The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic

This research aimed to identify an approach for adaptation of agriculture to increased climate variability and projected changes, taking into account regional specificity of climate change. Changes in the timing of growing season (GS) parameters for both observation and models data were computed using daily mean temperatures for three thresholds that correspond to the physiological requirements of the vegetable types. This research included a new assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the GS of vegetables grown in the Elbe River lowland, one of the largest farmed vegetable regions in Central Europe. To accomplish this, a comprehensive analysis was conducted of the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the beginning of the growing season (BGS), the date of the end of the growing season (EGS), and the length of the growing season (GSL) for the period 1961–2011. In addition, an assessment was made of the potential changes in the dates of the BGS, EGS, and GSL for the Elbe River lowland, simulated using the regional climate models. Prospective areas for growing thermophilic vegetables in the study region were also determined

Variability and Change in Water Cycle at the Catchment Level

This study proposes a simple methodology for assessing future-projected evolution of water cycle components (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and potential runoff) based on the two-level Palmer model of the soil and their impact on drought conditions at basin level. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used as drought metric. The catchments of rivers Arges, Mures, Prut, Siret and Somes (mid- and lower Danube basin) have been chosen as case studies. The present climate data consist of Romanian gridded dataset, monthly precipitation and values of streamflow from Romania and Republic of Moldova and potential evapotranspiration-related data from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia). We used as future projections five numerical experiments with regional models obtained through the EURO-CORDEX initiative, under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. The correlations between observed streamflow at the river basin outlets and PDSI-related components of the water cycle show that PDSI represents reasonably well processes taking place in the selected catchments. Depending on the specific scenario and catchment, droughts that in the Palmer classification were deemed as incipient, mild or severe under present climate will become a normal summer feature toward the end of this century, especially over catchments situated in the lower Danube basin

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies

Long-term changes in drought indices in eastern and central Europe

This study analyses long-term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3 months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves-Samani (SPEIH) and Penman-Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus and northern Poland. In the rest of study domain, a weak and mostly insignificant decrease prevailed in winter. Summer season (June–August) is characterized by changes in the opposite sign. An increase was observed in the north, while a clear decrease in SPEI, reflecting a drying trend, was typical for the southern regions: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and southern Poland. A general drying tendency revealed also in April, which was statistically significant over a wide area in the Czech Republic and Poland. Increasing trends in SPI and SPEI for September and October were detected in Romania, Moldova and Hungary. The use of SPEI instead of SPI generally enhances drying trends.This study was initiated and financed by the EU JPI WATER project IMDROFLOOD. In addition, it is partly supported by the Ministry of Education and Research of Estonia (grant PRG-352), by the projects “SustES—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions” (ref. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), MZe QK1910269 “Adaptation potential of common wheat in response to drought and extreme temperatures,” and by DAMOCLES COST ACA17109 “Understanding and modelling compound climate and weather events” (2018–2022).Peer reviewe

Modeling the impacts of combined climatic events on the growth, development and yield parameters of field thermophilic vegetables and oilseed rape in the decision support system in the field of agrotechnology transfer - DSSAT

Modeling the impacts of combined climate events on the growth, development and yield parameters of field thermophilic vegetables and oilseed rape in a decision support system in the field of agrotechnology transfer - DSSAT. This book will introduce you to the latest information technologies and their applications in agriculture, including decision support systems, crop simulation models and other computer tools. It should also help you to solve problems at the regional level on issues related to crop production and other issues related to agriculture, natural resource management and cropping systems and food security, as well as issues related to climate change and variability. This professional book offers users the appropriate supplementary material to enable them to continuously meet the demands of a changing climate. The book is divided into two parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part summarizes basic information about simulations of crop production, water and nutrient management, climate risks and environmental sustainability. In the practical part, the procedures for working in the DSSAT program (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) are presented

Observed and simulated growth, development and yield of field-grown tomato in the Elbe lowland, the Czech Republic

