of this ability to rapidly change is the apparently high mutation frequency in RNA virus populations. A high mutation frequency is a central tenet of the quasispecies theory. A corollary of the quasispecies theory postulates that, given their high mutation frequency, animal RNA viruses may be susceptible to error catastrophe, where they undergo a sharp drop in viability after a modest increase in mutation frequency. We recently showed that the important broad-spectrum antiviral drug ribavirin (currently used to treat hepatitis C virus infections, among others) is an RNA virus mutagen, and we proposed that ribavirin's antiviral effect is by forcing RNA viruses into error catastrophe. However, a direct demonstration of error catastrophe has not been made for ribavirin or any RNA virus mutagen. Here we describe a direct demonstration of error catastrophe by using ribavirin as the mutagen and poliovirus as a model RNA virus. We demonstrate that ribavirin's antiviral activity is exerted directly through lethal mutagenesis of the viral genetic material. A 99.3% loss in viral genome infectivity is observed after a single round of virus infection in ribavirin concentrations sufficient to cause a 9.7-fold increase in mutagenesis. Compiling data on both the mutation levels and the specific infectivities of poliovirus genomes produced in the presence of ribavirin, we have constructed a graph of error catastrophe showing that normal polio-virus indeed exists at the edge of viability. These data suggest that RNA virus mutagens may represent a promising new class of antiviral drugs