Developing and validating subjective and objective risk-assessment measures for predicting mortality after major surgery: An international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative risk prediction is important for guiding clinical decision-making and resource allocation. Clinicians frequently rely solely on their own clinical judgement for risk prediction rather than objective measures. We aimed to compare the accuracy of freely available objective surgical risk tools with subjective clinical assessment in predicting 30-day mortality. Methods and findings: We conducted a prospective observational study in 274 hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, and New Zealand. For 1 week in 2017, prospective risk, surgical, and outcome data were collected on all adults aged 18 years and over undergoing surgery requiring at least a 1-night stay in hospital. Recruitment bias was avoided through an ethical waiver to patient consent; a mixture of rural, urban, district, and university hospitals participated. We compared subjective assessment with 3 previously published, open-access objective risk tools for predicting 30-day mortality: the Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality (P-POSSUM), Surgical Risk Scale (SRS), and Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT). We then developed a logistic regression model combining subjective assessment and the best objective tool and compared its performance to each constituent method alone. We included 22,631 patients in the study: 52.8% were female, median age was 62 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46 to 73 years), median postoperative length of stay was 3 days (IQR 1 to 6), and inpatient 30-day mortality was 1.4%. Clinicians used subjective assessment alone in 88.7% of cases. All methods overpredicted risk, but visual inspection of plots showed the SORT to have the best calibration. The SORT demonstrated the best discrimination of the objective tools (SORT Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88–0.92; P-POSSUM = 0.89, 95% CI 0.88–0.91; SRS = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82–0.87). Subjective assessment demonstrated good discrimination (AUROC = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86–0.91) that was not different from the SORT (p = 0.309). Combining subjective assessment and the SORT improved discrimination (bootstrap optimism-corrected AUROC = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.90–0.94) and demonstrated continuous Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06–0.20, p < 0.001) compared with subjective assessment alone. Decision-curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the superiority of the SORT over other previously published models, and the SORT–clinical judgement model again performed best overall. Our study is limited by the low mortality rate, by the lack of blinding in the ‘subjective’ risk assessments, and because we only compared the performance of clinical risk scores as opposed to other prediction tools such as exercise testing or frailty assessment. Conclusions: In this study, we observed that the combination of subjective assessment with a parsimonious risk model improved perioperative risk estimation. This may be of value in helping clinicians allocate finite resources such as critical care and to support patient involvement in clinical decision-making

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity

Customized Treatment in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Based on EGFR Mutations and BRCA1 mRNA Expression

BACKGROUND: Median survival is 10 months and 2-year survival is 20% in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. A small fraction of non-squamous cell lung cancers harbor EGFR mutations, with improved outcome to gefitinib and erlotinib. Experimental evidence suggests that BRCA1 overexpression enhances sensitivity to docetaxel and resistance to cisplatin. RAP80 and Abraxas are interacting proteins that form complexes with BRCA1 and could modulate the effect of BRCA1. In order to further examine the effect of EGFR mutations and BRCA1 mRNA levels on outcome in advanced NSCLC, we performed a prospective non-randomized phase II clinical trial, testing the hypothesis that customized therapy would confer improved outcome over non-customized therapy. In an exploratory analysis, we also examined the effect of RAP80 and Abraxas mRNA levels. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We treated 123 metastatic non-squamous cell lung carcinoma patients using a customized approach. RNA and DNA were isolated from microdissected specimens from paraffin-embedded tumor tissue. Patients with EGFR mutations received erlotinib, and those without EGFR mutations received chemotherapy with or without cisplatin based on their BRCA1 mRNA levels: low, cisplatin plus gemcitabine; intermediate, cisplatin plus docetaxel; high, docetaxel alone. An exploratory analysis examined RAP80 and Abraxas expression. Median survival exceeded 28 months for 12 patients with EGFR mutations, and was 11 months for 38 patients with low BRCA1, 9 months for 40 patients with intermediate BRCA1, and 11 months for 33 patients with high BRCA1. Two-year survival was 73.3%, 41.2%, 15.6% and 0%, respectively. Median survival was influenced by RAP80 expression in the three BRCA1 groups. For example, for patients with both low BRCA1 and low RAP80, median survival exceeded 26 months. RAP80 was a significant factor for survival in patients treated according to BRCA1 levels (hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1-1.7]; P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Chemotherapy customized according to BRCA1 expression levels is associated with excellent median and 2-year survival for some subsets of NSCLC patients , and RAP80 could play a crucial modulating effect on this model of customized chemotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (ClinicalTrials.gov) NCT00883480

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700