This study deals with observed and simulated growth, development and yield of the fresh-market Thomas F1 tomato bush cultivar (Solanum lycopersicum L.) grown under open field conditions at farm scale in the Elbe lowland. The CROPGRO-Tomato model used in this study is part of the DSSAT V4.5 software. The model has been calibrated with growth analyses data from field experiments, agronomic evidence (GC UPRAVY software) and the most currently available data from the literature sources of cardinal temperatures for tomato phenology, fruit growth and photosynthesis (Tb - base temperature; Topt1 - the lowest temperature at which maximum rate is attained; Topt2 - the upper temperature at which maximum rate is sustained; Tmax - maximum temperature). The sampling plants were collected a once 14 days for analysis of basic physiological parameters: LAI (Leaf area index), LAR (Leaf Area Ratio), C (Crop Growth Rate), RGRw (Relative Growth Rate) and NAR (Net Assimilation Rate). Phenology observation was done weakly. Meteorological, soil and agro-technical parameters across the fields were monitored. The treatments were well-irrigated and well-fertilised, and therefore, no water or N stress was present.Parameters affecting leaf growth, dry biomass productions, and dry biomass of leaves, stem and generative organs from planting to harvest were calibrated against the observed data. Phenological development and growth processes such as leaf expansion and fruit growth depend on cardinal temperatures. Leaf area expansion depends on the new leaf mas produced and specific leaf area, which is influenced by light, temperature, root N uptake, and plant water status. Starting date for the simulation corresponds with transplanting date of the crop in the field, which was set at day 141. The simulation period ended at day 273, a reasonable estimate for the date when plants are stopped in practice. Initial input dry biomass at Mochov farm (Suchdol) was set to 2.25 (2.88), 1.71 (2.5) and 0.01 (0.78) grams for leaves, stem and generative organs, respectively

Review of Snow Data Assimilation Methods for Hydrological, Land Surface, Meteorological and Climate Models: Results from a COST HarmoSnow Survey

The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404 “HarmoSnow„, entitled, “A European network for a harmonized monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction„ (2014-2018) aims to coordinate efforts in Europe to harmonize approaches to validation, and methodologies of snow measurement practices, instrumentation, algorithms and data assimilation (DA) techniques. One of the key objectives of the action was “Advance the application of snow DA in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models and show its benefit for weather and hydrological forecasting as well as other applications.„ This paper reviews approaches used for assimilation of snow measurements such as remotely sensed and in situ observations into hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models based on a COST HarmoSnow survey exploring the common practices on the use of snow observation data in different modeling environments. The aim is to assess the current situation and understand the diversity of usage of snow observations in DA, forcing, monitoring, validation, or verification within NWP, hydrology, snow and climate models. Based on the responses from the community to the questionnaire and on literature review the status and requirements for the future evolution of conventional snow observations from national networks and satellite products, for data assimilation and model validation are derived and suggestions are formulated towards standardized and improved usage of snow observation data in snow DA. Results of the conducted survey showed that there is a fit between the snow macro-physical variables required for snow DA and those provided by the measurement networks, instruments, and techniques. Data availability and resources to integrate the data in the model environment are identified as the current barriers and limitations for the use of new or upcoming snow data sources. Broadening resources to integrate enhanced snow data would promote the future plans to make use of them in all model environments

Priority for climate adaptation measures in European crop production systems

To date, assessing the adaptive measures to climate change effects on cropping systems have generally been based on data from field trials and crop models. This strategy can only explore a restricted number of options with a limited spatial extent. Therefore, we designed a questionnaire that incorporated both qualitative and quantitative aspects of climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. The questionnaire was distributed to experts from 15 European countries to map both the observed and planned climate adaptive measures in general and for five major crops (wheat, oilseed rape, maize, potato, and grapevine) in six environmental zones (EnZs) across Europe. In northern Europe, changed timing of field operations and introduction of new crops and cultivars were the already observed as the main adaptations to a longer growing season and reduced low-temperature stress under climate change. Farmers in central and southern Europe were mainly changing water and soil management as well as adopting drought-tolerant cultivars to cope with increasing evapotranspiration and higher variability and lower predictability of rainfall. Crop protection, crop insurance, and early warning/forecast systems were considered effective ways to reduce the economic losses from increased climate-related risks and extremes. The risks and associated adaptation measures vary for different crops in different EnZs. Across Europe, changes in field operation practices, fertilisation regime, crop protection, and cultivar selection are expected to be the most prominent adaptive measures under future projected climate change. In southern and central Europe, improved irrigation systems, changing cropping systems, and revised environmental regulations and subsidy schemes are being introduced as part of adaptation planning due to the projected warmer and drier climate. In northern Europe, there are also considerations of changing landscape and environmental regulations to cope with increasing rainfall variability and changing cropping practices due to longer growing seasons. The thorough understanding of the observed and foreseen adaptations in the different zones will be helpful for supporting decision making at both farm and policy levels across Europe

Membres du comité d'organisation scientifique. XVII. Congress of the European Society for Agronomy

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