Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio-logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio-logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short-term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre-seismic animal activities to be used in real-time observation stations

Response to Zöller et al.'s critique on “Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring”

Zöller et al. (Ethology, 2020) criticize our original publication (Wikelski et al., Ethology, 126(9), 2020, 931) for obvious reasons: we only observed the behavior of one group of farm animals before, during and after one earthquake series in one area of the world. It is clear that no earthquake predictions are possible, and should not be attempted, from this data set. However, what we show is that there is important information within this animal collective pertaining to potential future local forecasting of earthquakes when combined with traditional data sources. We maintain that combining Zöller et al.'s (2020) modeling tools with the adequate use of our data can stimulate novel ways of earthquake forecasting. Future studies should combine both approaches

Beidseitige Informationsasymmetrien in der Arzt-Patient-Beziehung: Implikationen für die GKV

Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert die Interdependenzen und Informationsstrukturen im Gesundheitswesen. Hauptansatzpunkt ist die beidseitig asymmetrische Information zwischen Arzt und Patient. Der Patient kann i. d. R. weder die Wirkung der Leistungen des Arztes genau einordnen, noch besitzt der Arzt genauere Informationen über das behandlungsbegleitende Verhalten des Patienten. Die Interdependenzen zwischen diesen Handlungen bestimmen das resultierende Gleichgewicht. Die Einführung einer Selbstbeteiligung für den Patienten führt zu einer verbesserten Compliance, das Niveau der medizinischen Leistung hängt von den Interdependenzen ab. Die Implikationen, die sich aus dem Modell ergeben, lassen auf ein Kommunikationsdefizit zwischen Arzt und Patient schließen. Eine Stärkung der Compliance ist zum einen durch verbesserte Information des Arztes, zum anderen durch finanzielle Anreize, insbesondere durch die Einführung einer Selbstbeteiligung, möglich. Die Krankenkassen als ergänzender Sachwalter der Patienten können in der Arzt-Patient-Beziehung vor allem Aufgaben wie Vertragsabschlüsse übernehmen, benötigen dazu jedoch mehr Gestaltungsfreiheit

Nomenclature for renal replacement therapy and blood purification techniques in critically ill patients: practical applications

This article reports the conclusions of the second part of a consensus expert conference on the nomenclature of renal replacement therapy (RRT) techniques currently utilized to manage acute kidney injury and other organ dysfunction syndromes in critically ill patients. A multidisciplinary approach was taken to achieve harmonization of definitions, components, techniques, and operations of the extracorporeal therapies. The article describes the RRT techniques in detail with the relevant technology, procedures, and phases of treatment and key aspects of volume management/fluid balance in critically ill patients. In addition, the article describes recent developments in other extracorporeal therapies, including therapeutic plasma exchange, multiple organ support therapy, liver support, lung support, and blood purification in sepsis. This is a consensus report on nomenclature harmonization in extracorporeal blood purification therapies, such as hemofiltration, plasma exchange, multiple organ support therapies, and blood purification in sepsis

Need-based resource allocation: different need indicators, different results?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A key policy objective in most publicly financed health care systems is to allocate resources according to need. Many jurisdictions implement this policy objective through need-based allocation models. To date, no gold standard exists for selecting need indicators. In the absence of a gold standard, sensitivity of the choice of need indicators is of concern. The primary objective of this study was to assess the consistency and plausibility of estimates of per capita relative need for health services across Canadian provinces based on different need indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the 2000/2001 Canadian Community Health Survey, we estimated relative per capita need for general practitioner, specialist, and hospital services by province using two approaches that incorporated a different set of need indicators: (1) demographics (age and sex), and (2) demographics, socioeconomic status, and health status. For both approaches, we first fitted regression models to estimate standard utilization of each of three types of health services by indicators of need. We defined the standard as average levels of utilization by needs indicators in the national sample. Subsequently, we estimated expected per capita utilization of each type of health services in each province. We compared these estimates of per capita relative need with premature mortality in each province to check their face validity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both approaches suggested that expected relative per capita need for three services vary across provinces. Different approaches, however, yielded different and inconsistent results. Moreover, provincial per capita relative need for the three health services did not always indicate the same direction of need suggested by premature mortality in each province. In particular, the two approaches suggested Newfoundland had less need than the Canadian average for all three services, but it had the highest premature mortality in Canada.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Substantial differences in need for health care may exist across Canadian provinces, but the direction and magnitude of differences depend on the need indicators used. Allocations from models using survey data lacked face validity for some provinces. These results call for the need to better understand the biases that may result from the use of survey data for resource allocation.</p

Financial crisis and income-related inequalities in the universal provision of a public service: the case of healthcare in Spain

Background The objective of this paper is to analyse whether the recent recession has altered health care utilisation patterns of different income groups in Spain. Methods Based on information concerning individuals ‘income and health care use, along with health need indicators and demographic characteristics (provided by the Spanish National Health Surveys from 2006/07 and 2011/12), econometric models are estimated in two parts (mixed logistic regressions and truncated negative binominal regressions) for each of the public health services studied (family doctor appointments, appointments with specialists, hospitalisations, emergencies and prescription drug use). Results The results show that the principle of universal access to public health provision does not in fact prevent a financial crisis from affecting certain income groups more than others in their utilisation of public health services. Conclusions Specifically, in relative terms the recession has been more detrimental to low-income groups in the cases of specialist appointments and hospitalisations, whereas it has worked to their advantage in the cases of emergency services and family doctor appointments

Out-of-pocket expenditures for pharmaceuticals: lessons from the Austrian household budget survey

BACKGROUND: Paying pharmaceuticals out-of-pocket is an important source of financing pharmaceutical consumption. Only limited empirical knowledge is available on the determinants of these expenditures. OBJECTIVES: In this paper we analyze which characteristics of private households influence out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure (OOPPE) in Austria. DESIGN & METHODS: We use cross-sectional information on OOPPE and on household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10. We split pharmaceutical expenditures into the two components prescription fees and over-the-counter (OTC) expenditures. To adjust for the specific characteristics of the data we compare different econometric approaches: two-part model, hurdle model, generalized linear model, zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. FINDINGS: The finally selected econometric approaches give a quite consistent picture. The probability of expenditures of both types is strongly influenced by the household structure. It increases with age, doctoral visits and the presence of a female householder. The education level and income only increase the probability of OTC-pharmaceuticals. The level of OTC-expenditures remains widely unexplained while the household structure and age influences the expenditures for prescription fees. Insurance characteristics of private households either private or public play a minor role in explaining the expenditure levels in all specifications. This refers to a homogenous and comprehensive provision of pharmaceuticals in the public part of the Austrian health care system. CONCLUSIONS: The paper gives useful insights into the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures of private households and supplements the previous research which focuses on the individual level

Measuring root system traits of wheat in 2D images to parameterize 3D root architecture models

Background and aimsThe main difficulty in the use of 3D root architecture models is correct parameterization. We evaluated distributions of the root traits inter-branch distance, branching angle and axial root trajectories from contrasting experimental systems to improve model parameterization.MethodsWe analyzed 2D root images of different wheat varieties (Triticum aestivum) from three different sources using automatic root tracking. Model input parameters and common parameter patterns were identified from extracted root system coordinates. Simulation studies were used to (1) link observed axial root trajectories with model input parameters (2) evaluate errors due to the 2D (versus 3D) nature of image sources and (3) investigate the effect of model parameter distributions on root foraging performance.ResultsDistributions of inter-branch distances were approximated with lognormal functions. Branching angles showed mean values <90°. Gravitropism and tortuosity parameters were quantified in relation to downwards reorientation and segment angles of root axes. Root system projection in 2D increased the variance of branching angles. Root foraging performance was very sensitive to parameter distribution and variance.Conclusions2D image analysis can systematically and efficiently analyze root system architectures and parameterize 3D root architecture models. Effects of root system projection (2D from 3D) and deflection (at rhizotron face) on size and distribution of particular parameters are potentially significant

A Glutamic Acid-Rich Protein Identified in Verticillium dahliae from an Insertional Mutagenesis Affects Microsclerotial Formation and Pathogenicity

Verticillium dahliae Kleb. is a phytopathogenic fungus that causes wilt disease in a wide range of crops, including cotton. The life cycle of V. dahliae includes three vegetative phases: parasitic, saprophytic and dormant. The dormant microsclerotia are the primary infectious propagules, which germinate when they are stimulated by root exudates. In this study, we report the first application of Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation (ATMT) for construction of insertional mutants from a virulent defoliating isolate of V. dahliae (V592). Changes in morphology, especially a lack of melanized microsclerotia or pigmentation traits, were observed in mutants. Together with the established laboratory unimpaired root dip-inoculation approach, we found insertional mutants to be affected in their pathogenicities in cotton. One of the genes tagged in a pathogenicity mutant encoded a glutamic acid-rich protein (VdGARP1), which shared no significant similarity to any known annotated gene. The vdgarp1 mutant showed vigorous mycelium growth with a significant delay in melanized microsclerotial formation. The expression of VdGARP1 in the wild type V529 was organ-specific and differentially regulated by different stress agencies and conditions, in addition to being stimulated by cotton root extract in liquid culture medium. Under extreme infertile nutrient conditions, VdGARP1 was not necessary for melanized microsclerotial formation. Taken together, our data suggest that VdGARP1 plays an important role in sensing infertile nutrient conditions in infected cells to promote a transfer from saprophytic to dormant microsclerotia for long-term survival. Overall, our findings indicate that insertional mutagenesis by ATMT is a valuable tool for the genome-wide analysis of gene function and identification of pathogenicity genes in this important cotton pathogen