Risk Premium and Central Bank Intervention

This study examines the relation between the risk premium and central bank intervention. Forward rates are calculated for the Turkish Lira-USD exchange market and then the effect of central bank intervention on the risk premium is estimated. Using high quality daily intervention data from the Central Bank of Turkey as well as implied forward rates, an MA (21)-GARCH (1,1) model is estimated. Both purchases and sales of US dollars by the Central Bank of Turkey appear to have no effect on the size of risk premium for TL/USD for the free float period. Similar results are found for the managed float period. Empirical support was weak for the theoretical model, with intervention having a significant effect on the risk premium.Central Bank Intervention, Risk Premium

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Non-Financial Firms in Turkey (Firma Ticari Borclari ve Kredi Aktarim Mekanizmasi: Turkiye Ornegi)

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large data set of corporate firms, which includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) in the period of 1996-2008. It suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. For both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) and firms with low export share are financially constrained especially in tight periods. Findings suggest that those firms, which are financially constrained, tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans in tight periods. On the other hand, the evidence for large and export-oriented firms differs significantly across manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors such that manufacturing firms are more likely to have access to bank finance in tight periods compared to non-manufacturing firms. Large trade credits volume in firms’ balance sheets and its response to monetary stance imply that trade credit channel may mute the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.Credit Channel, Trade Credits, Monetary Policy Transmission

Kuresel Firma Ticari Borclari ve Kredi Aktarim Mekanizmasi

Turkiye’de imalat sanayiinde yer alan firmalarin mali yapisi firma duzeyinde genis bir veri seti kullanilarak 1996-2008 donemi için incelenmistir. Turkiye’de ticari borclarin firma mali yapilarinin baslica unsurlarindan biri olmasi parasal aktarim mekanizmasi acisindan onemli sonuclar icermektedir. Bu baglamda, literaturde yer alan teorik ve ampirik calismalar cercevesinde finansal kosullardaki sikilasma ve gevseme donemleri dikkate alinarak politika faiz oraninin firma dis finansman (ozkaynak disindaki finansman) secenekleri uzerindeki etkisi farkli firma gruplari bazinda analiz edilmistir. Bulgular, incelenen donem itibariyla ticari borc ve banka kredileri arasinda bir ikame oldugunu ve ozellikle kucuk firmalarda soz konusu ikamenin daha da belirginlestigini gostermektedir. Ayrica, buyuk firmalardan farkli olarak, kucuk firmalarin ozellikle finansal kosullarin siki oldugu donemlerde bankacilik sisteminden yeteri derecede kaynak saglayamadiklarini ve daha fazla ticari borc kullanma egiliminde olduklarini yansitmaktadir. Bu durum, buyuk firmalarin finansal kosullarin siki oldugu donemlerde bankalarin ustlenmesi gereken aracilik gorevini kismen yuklenerek kucuk firmalara ticari borc saglamak yoluyla soz konusu firmalarin finansman ihtiyaclarinin karsilanmasina katkida bulunduklarini ve dolayisiyla finansal sikilasmanin reel sektor uzerindeki etkisini yumusatmasina imkan sagladigini ima etmektedir.

Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Exchange Rate Options: Evidence in Turkey (Kur Opsiyonlarindan Riske Duyarsiz Yogunluk Fonksiyonu Cikarimi: Turkiye Ornegi)

This paper uses over-the-counter currency options data to investigate market expectations on Turkish Lira-U.S. Dollar exchange rate. We extract option implied density functions to examine the evolution of market sentiment over the possible values of future exhange rates. Uncertainty is well measured by option-implied probabilities. Estimated densities for selected days point out an increase in uncertainty in foreign exchange market during financial turbulence periods. We make inferences about the effectiveness of policy measures and see how the market perception changed throughout the crisis. We uncover the effectiveness of policy measures by observing shrinking densities and confidence bands.Options, Risk neutral density, Market expectations

TCMB Faiz Kararlarinin Piyasa Faizleri Ve Hisse Senedi Piyasalari Uzerine Etkisi

Para politikasinin mali piyasalara etkisi parasal aktarim mekanizmasinin ilk adimidir. Politika faizinin varlik fiyatlari uzerine etkisi tahmin edilirken karsilasilan onemli sorunlardan biri politika faizleri ve varlik fiyatlari arasindaki eszamanli etkilesimdir. Bu calismada, para politikasinin Turkiye’deki hisse senedi fiyatlari ve piyasa faizleri uzerindeki etkisi, eszamanlilik sorununa etkili bir cozum olan Rigobon ve Sack (2004) tarafindan onerilen degisen oynakliga dayali genellestirilmis beklemler yontemi (GMM) ile tahmin edilmistir. Bulgular daha once de vaka calismasi ile elde edilen sonuclar ile uyumludur. Politika faizlerindeki artislar, hisse senedi fiyatlarini dusurmekte, daha uzun vadeli faizleri ise vadeye gore asamali olarak azalan bir olcude artirmaktadir.

