Bessel processes, the Brownian snake and super-Brownian motion

We prove that, both for the Brownian snake and for super-Brownian motion in dimension one, the historical path corresponding to the minimal spatial position is a Bessel process of dimension -5. We also discuss a spine decomposition for the Brownian snake conditioned on the minimizing path.Comment: Submitted to the special volume of S\'eminaire de Probabilit\'es in memory of Marc Yo

Stochastic B\"acklund transformations

How does one introduce randomness into a classical dynamical system in order to produce something which is related to the `corresponding' quantum system? We consider this question from a probabilistic point of view, in the context of some integrable Hamiltonian systems

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr−1). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO2 in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment. We assessed model predictions using observations from a native Eucalyptus woodland that experienced repeated droughts and heatwaves between 2013 and 2020, whilst exposed to an elevated [CO2] treatment. Our combined approaches improved predictions of transpiration and enhanced the simulated magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect on gross primary productivity. The competing approaches also worked consistently along axes of change in soil moisture, leaf area, and [CO2]. Despite predictions of a significant percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity due to embolism (PLC) in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (99th percentile PLC > 45%), simulated hydraulic legacy effects were small and short-lived (2 months). Our analysis suggests that leaf shedding and/or suppressed foliage growth formed a strategy to mitigate drought risk. Accounting for foliage responses to water availability has the potential to improve model predictions of ecosystem resilience

One Stomatal Model to Rule Them All?:Toward Improved Representation of Carbon and Water Exchange in Global Models

Stomatal conductance schemes that optimize with respect to photosynthetic and hydraulic functions have been proposed to address biases in land-surface model (LSM) simulations during drought. However, systematic evaluations of both optimality-based and alternative empirical formulations for coupling carbon and water fluxes are lacking. Here, we embed 12 empirical and optimization approaches within a LSM framework. We use theoretical model experiments to explore parameter identifiability and understand how model behaviors differ in response to abiotic changes. We also evaluate the models against leaf-level observations of gas-exchange and hydraulic variables, from xeric to wet forest/woody species spanning a mean annual precipitation range of 361–3,286 mm yr−1. We find that models differ in how easily parameterized they are, due to: (a) poorly constrained optimality criteria (i.e., resulting in multiple solutions), (b) low influence parameters, (c) sensitivities to environmental drivers. In both the idealized experiments and compared to observations, sensitivities to variability in environmental drivers do not agree among models. Marked differences arise in sensitivities to soil moisture (soil water potential) and vapor pressure deficit. For example, stomatal closure rates at high vapor pressure deficit range between −45% and +70% of those observed. Although over half the new generation of stomatal schemes perform to a similar standard compared to observations of leaf-gas exchange, two models do so through large biases in simulated leaf water potential (up to 11 MPa). Our results provide guidance for LSM development, by highlighting key areas in need for additional experimentation and theory, and by constraining currently viable stomatal hypotheses

Properties of layer-by-layer vector stochastic models of force fluctuations in granular materials

We attempt to describe the stress distributions of granular packings using lattice-based layer-by-layer stochastic models that satisfy the constraints of force and torque balance and non-tensile forces at each site. The inherent asymmetry in the layer-by-layer approach appears to lead to an asymmetric force distribution, in disagreement with both experiments and general symmetry considerations. The vertical force component probability distribution is robust and in agreement with predictions of the scalar q model while the distribution of horizontal force components is qualitatively different and depends on the details of implementation.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures (with subfigures), 1 table. Uses revtex, epsfig,subfigure, and cite. Submitted to PRE. Plots have been bitmapped. High-resolution version is available. Email [email protected] or download from http://rainbow.uchicago.edu/~mbnguyen/research/vm.htm

National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic

Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = −0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.publishedVersio

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2,3,4,5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets

Search for heavy resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a Higgs boson in final states with leptons and b-jets in 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This article presents a search for new resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a 125 GeV Higgs boson h, and it targets the νν¯¯¯bb¯¯, ℓ+ℓ−bb¯¯, or ℓ±νbb¯¯ final states, where ℓ = e or μ, in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. The data used correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC at CERN. The search is conducted by examining the reconstructed invariant or transverse mass distributions of Zh or Wh candidates for evidence of a localised excess in the mass range from 220 GeV to 5 TeV. No significant excess is observed and 95% confidence-level upper limits between 1.3 pb and 0.3 fb are placed on the production cross section times branching fraction of neutral and charged spin-1 resonances and CP-odd scalar bosons. These limits are converted into constraints on the parameter space of the Heavy Vector Triplet model and the two-Higgs-doublet model

Search for single vector-like B quark production and decay via B → bH(b¯b) in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for single production of a vector-like B quark decaying into a Standard Model b-quark and a Standard Model Higgs boson, which decays into a b¯b pair. The search is carried out in 139 fb−1 of √s = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC between 2015 and 2018. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and mass-dependent exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the resonance production cross-section in several theoretical scenarios determined by the couplings cW, cZ and cH between the B quark and the Standard Model W, Z and Higgs bosons, respectively. For a vector-like B occurring as an isospin singlet, the search excludes values of cW greater than 0.45 for a B resonance mass (mB) between 1.0 and 1.2 TeV. For 1.2 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV, cW values larger than 0.50–0.65 are excluded. If the B occurs as part of a (B, Y) doublet, the smallest excluded cZ coupling values range between 0.3 and 0.5 across the investigated resonance mass range 1.0 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV