Oceanic hindcast simulations at high resolution suggest that the Atlantic MOC is bistable

All climate models predict a freshening of the North Atlantic at high latitude that may induce an abrupt change of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (hereafter AMOC) if it resides in the bistable regime, where both a strong and a weak state coexist. The latter remains uncertain as there is no consensus among observations and ocean reanalyses, where the AMOC is bistable, versus most climate models that reproduce a mono-stable strong AMOC. A series of four hindcast simulations of the global ocean at 1/12° resolution, which is presently unique, are used to diagnose freshwater transport by the AMOC in the South Atlantic, an indicator of AMOC bistability. In all simulations, the AMOC resides in the bistable regime: it exports freshwater southward in the South Atlantic, implying a positive salt advection feedback that would act to amplify a decreasing trend in subarctic deep water formation as projected in climate scenarios

Marine Dynamics and Productivity in the Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal provides important ecosystem services to the Bangladesh delta. It is also subject to the consequences of climate change as monsoon atmospheric circulation and fresh water input from the major rivers are the dominating influences. Changes in marine circulation will affect patterns of biological production through alterations in the supply of nutrients to photosynthesising plankton. Productivity in the northern Bay will also be sensitive to changes in riverborne nutrients. In turn, these changes could influence potential fish catch. The Bay also affects the physical environment of Bangladesh: relative sea-level rise is expected to be in the range of 0.5–1.7 m by 2100, and changing climate could affect the development of tropical cyclones over the Bay

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes

Delta O-18 and salinity variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to Recent in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea

Oxygen isotopes of surface, thermocline and bottom dwelling foraminifera were analysed from two well dated Andaman Sea cores and combined with nine previously published records from the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Andaman Sea to create a transect spanning 20 degrees N to 5 degrees N. Combined with temperature estimates and the observed seawater delta O-18-salinity relationship, these data are used to estimate past changes in BoB salinity structure. Compared to modern, mid-Holocene (9-6 cal ka BP) surface waters in the northern BoB were 2.5 ps mu (8%) fresher, Andaman Sea were 3.8 ps mu, (12%) fresher, and southern BoB were 1.2 ps mu. (3.5%) fresher. Conversely, during the last glacial maximum (LGM), surface waters in the northern BoB were 2.9 ps mu (9%) more saline while Andaman Sea were essentially unchanged and southern BoB were 1.7 ps mu (4.9%) more saline compared to modern. The relative freshness of the Andaman during the last glacial maximum is likely the result of basin morphology during sea level low stand, resulting in reduced surface water mixing with the open BoB as well as shelf emergence, causing increased proximity of the core locations to river outflow. Sensitivity experiments using a regional ocean model indicate that the increased mid-Holocene north to south (20 degrees N to 5 degrees N) salinity gradient can be achieved with a 50% increase in precipitation/runoff while the decreased glacial age gradient can be achieved with a 50% reduction in precipitation/runoff. During the deglaciation, both surface and thermocline-dwelling species in the Andaman and northern BoB exhibit depleted delta O-18 within the Younger Dryas (YD), indicating colder and/or more saline conditions. None of the records from the southern BoB site have clear YD structure, possibly due to the combined effects of bioturbation and low sedimentation rates

On tridimensional rip current modeling

Do lateral shear instabilities of nearshore circulation account for a substantial part of Very Low-Frequency (VLF) variability? If yes, it would promote stirring and mixing of coastal waters and surf-shelf exchanges. Another question is whether tridimensional transient processes are important for instability generation. An innovative modeling system with tridimensional wave-current interactions was designed to investigate transient nearshore currents and interactions between nearshore and innershelf circulations. We present here some validation of rip current modeling for the Aquitanian coast of France, using in-situ and remote video sensing. We then proceed to show the benefits of 3D versus 2D (depth-mean flow) modeling of rip currents and their low-frequency variability. It appears that a large part of VLF motions is due to intrinsic variability of the tridimensional flow. 3D models may thus provide a valuable, only marginally more expensive alternative to conventional 2D approaches that miss the vertical flow structure and its nonlinear interaction with the depth-averaged flow

Improvements of simulated Western North Atlantic current system and impacts on the AMOC

Previous studies have shown that low horizontal resolution (of the order of 1°) ocean models, hence climate models, are not able to adequately represent boundary currents nor mesoscale processes which affect the dynamics and thermohaline circulation of the ocean. While the effect of mesoscale eddies can be parameterized in low resolution models, boundary currents require relatively high horizontal resolution. We clarify the impact of increasing the resolution on the North Atlantic circulation, with emphasis on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), by embedding a 1/8° nest covering the North Atlantic into a global 1/2° model. Increasing the resolution in the nest leads to regional improvements of the circulation and thermohaline properties in the Gulf Stream area, for the North Atlantic Current, in the subpolar gyre and the Nordic Seas, consistent with those of previous studies. In addition, we show that the Deep Western Boundary Current dense water transport increases with the nest, from the overflows down to Flemish Cap, due to an increase in the Denmark Strait overflow as well as dense water formation in the subpolar gyre. This increases the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in density space by about 8 Sv in the subpolar gyre in the nested configuration. When exiting the Labrador Sea around 53°N we illustrate that the Deep Western Boundary Current successively interacts with the upper ocean circulation composed with the North Atlantic Current in the intergyre region, the Northern Recirculation Gyre, and the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras. This surface/deep current interaction seems to induce an increase of the AMOC intensity in depth-space, giving rise to an AMOC maximum near 35°N. This process is missing in the configuration without nesting. At 26.5°N, the AMOC is 4 Sv larger in the nested configuration and is in good agreement with observations. Finally, beyond the nest imprint (i.e. in the low resolution area) in the South Atlantic the AMOC maximum at 40°S is 3 Sv larger at the end of the simulation meaning that information is able to propagate outside the nest without being fully damped. This underlines the benefit of using the nest for a reasonable computing time compared to a fully global higher resolution configuration

Numerical modelling of hydraulic control, solitary waves and primary instabilities in the Strait of Gibraltar

A two-dimensional, vertical section of the Strait of Gibraltar is simulated numerically with the nonhydrostatic/ non-Boussinesq three-dimensional CROCO model to investigate details of small-scale dynamics. The proposed configuration is simple, computationally efficient and incorporates the configuration of sills characteristic of this region. Despite the shortcomings of a 2D representation, this configuration provides a realistic depiction of small-scale mechanisms in the strait during a typical tidal cycle: internal solitary waves generation and propagation, occurrence of hydraulic controls and hydraulic jumps at the sills and presence of active turbulent patches. In particular, the well-known eastward propagation of large amplitude internal waves is assessed using the Korteweg de Vries (KdV) propagation model for solitary waves. As a step towards establishing a realistic three-dimensional Large Eddy Simulation (LES), the sensitivity of the configuration to various choices (e.g., resolution, amplitude of tidal forcing or numerical schemes) is investigated. Our analyses indicate that the representation of small-scale dynamics in the Strait of Gibraltar can be much improved by increasing resolution and relaxing the hydrostatic assumption. Further studies are necessary to grasp the mechanisms of mixing and/or stirring induced by this fine scale process

Lidar observations of the swash zone of a low-tide terraced tropical beach under variable wave conditions : the Nha Trang (Vietnam) COASTVAR experiment

A field experiment was conducted at a tropical microtidal intermediate sandy beach with a low tide terrace (Nha Trang, Vietnam) to investigate the short-term swash-zone hydrodynamics and morphodynamics under variable wave conditions. Continuous 2D Lidar scanner observations of wave height at the lower foreshore, subsequent run-up and swash-induced topographic changes were obtained. These data were complemented by detailed real-time kinematic GPS topographic surveys. Variable wave and tide conditions were experienced during the field experiment with relatively large swell waves (offshore significant wave height, H-s = 0.9 m to 1.3 m; peak wave period, T-p = 8 to 12 s) concomitant with spring tides at the beginning of the period, followed by mild wind waves (offshore H-s under 0.5 m and T-p 5 s) and neap tides. This resulted in the following morphological sequence: berm erosion followed by rapid neap berm reformation and beach recovery within a few days. New insights into the link between intra-tidal swash dynamics and daily beach profile evolution were found using the Lidar dataset. While waves directly cause morphology changes on a wave-by-wave basis, tidal levels were found to be a key factor in determining the morphological wave-effect (accretive or erosive) due to modulated interaction between surf and swash hydro-morphodynamics

COASTVAR 2015-2018 : caractérisation de la variabilité littorale en Afrique de l'Ouest par une étude multi-échelle et multi-méthode [résumé]

International Conference AWA (ICAWA), Dakar, SEN, 09-/12/2014 - 11/12/201