Count the cost of disability caused by COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic is well into its second year, but countries are only beginning to grapple with the lasting health crisis. In March, a UK consortium reported that 1 in 5 people who were hospitalized with the disease had a new disability after discharge1. A large US study found similar effects for both hospitalized and non-hospitalized people2. Among adults who were not hospitalized, 1 in 10 have ongoing symptoms 12 weeks after a positive test3. Treatment services for the long-term consequences of COVID-19 are already having to be absorbed into health and care systems urgently. Tackling this requires a much clearer picture of the burden of the disease than currently exists

Ethnic differences in cancer symptom awareness and barriers to seeking medical help in England

Background: Ethnic differences in cancer symptom awareness and barriers to seeking medical help in the English population are not fully understood. We aimed to quantify these differences, to help develop more effective health campaigns, tailored to the needs of different ethnic groups. Methods: Using a large national data set (n=38492) of cross-sectional surveys that used the Cancer Research UK Cancer Awareness Measure, we examined how cancer symptom awareness and barriers varied by ethnicity, controlling for socio-economic position, age and gender. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Awareness of cancer symptoms was lower in minority ethnic groups than White participants, with the lowest awareness observed among Bangladeshis and Black Africans. Ethnic minorities were more likely than White British to report barriers to helpseeking. South Asians reported the highest emotional barriers, such as lack of confidence to talk to the doctor, and practical barriers, such as worry about many other things. The Irish were more likely than the White British to report practical barriers, such as being too busy to visit a doctor. White British participants were more likely than any other ethnic group to report that they would feel worried about wasting the doctor’s time. Overall, Black Africans had the lowest barriers. All differences were statistically significant (P<0.01 level), after controlling for confounders. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the need for culturally sensitive and targeted health campaigns, focused on improving recognition of cancer symptoms among ethnic minorities. Campaigns should tackle the specific barriers prevalent in each ethnic group

Experience of, awareness of and help-seeking for potential cancer symptoms in smokers and non-smokers: A cross-sectional study

Background Presenting to primary care with potential cancer symptoms is contingent on one’s ability to recognize potentially serious symptoms. We investigated differences between smokers and non-smokers in symptoms experienced, awareness and consulting of potential respiratory, head and neck cancer symptoms. Methods Smokers and non-smokers aged over 50 from Yorkshire general practice lists were sent a postal questionnaire asking about symptoms, consulting and awareness of cancer symptoms. Data were analysed using STATA14. Results Response rate after one reminder was 30.5% (1205/3954). Smoking status was associated with experience of cough (p<0.001), breathlessness (p = 0.002) and tiredness (p = 0.004) with smokers (25.8% of population) more likely than never-smokers (53.6% of population) to experience all three symptoms (cough OR = 2.56;95%CI[1.75–3.75], breathlessness OR = 2.39;95%CI[1.43–4.00], tiredness OR = 1.57;95%CI[1.12–2.19]). Smoking status was associated with awareness of breathlessness as a potential cancer symptom (p = 0.035) and consulting for cough (p = 0.011) with smokers less likely to consult than never-smokers (OR = 0.37;95% CI[0.17–0.80]). Conclusion Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to experience cough, breathlessness and tiredness, but are less likely to consult for cough than never-smokers. To increase cancer awareness and promote consulting among smokers, innovative interventions improving symptom recognition and empowering smokers to seek help are required

Considering equity in priority setting using transmission models : Recommendations and data needs

OBJECTIVES: Disease transmission models are used in impact assessment and economic evaluations of infectious disease prevention and treatment strategies, prominently so in the COVID-19 response. These models rarely consider dimensions of equity relating to the differential health burden between individuals and groups. We describe concepts and approaches which are useful when considering equity in the priority setting process, and outline the technical choices concerning model structure, outputs, and data requirements needed to use transmission models in analyses of health equity. METHODS: We reviewed the literature on equity concepts and approaches to their application in economic evaluation and undertook a technical consultation on how equity can be incorporated in priority setting for infectious disease control. The technical consultation brought together health economists with an interest in equity-informative economic evaluation, ethicists specialising in public health, mathematical modellers from various disease backgrounds, and representatives of global health funding and technical assistance organisations, to formulate key areas of consensus and recommendations. RESULTS: We provide a series of recommendations for applying the Reference Case for Economic Evaluation in Global Health to infectious disease interventions, comprising guidance on 1) the specification of equity concepts; 2) choice of evaluation framework; 3) model structure; and 4) data needs. We present available conceptual and analytical choices, for example how correlation between different equity- and disease-relevant strata should be considered dependent on available data, and outline how assumptions and data limitations can be reported transparently by noting key factors for consideration. CONCLUSIONS: Current developments in economic evaluations in global health provide a wide range of methodologies to incorporate equity into economic evaluations. Those employing infectious disease models need to use these frameworks more in priority setting to accurately represent health inequities. We provide guidance on the technical approaches to support this goal and ultimately, to achieve more equitable health policies