Immunization status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A multicenter study from Turkey

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to detect the prevalence and the factors associated with influenza and pneumococcal vaccination and outcomes of vaccination during 2013–2014 season in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Turkey. METHODS: This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study performed in 53 different centers in Turkey. RESULTS: During the study period, 4968 patients were included. COPD was staged as GOLD 1-2-3-4 in 9.0%, 42.8%, 35.0%, and 13.2% of the patients, respectively. Influenza vaccination rate in the previous year was 37.9%; and pneumococcus vaccination rate, at least once during in a life time, was 13.3%. Patients with older age, higher level of education, more severe COPD, and comorbidities, ex-smokers, and patients residing in urban areas had higher rates of influenza vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age, higher education levels, presence of comorbidities, higher COPD stages, and exacerbation rates were associated with both influenza and pneumococcal vaccination. The number of annual physician/outpatient visits and hospitalizations due to COPD exacerbation was 2.73 ± 2.85 and 0.92 ± 1.58 per year, respectively. Patients with older age, lower education levels, more severe COPD, comorbid diseases, and lower body mass index and patients who are male and are residing in rural areas and vaccinated for influenza had significantly higher rates of COPD exacerbation. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in COPD patients were quite low, and the number of annual physician/outpatient visits and hospitalizations due to COPD exacerbation was high in Turkey. Advanced age, higher education levels, comorbidities, and higher COPD stages were associated with both influenza and pneumococcal vaccination

Evaluation of Attitudes and Knowledge of Influenza Diagnosis, Treatment and Vaccination Among Pediatric Residents

Objective: Influenza virus is common in children, especially in winter, causing hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, or even death. There are few studies on the attitudes or knowledge of influenza diagnosis, treatment, and vaccination among pediatricians. This study was planned to determine pediatric residents' attitudes and behaviors about recognizing the influenza virus, making treatment decisions, prophylaxis, and immunization

A Multi-Center Study on the Efficacy of Eltrombopag in Management of Refractory Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia: A Real-Life Experience

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of eltrombopag, an oral thrombopoietin receptor agonist, in patients with chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP)

A Multi-Center Study on the Efficacy of Eltrombopag in Management of Refractory Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia: A Real-Life Experience

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of eltrombopag, an oral thrombopoietin receptor agonist, in patients with chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). Materials and Methods: A total of 285 chronic ITP patients (187 women, 65.6 \%; 98 men, 34.4\%) followed in 55 centers were enrolled in this retrospective cohort. Response to treatment was assessed according to platelet count (/mm(3)) and defined as complete (platelet count of >100,000/mm(3)), partial (30,000-100,000/mm(3) or doubling of platelet count after treatment), or unresponsive (<30,000/mm(3)). Clinical findings, descriptive features, response to treatment, and side effects were recorded. Correlations between descriptive, clinical, and hematological parameters were analyzed. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 43.9 +/- 20.6 (range: 3-95) years and the duration of follow-up was 18.0 +/- 6.4 (range: 6-28.2) months. Overall response rate was 86.7\% (n=247). Complete and partial responses were observed in 182 (63.8\%) and 65 (22.8\%) patients, respectively. Thirty-eight patients (13.4\%) did not respond to eltrombopag treatment. For patients above 60 years old (n=68), overall response rate was 89.7\% (n=61), and for those above 80 years old (n=12), overall response rate was 83\% (n=10). Considering thrombocyte count before treatment, eltrombopag significantly increased platelet count at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 8th weeks of treatment. As the time required for partial or complete response increased, response to treatment was significantly reduced. The time to reach the maximum platelet levels after treatment was quite variable (1-202 weeks). Notably, the higher the maximum platelet count after eltrombopag treatment, the more likely that side effects would occur. The most common side effects were headache (21.6\%), weakness (13.7\%), hepatotoxicity (11.8\%), and thrombosis (5.9\%). Conclusion: Results of the current study imply that eltrombopag is an effective therapeutic option even in elderly patients with chronic ITP. However, patients must be closely monitored for response and side effects during treatment. Since both response and side effects may be variable throughout the follow-up period, patients should be evaluated dynamically, especially in terms of thrombotic risk factors