O REGIME DE CÂMBIO FLUTUANTE NUMA ETAPA DE TRANSIÇÃO

This article seeks to discuss questions related to exchange rate policy in the context of a transition from a high inflation situation, such as the one experienced by the Brazilian economy in recent years, to a regime of price stability. It is argued that the rising inflation in the 80s led to an exhaustion of the mini-devaluation system. The huge problems associated with the setting of the exchange rate are discussed. It is concluded that, although the freely floating exchange rate system is not a desirable alternative for the long run, a regime of managed floating exchange rates does constitute the least troublesome one in the context of the transition to price stability.Não há resumo

A política de câmbio do Plano Real (1994-1998): especificidades da âncora brasileira

Muitos traços comuns têm sido assinalados nas comparações entre diferentes programas de estabilização baseados em âncoras cambiais. Pode-se destacar como características geralmente observáveis nesses experimentos: grande eficácia para eliminar a alta inflação crônica, apreciação real do câmbio tendo por conseqüência grande aumento dos déficits em conta corrente, forte expansão inicial da demanda, em geral contida mais à frente pelo desequilíbrio externo. Há contudo algumas diferenças importantes, que podem ajudar a elucidar por que algumas economias vêm crescendo mais do que outras, por que algumas apresentam uma vulnerabilidade externa maior do que outras etc. Além disso, a identificação das singularidades locais permite pensar alternativas diferentes de política econômica e de desenvolvimento para cada economia. O presente texto tem por tema a experiência brasileira recente de política cambial, relacionando-a com a política de juros, e destacando algumas diferenças importantes com relação a outras economias que passaram por processos de estabilização semelhantes — baseados na âncora cambial — no passado.

Sem medo de flutuar? O regime cambial brasileiro pós-1998

O presente trabalho faz uma avaliação do arranjo cambial implantado no Brasil em 1999. Utilizando-se de indicadores do tipo Calvo-Reinhart faz-se uma comparação das características do regime brasileiro com o de outros países, com vistas a verificar se há evidências de "medo da flutuação". Tais indicadores mostram que o comportamento do governo deste país é bem mais intervencionista do que o de países que se caracterizam por uma flutuação genuína. Por outro lado, ao se fazer uma análise por períodos, percebe-se que, na ausência de choques externos fortes, o regime brasileiro se assemelhou a uma flutuação pura. Além disso, as evidências parecem sugerir que as autoridades monetárias manifestam medo maior de um desalinhamento grande da taxa real de câmbio do que da volatilidade cambial propriamente dita.The aim of this paper is to assess the exchange rate arrangement adopted in Brazil since January 1999. We use indicators of the Calvo-Reinhart type to evaluate if the monetary authorities in this country show fear of floating as compared to the cases of a number of other emerging economies as well as developed economies. Our results indicate that the Brazilian authorities intervene more intensively in the foreign exchange market than free floaters do. On the other hand, we can show, through an analysis period by period, that in the absence of strong external shocks, the Brazilian exchange rate arrangement looks like a pure floating one. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that monetary authorities seems to be more concerned about a large misalignment of the real exchange rate, than about volatility

Para que desta vez seja diferente

This paper takes for granted that the Brazilian economy is already recovering. Therefore, economic policy debate should focus on which requirements the economic model should meet to ensure that a bold process of development will follow the recovery, avoiding the curse of quasi-stagnation of the last decades. Some general proposals are made at the end of the paper, based upon the hypothesis that the main cause of the deep recession of the last three years was the inconsistency of the economic model put in place since the mid-2000. This model, based on the commodity-producing sectors, led to the deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy. On the macroeconomic side, the model was based on policies to boost domestic demand, leading to intense currency appreciation and an increasingly large current account deficit to reconcile aggregate demand and supply.O presente texto parte da suposto de que a economia já se encontra em recuperação. Por isso o debate deveria se deslocar para o desenho do modelo de crescimento futuro. Este deveria garantir um processo de desenvolvimento sustentado que superasse a maldição da quase estagnação. As proposições nesse sentido são baseadas no diagnóstico de que o determinante central da atual crise é a inconsistência do modelo econômico adotado desde meados da década passada. Esse modelo, que levou a um processo de desindustrialização, estaria fundado, de uma óptica estrutural, na expansão dos setores produtores de commodities. Pelo lado macroeconômico, suas bases estariam assentadas em políticas de forte expansão da demanda, câmbio apreciado, levando a um déficit crescente em transações correntes, como mecanismo de reconciliação dos desequilíbrios

O saldo e a dívida

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Constitutive modelling of mechanically induced martensitic transformations

PurposeThe purpose of this work is to apply a recently proposed constitutive model for mechanically induced martensitic transformations to the prediction of transformation loci. Additionally, this study aims to elucidate if a stress-assisted criterion can account for transformations in the so-called strain-induced regime.Design/methodology/approachThe model is derived by generalising the stress-based criterion of Patel and Cohen (1953), relying on lattice information obtained using the Phenomenological Theory of Martensite Crystallography. Transformation multipliers (cf. plastic multipliers) are introduced, from which the martensite volume fraction evolution ensues. The associated transformation functions provide a variant selection mechanism. Austenite plasticity follows a classical single crystal formulation, to account for transformations in the strain-induced regime. The resulting model is incorporated into a fully implicit RVE-based computational homogenisation finite element code.FindingsResults show good agreement with experimental data for a meta-stable austenitic stainless steel. In particular, the transformation locus is well reproduced, even in a material with considerable slip plasticity at the martensite onset, corroborating the hypothesis that an energy-based criterion can account for transformations in both stress-assisted and strain-induced regimes.Originality/valueA recently developed constitutive model for mechanically induced martensitic transformations is further assessed and validated. Its formulation is fundamentally based on a physical metallurgical mechanism and derived in a thermodynamically consistent way, inheriting a consistent mechanical dissipation. This model draws on a reduced number of phenomenological elements and is a step towards the fully predictive modelling of materials that exhibit such phenomena

Effective recommendations towards healthy routines to preserve mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective: To assess the adherence to a set of evidence-based recommendations to support mental health during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its association with depressive and anxiety symptoms. Methods: A team of health workers and researchers prepared the recommendations, formatted into three volumes (1: COVID-19 prevention; 2: Healthy habits; 3: Biological clock and sleep). Participants were randomized to receive only Volume 1 (control), Volumes 1 and 2, Volumes 1 and 3, or all volumes. We used a convenience sample of Portuguese-speaking participants over age 18 years. An online survey consisting of sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaires and mental health instruments (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9] and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 [GAD-7]) was administered. At 14 and 28 days later, participants were invited to complete follow-up surveys, which also included questions regarding adherence to the recommendations. A total of 409 participants completed the study – mostly young adult women holding university degrees. Results: The set of recommendations contained in Volumes 2 and 3 was effective in protecting mental health, as suggested by significant associations of adherence with PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores (reflecting anxiety and depression symptoms, respectively). Conclusion: The recommendations developed in this study could be useful to prevent negative mental health effects in the context of the pandemic and beyond