Outcome Evaluation and Indicative Impact Assessment of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) work on Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), through its Flagship on Low-Emissions Development—otherwise known as Flagship 3 (FP3)— seeks to address the increasing challenge that global warming is placing on agricultural practices, policies and measures and the overall challenge of declining food security. CCAFS was established in 2010 as a cross-cutting program of the 15 CGIAR Research Centers and strategic partnerships. For the past decade, CCAFS has been working intensively on, among other things, low-emissions development (LED) and mitigation. Before the closure of its second phase in December 2021, the program has commissioned an evaluation of progress towards impact, particularly around the work packages on measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) with a rough investment of USD 2.4 mil. over ten years. The evaluation methods included a stakeholder survey and an adaptation of Contribution Analysis (Mayne 2013) and Outcome Harvesting (Wilson-Grau, Britt 2013) to develop a narrative of CCAFS’ contributions to MRV impacts. We complemented this with an analysis to calculate estimated benefits and impact benefits in GHGE reductions, people’s wellbeing and hectares affected. The survey helped to identify the top three clusters of MRV outputs and provide evidence of impact, followed by interviews to understand the impacts in more depth. CCAFS’ influence, at a qualitative minimum, on primary target countries was confirmed by interviewees for China, Colombia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Vietnam. While MRV improvements clearly contribute to improved quantification of emissions for mitigation planning and implementation, there is no reliable way to quantify and link these to mitigation outcomes, other than to indicate the significance of the agricultural emissions from each country, which we have done here. Our i findings indicating early impact can serve as pointers and follow-up quantitative evaluative analytical work. In our evaluation results, we include analysis and interpretation of FAOSTAT data and some quantifications towards the System Level Outcome (SLO) target indicators. The delivery model, hinging on strategic partnerships involving government champions, research expertise, and South-South countries knowledge exchange, was viewed as successful in the selected countries where we received confirmation from partners and government affiliated key informants. Seven harvested outcomes are presented in Annex VII as individual cases per country and specific MRV work. The overview of results and findings from the key informant interviews illustrate the demand-driven delivery of innovative products and processes required for the MRV work evolution to yield the desired impacts. The results strongly support evidence of how CCAFS work over the past ten years on MRV has successfully introduced the right mechanisms and incentives to support the achievement of FP3 goals and higher-level global climate-related targets. The work in strong partnerships has developed a series of tools, approaches, networks for exchange and sharing across countries, and capacity in key positions, champions in governments, research, and South-South collaborations to support and enable the continuous improvement of MRV criteria that are critical to achieving the CCAFS Program and CGIAR system-level set targets, and ultimately the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and commitments of the Paris Agreement. These outcomes are solid starting points upon which to follow-up in a few years to substantiate the changes and obtain further refined quantified impacts as they gradually mature and as more next users make use of CCAFS MRV innovation products and materials

What does CGIAR do to address climate change? Perspectives from a decade of science on climate change adaptation and mitigation

CGIAR consists of a network of international publicly funded agricultural research for development institutes. Over five decades it has worked to increase food abundance, reduce hunger and poverty rates, and lower the geographical footprint of agriculture in lower- and middle-income countries. CGIAR's first formalised research program on climate change was set up in 2009. Here we report on an analysis of 300 outcomes generated over the lifetime of this program, which ran until 2021. Outcomes were characterised in relation to the climate objective, geography, thematic scope, and contribution to global goals. More than half of the outcomes analysed were related to policies for agriculture development under climate change. Twenty-six percent of outcomes related to climate, information and financial services, and 22 percent were related to organisational programming. Most outcomes analysed were at an early stage of maturity, focusing on design and planning stages of policies, strategies, and investments. Fewer than five percent of outcomes had evidence of impact at scale. Outcomes were facilitated by a wide network of partners and contributed to more than ten Sustainable Development Goals. The results of the analysis show the value of outcome-oriented science in being able to harness diversity, balance strategy with opportunism, plan flexibly, work across multiple vulnerability contexts, and allocate resources towards outcomes. These elements have played a significant role in fostering change across contexts, in adjusting research to emerging needs and context changes, in creating conditions for spillovers, and in ensuring global relevance. To transform the food system, the research for development agenda needs to be bolder. It will require more outcomes of various types, achieved through diverse partnerships, spanning a diversity of geographies, vulnerable contexts, and priorities. Significant and intentional investments in strengthening monitoring, evaluation, reporting and learning capacity will be required to further realize the potential for outcome-oriented research

A decade of science for climate change adaptation and mitigation

This working paper synthesizes findings and reflections from an analysis of 300 CCAFS outcomes reported by project and program leaders between 2011 and 2020. The analysis, organized in the form of an outcome harvest, was aimed to distil typologies of outcomes achieved across geographies and groups of beneficiaries; the contributions of outcomes to program and institutional targets and sustainable development goals (SDGs) and targets; as well as key impact pathways derived from the activities, outputs and outcomes reported by CCAFS teams in relation to interventions targeting policy/investment and services/farm. The study also reveals examples of outcomes that progressed from one maturity level to the next, that expanded the scope of work, scaled to new geographies, or marked an increase in the number of innovations developed over the years, indicating a diversity of forms in which CCAFS outcome-oriented work has evolved towards increased impact

