Centralization and Accountability: Theory and Evidence from the Clean Air Act.

This paper studies fi scal federalism when voter information varies across regions. We develop a model of political agency with heterogeneously informed voters. Rent-seeking politicians provide public goods to win the votes of the informed. As a result, rent extraction is lower in regions with higher information. In equilibrium, electoral discipline has decreasing returns. Thus, political centralization efficiently reduces aggregate rent extraction. The model predicts that a region' s benefi ts from centralization are decreasing in its residents' information. We test this prediction using panel data on pollutant emissions across U.S. states. The 1970 Clean Air Act centralized environmental policy at the federal level. In line with our theory, we fi nd that centralization induced a differential decrease in pollution for uninformed relative to informed states

Bladder cancer mortality of workers exposed to aromatic amines: analysis of models of carcinogenesis.

The effects of various factors were evaluated on both relative risk (multiplicative model), and absolute excess risk (additive model) of bladder cancer among 664 workers of a dyestuff factory in Northern Italy. These workers were exposed to aromatic amines in fairly constant working conditions from 1922 to 1970, and were employed for at least one year. They were followed up till the end of 1981 for a total of 12,302 man-years at risk. Under both models, the risk was greater for workers directly involved in aromatic amine manufacture than for those with only intermittent exposure. There was no marked effect of age at first exposure on the absolute excess risk of bladder cancer, but the relative risk was strongly and negatively related to age at first exposure. Under the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, this pattern of risk indicates an early stage effect. Absolute excess risk increased sharply during exposure, and continued to rise, although less sharply, after exposure had ceased. Relative risk, however, decreased after cessation of exposure, indicating a possible late stage effect. Thus, the results derived from both additive and multiplicative models are not in contrast when interpreted in terms of the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, though they are not totally consistent with a single-stage effect, either early or late. Aromatic amines may act on a stage somewhere between the first and penultimate, or on more than one stage of the process of carcinogenesis. Alternatively, it is possible that imprecision in the job classification or other observational problems may obscure the trends, or produce fictitious trends in the effects of variables such as age at first exposure and time since last exposure. Finally, such a pattern of trends could emerge if there were only two stages and the first and penultimate stage were the same

Transaction-tax evasion in the housing market

We model the behaviour of a buyer trying to evade the real estate transfer tax. We identify over-appraisal as a key, easily-observable element that is inversely related with tax evasion. We conclude that the tax authority could focus auditing efforts on low appraisal transactions. We include ‘behavioural’ components (shame and stigma) allowing to introduce buyers' (education) and societal (social capital) characteristics that explain individual and idiosyncratic variations. Our empirical analysis confirms the predictions using a unique database, where we directly observe: real payment, value declared to the authority, appraisal, buyers' educational level and local levels of corruption and trust

Bladder cancer mortality of workers exposed to aromatic amines: an updated analysis.

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Bladder cancer mortality of workers exposed to aromatic amines : a 58-year follow-up

We previously investigated bladder cancer risk in a cohort of dyestuff workers who were heavily exposed to aromatic amines from 1922 through 1972. We updated the follow-up by 14 years (through 2003) for 590 exposed workers to include more than 30 years of follow-up since last exposure to aromatic amines. Expected numbers of deaths from bladder cancer and other causes were computed by use of national mortality rates from 1951 to 1980 and regional mortality rates subsequently. There were 394 deaths, compared with 262.7 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.36 to 1.66). Overall, 56 deaths from bladder cancer were observed, compared with 3.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 16.5, 95% confidence interval = 12.4 to 21.4). The standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer increased with younger age at first exposure and increasing duration of exposure. Although the standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer steadily decreased with time since exposure stopped, the absolute risk remained approximately constant at 3.5 deaths per 1000 man-years up to 29 years after exposure stopped. Excess risk was apparent 30 years or more after last exposure

First and subsequent asbestos exposures in relation to mesothelioma and lung cancer mortality

We analysed data from a cohort of 1966 subjects (889 men and 1077 women) employed by an Italian asbestos (mainly textile) company in the period 1946–1984, who were followed-up to 2004. A total of 62 025 person-years of observation were recorded. We computed standardised mortality ratios (SMR) for all causes and selected cancer sites using national death rates for each 5-year calendar period and age group. There were 68 deaths from mesothelioma (25 men and 43 women, 39 pleural and 29 peritoneal) vs 1.6 expected (SMR=4159), and 109 from lung cancer vs 35.1 expected (SMR=310). The SMRs of pleural/peritoneal cancer were 6661 for subjects exposed only before 30 years of age, 8019 for those first exposed before 30 and still employed at 30–39 years of age and 5786 for those first exposed before 30 and still employed at 40 or more years of age. The corresponding SMRs for lung cancer were 227, 446 and 562. The SMR of mesothelioma was strongly related to time since first exposure. The SMR of lung cancer, but not of mesothelioma, appeared to be related to subsequent exposures

Cancer mortality in a cohort of asbestos textile workers

A cohort of 889 men and 1077 women employed for at least 1 month between 1946 and 1984 by a former Italian leading asbestos (mainly textile) company, characterised by extremely heavy exposures often for short durations, was followed up to 1996, for a total of 53 024 person-years of observation. Employment data were obtained from factory personnel records, while vital status and causes of death were ascertained through municipality registers and local health units. We observed 222 cancer deaths compared with 116.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio, SMR=191). The highest ratios were found for pleural (SMR=4105), peritoneal (SMR=1817) and lung (SMR=282) cancers. We observed direct relationships with duration of employment for lung and peritoneal cancer, and with time since first employment for lung cancer and mesothelioma. Pleural cancer risk was independent from duration (SMR=3428 for employment <1 year, 7659 for 1–4 years, 2979 for 5–9 years and 2130 for ⩾10 years). Corresponding SMRs for lung cancer were 139, 251, 233 and 531. Nonsignificantly increased ratios were found for ovarian (SMR=261), laryngeal (SMR=238) and oro-pharyngeal (SMR=226) cancers. This study confirms and further quantifies the central role of latency in pleural mesothelioma and of cumulative exposure in lung cancer