Habitat selection by 2 species of nectarivore: habitat quality isolines

I present a model predicting the distribution and abundance of two species of competing nectarivore exploiting nectar in two types of flower. The model uses a submodel of resource renewal and depletion, and the principle that individuals attempt to maximize individual fitness, to construct habitat isolines. The habitat isoline for a population of nectarivores is a line in an abundance phase-plane along which all individuals of the population, regardless of the habitat they are currently exploiting, have equal expected fitness. At equilibrium the habitat isoline determines the distribution of a population between two habitats given a fixed abundance of competitors. The habitat isolines for populations of two species exploiting two habitats can be used to predict the equilibrium distribution of both species. I illustrate the model using data about bumble bees foraging for nectar in flowers (Inouye 1978)

Interacting populations in heterogeneous environments

To optimally manage a metapopulation, managers and conservation biologists can favor a type of habitat spatial distribution (e.g. aggregated or random). However, the spatial distribution that provides the highest habitat occupancy remains ambiguous and numerous contradictory results exist. Habitat occupancy depends on the balance between local extinction and colonization. Thus, the issue becomes even more puzzling when various forms of relationships - positive or negative co-variation - between local extinction and colonization rate within habitat types exist. Using an analytical model we demonstrate first that the habitat occupancy of a metapopulation is significantly affected by the presence of habitat types that display different extinction-colonization dynamics, considering: (i) variation in extinction or colonization rate and (ii) positive and negative co-variation between the two processes within habitat types. We consequently examine, with a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model, how different degrees of habitat aggregation affect occupancy predictions under similar scenarios. An aggregated distribution of habitat types provides the highest habitat occupancy when local extinction risk is spatially heterogeneous and high in some places, while a random distribution of habitat provides the highest habitat occupancy when colonization rates are high. Because spatial variability in local extinction rates always favors aggregation of habitats, we only need to know about spatial variability in colonization rates to determine whether aggregating habitat types increases, or not, metapopulation occupancy. From a comparison of the results obtained with the analytical and with the spatial-explicit stochastic simulation model we determine the conditions under which a simple metapopulation model closely matches the results of a more complex spatial simulation model with explicit heterogeneity

Ranking Conservation And Timber Management Options For Leadbeater's Possum In Southeastern Australia Using Population Viability Analysis

The conservation of the endangered Leadbeater's Possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri, is one of the most contentious forestry issues in Australia. The challenge is to identify strategies to conserve the species in the significant portion of its range in the central highlands of Victoria (southeastern Australia) where timber harvesting occurs. We used ALEX, a simulation program for population viability analysis, to explore the effectiveness of potential forest management strategies to enhance the persistence of G. leadbeateri in areas of wood production. Our study focused on the relationship between the risk of metapopulation extinction and (1) the number and spatial arrangement of 50-ha logging areas that could be reserved from timber harvesting and (2) the impacts of post-fire salvage logging in reserved areas. We modeled complex patch structures within two forest blocks (Murrindindi and Steavenson) that were based on maps of both existing patches of suitable habitat for G. leadbeateri and the location of potential logging areas. We recorded high values for the probability of extinction of metapopulations of G. leadbeateri when existing strategies for the conservation of the species within the Murrindindi and Steavenson Forest Blocks were modeled. Exclusion of salvage logging operations from burned, old-growth forests significantly improved the species' prospects of survival in both the short and long term. Withdrawal of timber harvesting from some proposed logging coupes made a significant, positive long-term contribution to metapopulation persistence. But there will be a delay of at least 150 years until areas set aside now make a significant contribution to metapopulation persistence. This is the time required for existing stands of regrowth to develop old-growth characteristics that are an essential habitat component for G. leadbeateri. We examined the effectiveness of different designs for setting aside a total reserved area of 300 ha. These ranged from a single 300-ha reserve to 12, 25-ha reserves. Populations in smaller reserves were vulnerable to extinction from demographic stochasticity and environmental variability. Conversely, a small number of larger reserves were susceptible to destruction in a single, catastrophic wildfire, highlighting the need for several dispersed reserves. Analyses of the sensitivity of various management options to variations in fire frequency and extent, movement capability, and a wide range of other factors indicated that the conservation strategy that gave the best relative outcome for G. leadbeateri was both to set aside several 50 to 100-ha reserves in every forest block and to preclude post-fire salvage logging operations from these areas if they burned in a wildfire

