Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results show that each baseline method has its specific strengths and weaknesses. Although the dynamic model allows for the best environmental and for comparatively good economic performance, its high demand for data and technical capacity limit the current applicability in many developing countries.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The adoption of a multi-tier approach will allow countries to select the baseline method best suiting their specific capabilities and data availability while simultaneously ensuring scientific transparency, environmental effectiveness and broad political support.</p

Random Amino Acid Mutations and Protein Misfolding Lead to Shannon Limit in Sequence-Structure Communication

The transmission of genomic information from coding sequence to protein structure during protein synthesis is subject to stochastic errors. To analyze transmission limits in the presence of spurious errors, Shannon's noisy channel theorem is applied to a communication channel between amino acid sequences and their structures established from a large-scale statistical analysis of protein atomic coordinates. While Shannon's theorem confirms that in close to native conformations information is transmitted with limited error probability, additional random errors in sequence (amino acid substitutions) and in structure (structural defects) trigger a decrease in communication capacity toward a Shannon limit at 0.010 bits per amino acid symbol at which communication breaks down. In several controls, simulated error rates above a critical threshold and models of unfolded structures always produce capacities below this limiting value. Thus an essential biological system can be realistically modeled as a digital communication channel that is (a) sensitive to random errors and (b) restricted by a Shannon error limit. This forms a novel basis for predictions consistent with observed rates of defective ribosomal products during protein synthesis, and with the estimated excess of mutual information in protein contact potentials

Recognition of Anesthetic Barbiturates by a Protein Binding Site: A High Resolution Structural Analysis

Barbiturates potentiate GABA actions at the GABAA receptor and act as central nervous system depressants that can induce effects ranging from sedation to general anesthesia. No structural information has been available about how barbiturates are recognized by their protein targets. For this reason, we tested whether these drugs were able to bind specifically to horse spleen apoferritin, a model protein that has previously been shown to bind many anesthetic agents with affinities that are closely correlated with anesthetic potency. Thiopental, pentobarbital, and phenobarbital were all found to bind to apoferritin with affinities ranging from 10–500 µM, approximately matching the concentrations required to produce anesthetic and GABAergic responses. X-ray crystal structures were determined for the complexes of apoferritin with thiopental and pentobarbital at resolutions of 1.9 and 2.0 Å, respectively. These structures reveal that the barbiturates bind to a cavity in the apoferritin shell that also binds haloalkanes, halogenated ethers, and propofol. Unlike these other general anesthetics, however, which rely entirely upon van der Waals interactions and the hydrophobic effect for recognition, the barbiturates are recognized in the apoferritin site using a mixture of both polar and nonpolar interactions. These results suggest that any protein binding site that is able to recognize and respond to the chemically and structurally diverse set of compounds used as general anesthetics is likely to include a versatile mixture of both polar and hydrophobic elements