Decadal attribution of historic temperature and ocean heat content change to anthropogenic emissions

We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the CMIP5 temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the average climate model would need to simulate the observed global mean surface temperature anomalies. We further infer the anthropogenic aerosols radiative forcing as a residual using the better-known greenhouse gas radiative forcing. This allows an independent estimate of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which suggests a cooling influence due to aerosols in the early part of the 20th century. The temporal kernels are also used to calculate decadal contributions from the dominant forcing agents to present day temperature, ocean heat content, and thermosteric sea level rise. The current global mean temperature anomaly is dominated by emissions in the past two decades, while current ocean heat content is more strongly affected by earlier decades.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, in revision in GR

Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer's dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels

Options to Accelerate Ozone Recovery: Ozone and Climate Benefits

The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone primarily originated from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine). Representatives from governments have met periodically over the years to establish international regulations starting with the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which greatly limited the release of these ozone-depleting substances (DDSs). Two global models have been used to investigate the impact of hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ODSs on total column ozone. The investigations primarily focused on chlorine- and bromine-containing gases, but some computations also included nitrous oxide (N2O). The Montreal Protocol with ODS controls have been so successful that further regulations of chlorine- and bromine-containing gases could have only a fraction of the impact that regulations already in force have had. if all anthropogenic ODS emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1-2% during the period 2030-2100 compared to a case of no additional ODS restrictions. Chlorine- and bromine-containing gases and nitrous oxide are also greenhouse gases and lead to warming of the troposphere. Elimination of N 20 emissions would result in a reduction of radiative forcing of 0.23 W/sq m in 2100 than presently computed and destruction of the CFC bank would produce a reduction in radiative forcing of 0.005 W/sq m in 2100. This paper provides a quantitative way to consider future regulations of the CFC bank and N 20 emission

Attacks on quantum key distribution protocols that employ non-ITS authentication

We demonstrate how adversaries with unbounded computing resources can break Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) protocols which employ a particular message authentication code suggested previously. This authentication code, featuring low key consumption, is not Information-Theoretically Secure (ITS) since for each message the eavesdropper has intercepted she is able to send a different message from a set of messages that she can calculate by finding collisions of a cryptographic hash function. However, when this authentication code was introduced it was shown to prevent straightforward Man-In-The-Middle (MITM) attacks against QKD protocols. In this paper, we prove that the set of messages that collide with any given message under this authentication code contains with high probability a message that has small Hamming distance to any other given message. Based on this fact we present extended MITM attacks against different versions of BB84 QKD protocols using the addressed authentication code; for three protocols we describe every single action taken by the adversary. For all protocols the adversary can obtain complete knowledge of the key, and for most protocols her success probability in doing so approaches unity. Since the attacks work against all authentication methods which allow to calculate colliding messages, the underlying building blocks of the presented attacks expose the potential pitfalls arising as a consequence of non-ITS authentication in QKD-postprocessing. We propose countermeasures, increasing the eavesdroppers demand for computational power, and also prove necessary and sufficient conditions for upgrading the discussed authentication code to the ITS level.Comment: 34 page

Status of the low emittance upgrade of the advanced light source

The Advanced Light Source is one of the earliest 3rd generation light sources. With an active upgrade program it has remained competitive over the years. The latest in a series of upgrades is a lattice upgrade project that was started in 2009. When it will be completed, the ALS will operate with a horizontal emittance of 2.2 nm and an effective emittance of 2.6 nm. Combined with the high current of 500 mA and the small vertical emittance the ALS already operates at, this upgrade will keep it competitive for years to come. This paper summarizes the status of the upgrade, including beam dynamics studies and lattice optimizations as well as the magnet design

1,2-Dichlorohexafluoro-Cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) a Potent Ozone Depleting Substance and Greenhouse Gas: Atmospheric Loss Processes, Lifetimes, and Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Potentials for the (E) and (Z) stereoisomers