A Stochastic Metapopulation Model with Variability in Patch Size and Position

Analytically tractable metapopulation models usually assume that every patch is identical, which limits their application to real metapopulations. We describe a new single species model of metapopulation dynamics that allows variation in patch size and position. The state of the metapopulation is defined by the presence or absence of the species in each patch. For a system of n patches, this gives 2^n possible states. We show how to construct and analyse a matrix describing transitions between all possible states by first constructing separate extinction and colonisation matrices. We illustrate the model's application to metapopulations by considering an example of malleefowl, Leipoa ocellata, in southern Australia, and calculate extinction probabilities and quasi-stationary distributions. We investigate the relative importance of modelling the particular arrangement of patches and the variation in patch sizes for this metapopulation and we use the model to examine the effects of further habitat loss on extinction probabilities

Marine protected areas for spatially structured exploited stocks

Copyright © 2000 Inter-ResearchMany harvested marine and terrestrial populations have segments of their range protected in areas free from exploitation. Reasons for areas being protected from harvesting include conservation, tourism, research, protection of breeding grounds, stock recovery, harvest regulation, or habitat that is uneconomical to exploit. In this paper we consider the problem of optimally exploiting a single species local population that is connected by dispersing larvae to an unharvested local population. We define a spatially-explicit population dynamics model and apply dynamic optimization techniques to determine policies for harvesting the exploited patch. We then consider how reservation affects yield and spawning stock abundance when compared to policies that have not recognised the spatial structure of the metapopulation. Comparisons of harvest strategies between an exploited metapopulation with and without a harvest refuge are also made. Results show that in a 2 local population metapopulation with unidirectional larval transfer, the optimal exploitation of the harvested population should be conducted as if it were independent of the reserved population. Numerical examples suggest that relative source populations should be exploited if the objective is to maximise spawning stock abundance within a harvested metapopulation that includes a protected local population. However, this strategy can markedly reduce yield over a sink harvested reserve system and may require strict regulation for conservation goals to be realised. If exchange rates are high, results indicate that spawning stock abundance can be less in a reserve system than in a fully exploited metapopulation. In order to maximise economic gain in the reserve system, results indicate that relative sink populations should be harvested. Depending on transfer levels, loss in harvest through reservation can be minimal, and is likely to be compensated by the potential environmental and economic benefits of the reserve.G. N. Tuck and H. P. Possingha

Trend detection in source-sink systems: when should sink habitats be monitored?

We determine the power of population monitoring in source or sink habitat to detect declining reproductive success in source habitat using a stochastic population model. The relative power to detect a trend in the source by monitoring either the source or the sink varies with life history parameters, environmental stochasticity, and observation uncertainty. The power to detect a decline monitoring either source or sink habitat is maximized when the reproductive surplus in the source is low. The power to detect a decline by monitoring the sink increases with increasing reproductive deficit in the sink. If environmental stochasticity in the source increases, the power in the sink goes down due to a lower signal-to-noise ratio. However, the power in the sink increases if environmental stochasticity is increased further, because increasing stochasticity reduces the geometric mean growth rate in the source. Intriguingly, it is often most efficient to monitor the sink even though the actual reproductive decline occurs in the source. If reproductive success is declining in both habitats, censusing the sink will always have higher power. However, the probability of Type 1 error is always higher in the sink. Our results clearly have implications for optimal population monitoring in source-sink landscapes

Différents récits sur le départ des juifs du Maroc dans les années 1960-1970

Conservation outcomes are principally achieved through the protection of intact habitat or the restoration of degraded habitat. Restoration is generally considered a lower priority action than protection because protection is thought to provide superior outcomes, at lower costs, without the time delay required for restoration. Yet while it is broadly accepted that protected intact habitat safeguards more biodiversity and generates greater ecosystem services per unit area than restored habitat, conservation lacks a theory that can coherently compare the relative outcomes of the two actions. We use a dynamic landscape model to integrate these two actions into a unified conservation theory of protection and restoration. Using nonlinear benefit functions, we show that both actions are crucial components of a conservation strategy that seeks to optimise either biodiversity conservation or ecosystem services provision. In contrast to conservation orthodoxy, in some circumstances, restoration should be strongly preferred to protection. The relative priority of protection and restoration depends on their costs and also on the different time lags that are inherent to both protection and restoration. We derive a simple and easy-to-interpret heuristic that integrates these factors into a single equation that applies equally to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service objectives. We use two examples to illustrate the theory: bird conservation in tropical rainforests and coastal defence provided by mangrove forests