2022 AICCRA Partnership Survey Results Report

Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) is a USD 60 million three-year project, funded by the World Bank and being led by CIAT, with participating partners from six countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, Ghana, Mali and Senegal. This report provides an overview of the Satisfaction Survey that was disseminated to partners to gather their feedback on three of the intermediate Project Indicators (IPI), as laid out in the Project Implementation Arrangements. These indicators capture progress on (1 - IPI 1.3) the satisfaction with the usefulness, accessibility and relevance, particularly for gender and youth responsiveness, (2 - IPI 2.4) effectiveness of partnerships and (3 - IPI 3.3) the use or adaptation of AICCRA-funded climate-relevant knowledge products, decision-making tools and services. The survey was open from 8 December 2022 to 11 January 2023 Cluster leads provided the products/services to survey for their cluster, and they sent the survey to their partners totaling 451 recipients. There were 312 responses from 309 unique individuals, which was a 69% response rate. Three individuals reported on two separate Clusters. All second-year targets were achieved. Satisfaction with the products and services of the project (IPI 1.3) attained an average of 82%, 2% higher than the 2021 average of 80% and 5% higher than the target of 75%. Effectiveness of partnerships (IPI 2.4) surpassed the target of 75% and achieved an average score of 85% for all criteria including Vision, Leadership, Accountability, Communications & Collaboration and Impact, which matches the 2021 result. Through an elaborative capacity development program, IPI 3.3 - which looked precisely at how many respondents have used the products - scored an average of 73% confirmed use (233 identified use cases); well above the 12.5% target for year two. Continuous feedback on the survey design and results are also being compiled and will help improve the process for next year

AICCRA leveraging on networks to communicate climate information and climate smart agriculture to smallholder farmers in Zambia

AICCRA Zambia supports networks and community responses through programs on climate innovation and agribusiness, leveraging on media and communication channels. Interventions are designed to stimulate networks of actors at multiple levels (macro, meso, micro) that catalyse dissemination of climate information and climate smart products and services to smallholder farmers. At project level, communication and outreach strategies that support networks and linkages within and across the networks can also contribute to achieving impact. Network strengthening and media communications can provide an important bridge for research, development, climate and agri-business to achieve their targets of enhancing uptake of climate information and climate smart agriculture. Assessment tools are being developed to identify what networks, partnerships and strategic stakeholders the media can leverage on and start working with. Assessing value creation stories with key stakeholders will show how communication and outreach activities of the AICCRA project have resulted in stimulating response by intermediaries and end-users and improved program performance and impact on smallholder farmers. Providing feedback on how good the media interventions were, how they contributed to local impact pathways, and what new opportunities for partnerships were discovered, supports monitoring and evidencing achievements in accordance with the project results framework

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. METHODS In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2-F3, or F1 with at least one accompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpoints for the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2-F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. FINDINGS Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1-F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2-F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1-F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). INTERPRETATION Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes. FUNDING Intercept Pharmaceuticals

A Comprehensive Framework for Building Multilingual Domain Ontologies: Creating a Prototype Biosecurity Ontology

This paper presents our ongoing work in establishing a multilingual domain ontology for a biosecurity portal. As a prototypical approach, this project is embedded into the bigger context of the Agricultural Ontology Service (AOS) project of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN. The AOS will act as a reference tool for ontology creation assistance and herewith enable the transfer of the agricultural domain towards the Semantic Web. The paper focuses on introducing a comprehensive, reusable framework for the process of semi-automatically supported ontology evolvement, which aims to be used in follow-up projects and can eventually be applied to any other domain. Within the multinational context of the FAO, multilingual aspects play a crucial role and therefore an extendable layered ontology modelling approach will be described within the framework. The paper will present the project milestones achieved so far: the creation of a core ontology, the semiautomatic extension of this ontology using a heuristic toolset, and the representation of the resulting ontology in a multilingual web portal. The reader will be provided with a practical example for the creation of a specific domain ontology, which can be applied to any possible domain. Future projects, including automatic text classification, and ontology facilitated search opportunities, will be addressed at the end of the paper

Yoga and Mindfulness for Adolescents

A six-week yoga and mindfulness curriculum prepared for adolescents using a trauma-informed approach and an adapted version of the evidence-based Learning to Breathe mindfulness curriculum

AICCRA Partnership Survey Results Report

Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) is a USD 60 million three-year project, funded by the World Bank and being led by CIAT, with participating partners from six countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Zambia, Ghana, Mali and Senegal. This report provides an overview of the Satisfaction Survey that was disseminated to partners to gather their feedback on three of the intermediate Project Indicators (IPI), as laid out in the Project Implementation Arrangements. These indicators capture progress on (1 - IPI 1.3) the satisfaction with the usefulness, accessibility and relevance, particularly for gender and youth responsiveness, (2 - IPI 2.4) effectiveness of partnerships and (3 - IPI 3.3) the use or adaptation of AICCRA-funded climate-relevant knowledge products, decision-making tools and services. The survey was open from 29 January through 9 February 2022. Cluster leads provided the products/services to survey for their cluster, and they sent the survey to their partners. There were 157 responses from 150 unique individuals. Two individuals reported on two separate Clusters. Five individuals responded twice. All first year targets were achieved. Satisfaction with the products and services of the project (IPI 1.3) attained an average of 80%; 5% higher than the target of 75%. Effectiveness of partnerships (IPI 2.4) surpassed the target of 75% and achieved an average score of 85% for all criteria including Vision, Leadership, Accountability, Communications & Collaboration and Impact. Through an elaborative capacity development program, IPI 3.3 - which looked precisely at how many respondents have used the products - scored an average of 61% confirmed use; well above the 2.5% target for year one. Feedback on the survey design and results are also being compiled and will help improve the process for next year. This includes the ability to better survey the partners on the products and services that they have been trained on, providing the survey in French, and trying to anticipate the satisfaction survey to avoid simultaneous timing with the AICCRA Annual Report