A Stochastic Simulation Model for the Efficacy of Vaccination Against Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in Dairy Sheep and Goats

Abstract. We assessed the benefits of vaccination against Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) on the average daily milk yield (DMY) of sheep and goat flocks. A stochastic simulation model was used to estimate the DMY pre and post vaccination of the flock replacements. The average DMY increased steadily for the first ten years post vaccination and then reached a plateau. Medians for the DMY were significantly higher post vaccination. The expected difference between the prevalence of MAP infection between and after the initiation of the vaccination program was the most influential factor for the DMY benefits. Vaccination of replacements in a MAP infected flock is expected to improve the overall milk productivity in the long term

Animal Health Discourse during Ecological Crises in the Media - Lessons Learnt from the Flood in Thessaly from the One Health Perspective

Due to the increasing risk of extreme events caused by climate change (i.e., floods, fires and hurricanes) or wars, European veterinary public health may need some improvement. Utilizing a mix of qualitative (participatory observation) and quantitative methods (Internet mining), we analyzed the Greek media’s responses to the millennial flood in Thessaly (September 2023), focusing on animal health (including wild, companion animals and livestock) and public sentiment towards epizootic/epidemic threats. The study revealed a gap in crisis management plans regarding veterinary-related issues, emphasizing the need for comprehensive emergency response strategies. Our findings show how (i) the lay referral system is projecting the perception of epidemic threats into the population; (ii) the emotional load of images of animal carcasses is misused by media creators aiming for a big audience; and (iii) pets’ owners are creating online communities for the searching and treatment of their pets. Our results stress the importance of integrating crisis communication in consecutive phases of the discourse, such as the following: (i) weather change; (ii) acute flood; (iii) recovery; and (iv) outbreaks, into veterinary practices to better prepare for such disasters

Visualizing stability in studies: the moving average meta-analysis (MA2)

Relative clinical benefits are often visually explored and formally analysed through a (cumulative) meta-analysis. In this manuscript, we introduce and further explore the moving average meta-analysis to aid towards the exploration and visualization of stability in a meta-analysis.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabl

A quantitative analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the bluetongue virus outbreak in the island of Lesvos, Greece in 2014

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes an infectious disease called bluetongue, a vector-borne viral disease of ruminants, which has major implications and causes severe economic damage due to its effect on livestock. These economic costs are mostly ascribed to the trade restrictions imposed during the epidemic period. In August 2014, an epidemic of bluetongue occurred in the island of Lesvos, Greece. The epidemic was severe and evolved over time, lasting until December 2014. The total cases of infected farms were 490, including a total number of 136,368 small ruminants. In this paper, we describe a bluetongue virus serotype 4 (BTV-4) epidemic and utilize Bayesian epidemic models to capture the spatio-temporal spread of the disease. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission and has implications for designing control strategies. The results showed strong spatial autocorrelations, with BTV being more likely to spread between farms located nearby. The spatial modelling results proposed a certain spatial radius (~12 km) around the onset of a similar epidemic for imposing restrictions on animal movement, which can be sufficient for the control of the disease and limit economic damage

Early warning of potential epidemics: A pilot application of an early warning tool to data from the pulmonary clinic of the university hospital of Thessaly, Greece

Background & methods: This paper describes a pilot application of the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI) to data from the pulmonary clinic of the University Hospital of Thessaly, Greece, for monitoring respiratory infections, COVID-19, and flu cases. EVI, a simple and easily implemented early warning method based on the volatility of newly reported cases, exhibited consistent and stable performance in detecting new waves of epidemics. The study highlights the importance of implementing early warning tools to address the effects of epidemics, including containment of outbreaks, timely intervention strategies, and resource allocation within real-world clinical settings as part of a broader public health strategy. Results: The results presented in the figures demonstrate the association between successive early warnings and the onset of new waves, providing valuable insights for proactive decision-making. A web-based application enabling real-time monitoring and informed decision-making by healthcare professionals, public health officials, and policymakers was developed. Conclusions: This study emphasizes the significant role of early warning methods in managing epidemics and safeguarding public health. Future research may explore extensions and combinations of multiple warning systems for optimal outbreak interventions and application of the methods in the context of personalized medicine

Statement of the ASPHER Task Force on War and Public Health on the Conflict in Israel/Palestine

Copyright © 2024 Razum, Barach, Bochenek, Cunningham, Davidovitch, Kostoulas, Lindert, Lopes, Prikazsky, Reid, Tiljak and Middleto

Development of a multiplex bead assay to detect serological responses to Brucella species in domestic pigs and wild boar with the potential to overcome cross-reactivity with Yersinia enterocolitica O:9

This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Themes in Brucella and Brucellosis.The aim of this study was to develop a multiplex bead assay using a Brucella rLPS antigen, a Brucella suis smooth antigen, and a Yersinia enterocolitica O:9 antigen that not only discriminates Brucella-infected from Brucella-uninfected pigs and wild boar, but also overcomes the cross reactivity with Y. enterocolitica O:9. Sera from 126 domestic pigs were tested: 29 pigs were Brucella infected, 80 were non-infected and 17 were confirmed to be false positive serological reactors (FPSR). Sera from 49 wild boar were tested: 18 were positive and 31 were negative. Using the rLPS antigen, 26/29 Brucella-infected domestic pigs and 15/18 seropositive wild boar were positive, while 75/80 non-Brucella infected domestic pigs, all FPSR, and all seronegative wild boar were negative. Using the smooth B. suis 1330 antigen, all Brucella-infected domestic pigs, 9/17 FPSR and all seropositive wild boar were positive, while all non-infected pigs and 30/31 seronegative wild boar were negative. The ratio of the readouts from the smooth B. suis antigen and Y. enterocolitica O:9 antigen enabled discriminating all Brucella infected individuals from the FPSR domestic pigs. These results demonstrate the potential of this assay for use in the surveillance of brucellosis, overcoming the cross-reactivity with Y. enterocolitica.We thankfully acknowledge the financial support of the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 222633 (WildTech) entitled “Novel Technologies for Surveillance of Emerging and Re-emerging Infections of Wildlife”.Peer reviewe