Countervailing Effects: What the FDA Would Have to Know to Evaluate Tobacco Regulations

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act [P.L. 111-31] gives the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the authority to regulate tobacco products, including placing restrictions on product composition, sale, and distribution. A complete accounting of the costs and benefits of any tobacco regulation includes harms from possible illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP): costs of enforcement, violence, incarceration, etc. Indeed, the law instructs the FDA to take into account the “countervailing effects” of regulation on public health, “such as the creation of a significant demand for contraband or other tobacco products that do not meet the requirements.” While the law’s narrow focus on public health may limit the scope of an inquiry by the FDA compared to a full benefit-cost analysis, aspects of ITTP such as violence and incarceration have substantial health impacts. Illicit markets in drugs such as cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine, not to mention the grand experiment of alcohol Prohibition in the early 20th century, illustrate the substantial risks of unwanted side effects of drug prohibition. But taxes, product limitations, access restrictions, and narrowly defined product bans constitute “lesser prohibitions,” and are subject to the same kind (if not degree) of risks. All tobacco policy-making should therefore consider ITTP. This article sets forth a research agenda for the FDA to consider in order to estimate the effects of contemplated tobacco-product regulation and ITTP. We argue that, to carry out fully its legislative mandate, the FDA would have to determine the current size and impact of ITTP, analyze how these may be expected to change under new regulations, and look for interdependencies among tobacco-product markets that may complicate single-product regulation. A more challenging element of the research agenda would be to develop a better theoretical groundwork for the prediction of the emergence, size, and side effects of illicit markets

Targeted Enforcement against Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products

Illicit trade in tobacco is a substantial and growing problem in the U.S., causing loss of tax revenue, damage to public health, and threats to public safety. Decisions about enforcement against ITTP involve tradeoffs among competing objectives. Good policy design can improve the terms of those tradeoffs but cannot eliminate them. We examine questions about the allocation of enforcement resources against ITTP, and its distribution across activities, individuals, and organizations: in particular, whether and how to differentially target ITTP that involves violence or support for terrorism. We consider the problem of developing effective strategies for enforcement, applying both lessons from experience with markets for illicit drugs and theoretical insights about enforcement targeting and dynamic concentration. We show that targeted enforcement and focused deterrence are more efficient than unfocused enforcement, and that – when other policy changes increase the potential rewards to illicit activity – enforcement resources applied earlier (before illicit markets have grown) will have greater impact than enforcement resources applied later (and therefore to larger markets). We discuss additional considerations, ranging from real-world complications left out of the simple models to examination of how insights from behavioral law and economics may modify conclusions based on a theory of deterrence designed for homo economicus

Unintended Consequences of Cigarette Prohibition, Regulation, and Taxation

Abstract Laws that prohibit, regulate, or tax cigarettes can generate illicit markets for tobacco products. Illicit markets both reduce the efficacy of policies intended to improve public health and create harms of their own. Enforcement can reduce evasion but creates additional harms, including incarceration and violence. There is strong evidence that more enforcement in illicit drug markets can spur violence. The presence of licit substitutes, such as electronic cigarettes, has the potential to greatly reduce the size of illicit markets. We present a model demonstrating why enforcement can increase violence, show that states with higher tobacco taxes have larger illicit markets, and apply the findings to discussion of public policy toward a potential ban on menthol cigarettes. The social calculus involved in determining public policy toward tobacco cigarettes should include the harms from both consumption and control. We conclude by highlighting areas where more research is needed for effective policymaking

Economic Growth and the Optimal Level of Entrepreneurship

Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), we examine data from developed and developing countries to estimate the ‘‘growth penalty” over 2003–11 when a country’s entrepreneurship deviates from its optimal level. We account for heterogeneity among countries in the optimal entrepreneurship rate, in the growth penalty from deviating from that optimum, and in other factors affecting growth. Notwithstanding that developing countries have more of their population running nascent small firms than in developed countries, a marginal increase in the entrepreneurship rate in developing countries has a positive effect on growth. On the contrary, in developed countries, there is no evident growth penalty. Supplemental results suggest that is because in developed countries as a whole, entrepreneurship is now close to its optimal level, whereas in developing countries the optimal rates of entrepreneurship are much higher. We also explore how the growth penalty varies with characteristics of the country, allowing us to test theories regarding the relationship between entrepreneurship and growth. We show that higher levels of R&D capability decrease the growth penalty of having too few entrepreneurs, suggesting that entrepreneurship and R&D are substitutes. Availability of venture capital also increases the growth penalty, but only in developing countries, where our data on venture capital best proxy its availability to start-ups

Reading the future from body movements – anticipation in handball

In speed-based sports that require fast reactions, the most accurate predictions are made once the players have seen the ball trajectory. However, waiting for the ball trajectory does not leave enough time for appropriate reactions. Expert athletes use kinematic information which they extract from the opponent’s movements to anticipate the ball trajectory. Temporal occlusion, where only a part of the full movement sequence is presented, has often been used to research anticipation in sports. Unlike many previous studies, we chose occlusion points in video-stimuli of penalty shooting in handball based on the domain-specific analysis of movement sequences. Instead of relying on randomly chosen occlusion points, each time point in our study revealed a specific chunk of information about the direction of the ball. The multivariate analysis showed that handball goalkeepers were not only more accurate and faster than novices overall when predicting where the ball will end up, but that experts and novices also made their decisions based on different kinds of movement sequences. These findings underline the importance of kinematic knowledge for anticipation, but they also demonstrate the significance of carefully chosen occlusion points

Internet of Things for Sustainability: Perspectives in Privacy, Cybersecurity, and Future Trends

In the sustainability IoT, the cybersecurity risks to things, sensors, and monitoring systems are distinct from the conventional networking systems in many aspects. The interaction of sustainability IoT with the physical world phenomena (e.g., weather, climate, water, and oceans) is mostly not found in the modern information technology systems. Accordingly, actuation, the ability of these devices to make changes in real world based on sensing and monitoring, requires special consideration in terms of privacy and security. Moreover, the energy efficiency, safety, power, performance requirements of these device distinguish them from conventional computers systems. In this chapter, the cybersecurity approaches towards sustainability IoT are discussed in detail. The sustainability IoT risk categorization, risk mitigation goals, and implementation aspects are analyzed. The openness paradox and data dichotomy between privacy and sharing is analyzed. Accordingly, the IoT technology and security standard developments activities are highlighted. The perspectives on opportunities and challenges in IoT for sustainability are given. Finally, the chapter concludes with a discussion of sustainability IoT cybersecurity case studies

Digital supply chain management in the videogames industry: a systematic literature review

As industries mature, they rely more heavily on supply chain management (SCM) to ensure effective operations leading to greater levels of organisational performance. SCM has been widely covered in many industrial areas and, in line with other burgeoning sectors such as Tourism, an industry focus provides the opportunity to look in-depth at the context-based factors that affect SCM. Developments in digital distribution and rapid technological innovations have resulted in an increased focus on Digital Supply Chains (DSCs), which bring about significant changes to how consumers, customers, suppliers, and manufacturers interact, affecting supply chain design and processes. Through a systematic review of the Videogames Industry Supply Chain Management literature, which serves as a pertinent contextual example of a DSC, we look at how supply chains are affected by structural, market and technological change, such as increased platformisation, disintermediation and the proliferation of digital distribution. We distil these findings into a new research agenda, which identifies themes in line with extant DSC research, provides a series of relevant practice recommendations and identifies opportunities for future research