The atmospheric processing of (E)- and (Z)-1,2-dichlorohexafluorocyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) was examined in this work as the ozone depleting (ODP) and global warming (GWP) potentials of this proposed replacement compound are presently unknown. The predominant atmospheric loss processes and infrared absorption spectra of the R-316c isomers were measured to provide a basis to evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes and, thus, ODPs and GWPs. UV absorption spectra were measured between 184.95 to 230 nm at temperatures between 214 and 296 K and a parametrization for use in atmospheric modeling is presented. The Cl atom quantum yield in the 193 nm photolysis of R- 316c was measured to be 1.90 +/- 0.27. Hexafluorocyclobutene (c-C4F6) was determined to be a photolysis co-product with molar yields of 0.7 and 1.0 (+/-10%) for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. The 296 K total rate coefficient for the O(1D) + R-316c reaction, i.e., O(1D) loss, was measured to be (1.56 +/- 0.11) 10(exp 10)cu cm/ molecule/s and the reactive rate coefficient, i.e., R-316c loss, was measured to be (1.36 +/- 0.20) 10(exp 10)cu cm/molecule/s corresponding to a approx. 88% reactive yield. Rate coefficient upper-limits for the OH and O3 reaction with R-316c were determined to be <2.3 10(exp 17) and <2.0 10(exp 22)cu cm/molecule/s, respectively, at 296 K. The quoted uncertainty limits are 2(sigma) and include estimated systematic errors. Local and global annually averaged lifetimes for the (E)- and (Z)-R-316c isomers were calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model to be 74.6 +/- 3 and 114.1 +/-10 years, respectively, where the estimated uncertainties are due solely to the uncertainty in the UV absorption spectra. Stratospheric photolysis is the predominant atmospheric loss process for both isomers with the O(1D) reaction making a minor, approx. 2% for the (E) isomer and 7% for the (Z) isomer, contribution to the total atmospheric loss. Ozone depletion potentials for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were calculated using the 2-D model to be 0.46 and 0.54, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were measured at 296 K and used to estimate their radiative efficiencies (REs) and GWPs; 100-year time-horizon GWPs of 4160 and 5400 were obtained for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. Both isomers of R-316c are shown in this work to be long-lived ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases

A comparison of observations and model simulations of NO_x/NO_y in the lower stratosphere

Extensive airborne measurements of the reactive nitrogen reservoir (NO_(y)) and its component nitric oxide (NO) have been made in the lower stratosphere. Box model simulations that are constrained by observations of radical and long-lived species and which include heterogeneous chemistry systematically underpredict the NO_x (= NO + NO_2) to NO_y ratio. The model agreement is substantially improved if newly measured rate coefficients for the OH + NO_2 and OH + HNO_3 reactions are used. When included in 2-D models, the new rate coefficients significantly increase the calculated ozone loss due to NO_x and modestly change the calculated ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere. Ozone changes associated with the emissions of a fleet of supersonic aircraft are also altered

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff and water resources from hydrological and ecosystem models in ISI-MIP

Projections of future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed. Projections of change from the baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from a number of different ecosystems and hydrological models were studied. The differences between projections from the two types of model were looked at globally and regionally. Typically, across different regions the ecosystem models tended to project larger increases and smaller decreases in runoff than the hydrological models. However, the differences varied both regionally and seasonally. Sensitivity experiments were also used to investigate the contributions of varying CO2 and allowing vegetation distribution to evolve on projected changes in runoff. In two out of four models which had data available from CO2 sensitivity experiments, allowing CO2 to vary was found to increase runoff more than keeping CO2 constant, while in two models runoff decreased. This suggests more uncertainty in runoff responses to elevated CO2 than previously considered. As CO2 effects on evapotranspiration via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index are more commonly included in ecosystems models than in hydrological models, this may partially explain some of the difference between model types. Keeping the vegetation distribution static in JULES runs had much less effect on runoff projections than varying CO2, but this may be more pronounced if looked at over a longer timescale as vegetation changes may take longer to reach a new state