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

Background: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.</p

Cartilage-Specific Over-Expression of CCN Family Member 2/Connective Tissue Growth Factor (CCN2/CTGF) Stimulates Insulin-Like Growth Factor Expression and Bone Growth

Previously we showed that CCN family member 2/connective tissue growth factor (CCN2) promotes the proliferation, differentiation, and maturation of growth cartilage cells in vitro. To elucidate the specific role and molecular mechanism of CCN2 in cartilage development in vivo, in the present study we generated transgenic mice overexpressing CCN2 and analyzed them with respect to cartilage and bone development. Transgenic mice were generated expressing a ccn2/lacZ fusion gene in cartilage under the control of the 6 kb-Col2a1-enhancer/promoter. Changes in cartilage and bone development were analyzed histologically and immunohistologically and also by micro CT. Primary chondrocytes as well as limb bud mesenchymal cells were cultured and analyzed for changes in expression of cartilage-related genes, and non-transgenic chondrocytes were treated in culture with recombinant CCN2. Newborn transgenic mice showed extended length of their long bones, increased content of proteoglycans and collagen II accumulation. Micro-CT analysis of transgenic bones indicated increases in bone thickness and mineral density. Chondrocyte proliferation was enhanced in the transgenic cartilage. In in vitro short-term cultures of transgenic chondrocytes, the expression of col2a1, aggrecan and ccn2 genes was substantially enhanced; and in long-term cultures the expression levels of these genes were further enhanced. Also, in vitro chondrogenesis was strongly enhanced. IGF-I and IGF-II mRNA levels were elevated in transgenic chondrocytes, and treatment of non-transgenic chondrocytes with recombinant CCN2 stimulated the expression of these mRNA. The addition of CCN2 to non-transgenic chondrocytes induced the phosphorylation of IGFR, and ccn2-overexpressing chondrocytes showed enhanced phosphorylation of IGFR. Our data indicates that the observed effects of CCN2 may be mediated in part by CCN2-induced overexpression of IGF-I and IGF-II. These findings indicate that CCN2-overexpression in transgenic mice accelerated the endochondral ossification processes, resulting in increased length of their long bones. Our results also indicate the possible involvement of locally enhanced IGF-I or IGF-II in this extended bone growth

Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence

Abstract: Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure

The interstitium in cardiac repair: role of the immune-stromal cell interplay

Cardiac regeneration, that is, restoration of the original structure and function in a damaged heart, differs from tissue repair, in which collagen deposition and scar formation often lead to functional impairment. In both scenarios, the early-onset inflammatory response is essential to clear damaged cardiac cells and initiate organ repair, but the quality and extent of the immune response vary. Immune cells embedded in the damaged heart tissue sense and modulate inflammation through a dynamic interplay with stromal cells in the cardiac interstitium, which either leads to recapitulation of cardiac morphology by rebuilding functional scaffolds to support muscle regrowth in regenerative organisms or fails to resolve the inflammatory response and produces fibrotic scar tissue in adult mammals. Current investigation into the mechanistic basis of homeostasis and restoration of cardiac function has increasingly shifted focus away from stem cell-mediated cardiac repair towards a dynamic interplay of cells composing the less-studied interstitial compartment of the heart, offering unexpected insights into the immunoregulatory functions of cardiac interstitial components and the complex network of cell interactions that must be considered for clinical intervention in heart diseases

Inventory and projections of UK emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to land use, land use change and forestry. Annual Report June 2007

The overall aim of the project is to produce inventories and projections of UK greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks due to Land Use, Land USe Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The project report contains the methods and numbers for these inventories and progress reports on the science undertaken to support and develop the inventory