Reliability of Relative Predictions in Population Viability Analysis

Despite numerous claims that population viability analysis (PVA) makes reliable predictions of the relative risks of extinction, there is little evidence to support this assertion. To assess the veracity of the claim, we investigated uncertainty in the relative predictions of a PVA model with simulation experiments. We used a stochastic Ricker model to investigate the reliability of predicted changes in risks of decline in response to changes in parameters, the reliability of ranking species in terms of their relative threat, and the reliability of choosing the better of two management decisions. The predicted changes in risks of decline within 100 years were more reliable than absolute predictions. We made useful predictions of relative risks using only 10 years of data. Across 160 different parameter combinations, the rank correlation between the true risks of extinction within 100 years and predicted risks was 0.59 with 10 years of data, increasing to 0.89 with 100 years of data. We identified the better of two management strategies 67 74% of the time using 10 years of data, increasing to 92 93% of the time with 100 years of data. Our results demonstrate that, despite considerable uncertainty in the predicted risks of decline, PVA may reliably contribute to the management of threatened species

Inferring process from pattern: Can territory occupancy provide information about life history parameters?

A significant problem in wildlife management is identifying "good" habitat for species within the short time frames demanded by policy makers. Statistical models of the response of species presence/absence to predictor variables are one solution, widely known as habitat modeling. We use a "virtual ecologist" to test logistic regression as a means of developing habitat models within a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation that allows habitat quality to influence either fecundity or survival with a continuous scale. The basic question is how good are logistic regression models of habitat quality at identifying habitat where birth rates are high and death rates low (i.e., "source" habitat)? We find that, even when all the important variables are perfectly measured, and there is no error in surveying the species of interest, demographic stochasticity and the limiting effect of localized dispersal generally prevent an explanation of much more than half of the variation in territory occupancy as a function of habitat quality. This is true regardless of whether fecundity or survival is influenced by habitat quality. In addition, habitat models only detect a significant effect of habitat on territory occupancy when habitat quality is spatially autocorrelated. We find that habitat models based on logistic regression really measure the ability of the species to reach and colonize areas, not birth or death rates

Large-scale conservation planning in a multinational marine environment: Cost matters

Explicitly including cost in marine conservation planning is essential for achieving feasible and efficient conservation outcomes. Yet, spatial priorities for marine conservation are still often based solely on biodiversity hotspots, species richness, and/or cumulative threat maps. This study aims to provide an approach for including cost when planning large-scale Marine Protected Area (MPA) networks that span multiple countries. Here, we explore the incorporation of cost in the complex setting of the Mediterranean Sea. In order to include cost in conservation prioritization, we developed surrogates that account for revenue from multiple marine sectors: commercial fishing, noncommercial fishing, and aquaculture. Such revenue can translate into an opportunity cost for the implementation of an MPA network. Using the software Marxan, we set conservation targets to protect 10% of the distribution of 77 threatened marine species in the Mediterranean Sea. We compared nine scenarios of opportunity cost by calculating the area and cost required to meet our targets. We further compared our spatial priorities with those that are considered consensus areas by several proposed prioritization schemes in the Mediterranean Sea, none of which explicitly considers cost. We found that for less than 10% of the Sea's area, our conservation targets can be achieved while incurring opportunity costs of less than 1%. In marine systems, we reveal that area is a poor cost surrogate and that the most effective surrogates are those that account for multiple sectors or stakeholders. Furthermore, our results indicate that including cost can greatly influence the selection of spatial priorities for marine conservation of threatened species. Although there are known limitations in multinational large-scale planning, attempting to devise more systematic and rigorous planning methods is especially critical given that collaborative conservation action is on the rise and global financial crisis restricts conservation investments