Sensitivity of estuaries to sea level rise: Vulnerability indices

This study addresses the question of how tidally-dominated estuaries will adapt to rises in mean sea level and changes in river flows associated with global climate change. The aim was to develop generic ‘Vulnerability Indices’ to provide immediate indications of relative resilience or sensitivity. Four indices indicate the likely impacts on: (1) Mass flow, (2) Energetics, (3) Vertical mixing and (4) Salinity intrusion. Application of these indices to 96 estuaries in England and Wales suggests that a mean sea-level rise of 1 m will: • have little overall effect on mass flows but significant impacts on energy dissipation levels, especially in depths less than about 10 m • have a small impact on levels of vertical mixing in deeper estuaries, but a significant impact in shallow (<10 m), micro-tidal estuaries • increase the salinity intrusion length by at least 7% in the deepest estuaries and by in excess of 25% in estuaries shallower than 10 m. In seaward regions of strongly tidal estuaries, impacts from changes in river flow, Q, have little effect on either mass flow or energetics. However, a change of 25% (either increase or decrease) will have significant effects on both vertical mixing and salinity intrusion. The impacts on vertical mixing will be greatest in estuaries closer to micro-tidal conditions. Saline intrusion lengths will increase in proportion to the related decrease in river flow (and vice versa). These impacts must be considered alongside likely accompanying evolution in morphologies indicated by Prandle (2006)

Effects of tidal-forcing variations on tidal properties along a narrow convergent estuary

A 1D analytical framework is implemented in a narrow convergent estuary that is 78 km in length (the Guadiana, Southern Iberia) to evaluate the tidal dynamics along the channel, including the effects of neap-spring amplitude variations at the mouth. The close match between the observations (damping from the mouth to ∼ 30 km, shoaling upstream) and outputs from semi-closed channel solutions indicates that the M2 tide is reflected at the estuary head. The model is used to determine the contribution of reflection to the dynamics of the propagating wave. This contribution is mainly confined to the upper one third of the estuary. The relatively constant mean wave height along the channel (< 10% variations) partly results from reflection effects that also modify significantly the wave celerity and the phase difference between tidal velocity and elevation (contradicting the definition of an “ideal” estuary). Furthermore, from the mouth to ∼ 50 km, the variable friction experienced by the incident wave at neap and spring tides produces wave shoaling and damping, respectively. As a result, the wave celerity is largest at neap tide along this lower reach, although the mean water level is highest in spring. Overall, the presented analytical framework is useful for describing the main tidal properties along estuaries considering various forcings (amplitude, period) at the estuary mouth and the proposed method could be applicable to other estuaries with small tidal amplitude to depth ratio and negligible river discharge.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Tidal propagation in strongly convergent channels

Simple first‐ and second‐order analytic solutions, which diverge markedly from classical views of cooscillating tides, are derived for tidal propagation in strongly convergent channels. Theoretical predictions compare well with observations from typical examples of shallow, “funnel‐shaped” tidal estuaries. A scaling of the governing equations appropriate to these channels indicates that at first order, gradients in cross‐sectional area dominate velocity gradients in the continuity equation and the friction term dominates acceleration in the momentum equation. Finite amplitude effects, velocity gradients due to wave propagation, and local acceleration enter the equations at second order. Applying this scaling, the first‐order governing equation becomes a first‐order wave equation, which is inconsistent with the presence of a reflected wave. The solution is of constant amplitude and has a phase speed near the frictionless wave speed, like a classical progressive wave, yet velocity leads elevation by 90°, like a classical standing wave. The second‐order solution at the dominant frequency is also a unidirectional wave; however, its amplitude is exponentially modulated. If inertia is finite and convergence is strong, amplitude increases along channel, whereas if inertia is weak and convergence is limited, amplitude decays. Compact solutions for second‐order tidal harmonics quantify the partially canceling effects of (1) time variations in channel depth, which slow the propagation of low water, and (2) time variations in channel width, which slow the propagation of high water. Finally, it is suggested that phase speed, along‐channel amplitude growth, and tidal harmonics in strongly convergent channels are all linked by morphodynamic feedback

A comprehensive study of the tides around the Welsh coastal waters

A computational model has been used to explore characteristics of the barotropic tide around the Welsh coast in detail for the first time. Proper understanding of tidal characteristics is vital for the sustainable use of marine resources; particularly for industries such as marine energy extraction, aggregate mining, aquaculture, as well as regulators and agencies with responsibilities for the resource management and public safety. In shallow water areas, the influence of bathymetry and energy dissipation leads to the generation of higher harmonics that cause complex tidal phenomena. The Celtic and Irish seas, which enclose the Welsh coast (UK), are heavily industrialised shallow water seas with macro-to mega-tidal semi-diurnal tides. It is shown that tidal distortion is significant in the Bristol Channel (S. Wales) and in the large shallow estuaries of the N. Wales coast; for much of the west coast this is only significant in localised areas around headlands and islands. Tidal dominance switches from flood dominant in the south and north to ebb dominant on the west coast. Highly complex patterns of vorticity in the tidal residual flow are noted. All these factors mean that careful siting of industry and coastal management interventions is required to avoid disruption of the natural system

Influence of storm surge on tidal range energy

The regular and predictable nature of the tide makes the generation of electricity with a tidal lagoon or barrage an attractive form of renewable energy, yet storm surges affect the total water-level. Here, we present the first assessment of the potential impact of storm surges on tidal-range power. Water-level data (2000–2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where tidal-range energy is suitable for development (e.g. Bristol Channel), was used to predict power. Storm surge affected annual resource estimates −5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability, which is lower than other sources of uncertainty (e.g. lagoon design); therefore, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient. However, instantaneous power output was often significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%–8%, Scatter Index: 15%–41%) and so a storm surge prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range generation. The storm surge influence to tidal-range power varied with the electricity generation strategy considered (flooding tide only, ebb-only or dual; both flood and ebb), but with some spatial and temporal variability. The flood-only strategy was most affected by storm surge, mostly likely because tide-surge interaction increases the chance of higher water-levels on the flooding tide

Future observational and modelling needs identified on the basis of the existing shelf data

NOWESP has compiled a vast quantity of existing data from the North-West European Shelf. Such a focused task is without precedence. It is now highly recommended that one, or a few national and international data centres or agencies should be chosen and properly supported by the EU, where all available observational data, including the NOWESP data, are collected, stored, regularly updated by the providers of the data, and made available to the researchers. International agreement must be reached on the quality control procedures and quality standards for data to be stored in these data bases. Proper arrangements should be made to preserve the economic value of the data for their "owners" without compromising use of the data by researchers or duplicating data collecting efforts. The continental shelf data needed are concentration fields of temperature, salinity, nutrients, suspended matter and chlorophyll, which can be called "climatological" fields. For this purpose at least one monthly survey on the whole European shelf is needed at least during five years, with a proper spatial resolution e.g. 1 degree by 1 degree, and at least in those areas where climatological data are now totally lacking. From the modelling point of view an alternative would be the availability of data from sufficiently representative fixed stations on the shelf, with weekly sampling for several years