High Frequency Trading and Mini Flash Crashes

We analyse all Mini Flash Crashes (or Flash Equity Failures) in the US equity markets in the four most volatile months during 2006-2011. In contrast to previous studies, we find that Mini Flash Crashes are the result of regulation framework and market fragmentation, in particular due to the aggressive use of Intermarket Sweep Orders and Regulation NMS protecting only Top of the Book. We find strong evidence that Mini Flash Crashes have an adverse impact on market liquidity and are associated with Fleeting Liquidity

Gender Diverse Portfolios as New Asset Class

This paper studies market-traded equity portfolios that are constructed based on a minimum number of female board members and/or a target female work force ratio. Using the top 1,000 US firms from 2002 to 2015 as the tradable asset universe, we replicate and backtest five gender diverse portfolios. We find that these portfolios have smaller idiosyncratic risks and that their constituent firms have better CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) rating. Consistent with previous research findings on CSR stocks, these gender diverse portfolios also have a smaller downside risk. From the portfolio's risk-return performance and their social policy implication, we argue that that these gender diverse portfolios constitute a new asset class

Rating-based CDS curves

This paper explores the extent to which term structure of individual credit default swap (CDS) spreads can be explained by the firm's rating. Using the Nelson–Siegel model, we construct, for each day, CDS curves from a cross-section of CDS spreads for each rating class. We find that individual CDS deviations from the curve tend to diminish over time and CDS spreads converge towards the fitted curves. The likelihood of convergence increases with the absolute size of the deviation. The convergence is especially stable if CDS spreads are lower relative to the rating-based curve. Trading strategies exploiting the convergence generate an average return of 3.7% (5-day holding period) and 9% (20-day holding period)

Option pricing with random risk aversion

Based on a standard general equilibrium economy, we develop a framework for pricing European options where the risk aversion parameter is state dependent, and aggregate wealth and the underlying asset have a bivariate transformed-normal distribution. Our results show that the volatility and the skewness of the risk aversion parameter change the slope of the pricing kernel, and that, as the volatility of the risk aversion parameter increases, the (Black and Scholes) implied volatility shifts upwards but its shape remains the same, which implies that the volatility of the risk aversion parameter does not change the shape of the risk neutral distribution. Also, we demonstrate that the pricing kernel may become non-monotonic for high levels of volatility and low levels of skewness of the risk aversion parameter. An empirical example shows that the estimated volatility of the risk aversion parameter tends to be low in periods of high market volatility and vice-versa

Moneyness, Volatility, and the Cross-Section of Option Returns

We study the effect of an asset's volatility on the expected returns of European options written on the asset. A simple stochastic discount factor model suggests that the effect differs depending on whether variations in volatility are due to variations in systematic or idiosyncratic volatility. While variations in idiosyncratic volatility only affect an option's elasticity, variations in systematic volatility also oppositely affect the underlying asset's risk. Since moneyness modulates these effects, systematic volatility positively (negatively) prices options with high (low) asset-to-strike price ratios, while idiosyncratic volatility is unambiguously priced. Single-stock call option data support our predictions

Slow- and fast-moving information content of CDS spreads: new endogenous systematic factors

This paper proposes two new Credit Default Swap (CDS) endogenous systematic factors constructed from peer-CDS information. The factors capture slow-moving credit risk information, as well as fast-moving newly arrived market information embedded in the most recent CDS quotes. Using a sample of U.S. non-financial listed firms from 2002 to 2011, we find that these two endogenous systematic factors dominate firm-specific factors and other widely known systematic factors in in-sample and out-of-sample CDS spread predictions

Belief rule-based system for portfolio optimisation with nonlinear cash-flows and constraints

AbstractA belief rule-based (BRB) system is a generic nonlinear modelling and inference scheme. It is based on the concept of belief structures and evidential reasoning (ER), and has been shown to be capable of capturing complicated nonlinear causal relationships between antecedent attributes and consequents. The aim of this paper is to develop a BRB system that complements the RiskMetrics WealthBench system for portfolio optimisation with nonlinear cash-flows and constraints. Two optimisation methods are presented to locate efficient portfolios under different constraints specified by the investors. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology