PENDEKATAN METODE BAYES UNTUK PENDUGAAN PENGARUH INTERAKSI PADA MODEL AMMI

Multi-locations trials play an important role in plant breeding and agronomic research. Study concerning genotype-environment interaction needed in selection of genotype to be released. AMMI (Additive Main effect and Multiplicative Interaction) is one of statistical technique to analyze data from multi-locations trials. The analysis of AMMI is a combining analysis between additive main effect and principal component analysis. Multi-location sampling data which were collected several years on several planting season used to be analyzed separately. To obtain more comprehensive information of multi-location sampling data, an analysis which combines all the information in several years is needed. One of the alternatives is the Bayesian approach. This method utilizes initial information on the estimated parameters and information from samples. The simulation states that prediction with Bayesian methods will produce a better estimator, because MSE of the Bayesian estimator is smaller the MSE estimator generated using least squares method. Keywords: AMMI, Baye

Partisipasi Masyarakat dalam Pembentukan Peraturan Daerah di Kaupaten Bengkalis Tahun 2014

This study entitled "Public Participation in Formation of Regional Regulation inBengkalis 2014." author's interest to do this research is that the author encounteredproblems that occur in Bengkalis, ie people who have never been involved eitherdirectly or indirectly in the process of lawmaking area. It is clearly not in accordancewith Article 96 of Law No. 12 of 2011 Concerning the Establishment RegulationLegislation, which states that "The public has the right to provide input orally and / orin writing referred to can be made through a public hearing, the working visit ,socialization and / or, seminar, workshops and / or discussion. "This study aims to determine the level of public participation in theestablishment of Regional Regulation in Bengkalis 2014, to determine the constraintsaffecting public participation in the establishment of local regulations in Bengkalis2014 and to identify efforts to be made so that these obstacles can be overcome so thatthe people of Bengkalis can be a participatory community. In order to achieve the goalsthat the authors wish, the author conducted research with sociological method, which isreviewing the existing situation in the field and then linked with the prevailinglegislation is done on location study using data collection tools ie by way of aninterview with the parties concerned , such as, Member of Provincial ParliamentBengkalis district, Bengkalis District Legal Secretariat and some societies in theBengkalis District. Meanwhile, judging from its nature, this research is descriptive, theresearch illustrates clearly and in detail and explain the realities in the field ofcommunity participation in the formation of local regulations in Bengkalis 2014.In this study the authors used data collection techniques such as interviews,questionnaires and literature study. Based on the problem formulation and discussionof the issues, the data analysis used by the author is by way of qualitative, that outlinesthe data generated in the form of a regular sentence, logically and effectively so as toprovide an explanation for the formulation of the author adopted. While the method ofthinking yangpenulis use in drawing conclusions is the deductive method. Deductivemethod is a way of thinking that draw a conclusion on matters of a general naturebecomes a declaration of a special nature. This can assist authors in conductingresearch on public participation in the establishment of local regulations in Bengkalis2014

Pika Maharani,Amrazi Zakso, F.Y.Khosmas Progam Studi Pendidikan Sosiologi,FKIP, UNTAN, Pontianak Email : [email protected]

The problem of research is type cooperation and condition deviate behavior of student at SMAN 9 Pontianak. The object of research to know about type of cooperation and condition deviate behavior of student. Method of research is descriptive. The aggregation of data is observation, interview and documentary studies, then the instrument of research is sheet observation, sheet interview, and documentation. The result of research of type cooperation is harmony, bargaining. Cooptation, and coalition. Then condition of deviate behavior is socialiszation, defferential association, anomie, and cap of deviation

Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital

Referential gestures are not ubiquitous in wild chimpanzees : alternative functions for exaggerated loud scratch gestures

Royal Zoological Society of Scotland for providing core funding for Budongo Conservation Field Station. This work was supported by the ERC grant awarded to KS (ERC_CoG 2016_724608).A fundamental aspect of human communication is our ability to refer to external objects and events through both words and gestures (such as pointing), yet the evolutionary origins of such signals remain obscure. Apes, living in their natural environments, rarely or never point, but it has been claimed that male chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii, from the Ngogo community, Uganda, habitually use exaggerated loud scratches (ELSs) to refer to specific body locations where they wish to be groomed (Pika & Mitani, 2006, Current Biology, 16(6), 191–192). This study suggested continuity between referential abilities in humans and our closest living relatives, making it an important finding to replicate in other populations. Hence here, we compared whether ELSs are used in a referential manner across four wild communities of eastern chimpanzees (Ngogo, Kanyawara, Sonso and Waibira). Our data show that scratchers were significantly more likely to receive grooming in the scratched location at Ngogo compared to the other three sites. At the latter sites this response occurred at low rates and signallers did not seem to pursue this goal. This suggests that ELSs do not function referentially at these sites, and the published findings from Ngogo were not replicated. Further exploration into alternative functions of ELSs in the Kanyawara community revealed that, in this community, this signal functions to initiate grooming bouts and to reengage partners during grooming pauses. Individuals who produced the signal to initiate grooming were likely to offer grooming. In contrast, during grooming bouts, groomers produced ELSs to request reciprocation of grooming from their partner. Our study demonstrates that chimpanzees do not ubiquitously use the ELS in a referential manner, but that they can use this gesture in a highly flexible fashion, with signal function depending on the intricate details of the social contexts in which they are produced.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Predictive Process Monitoring Methods: Which One Suits Me Best?

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques

Pointing to visible and invisible targets

We investigated how the visibility of targets influenced the type of point used to provide directions. In Study 1 we asked 605 passersby in three localities for directions to well-known local landmarks. When that landmark was in plain view behind the requester, most respondents pointed with their index fingers, and few respondents pointed more than once. In contrast, when the landmark was not in view, respondents pointed initially with their index fingers, but often elaborated with a whole-hand point. In Study 2, we covertly filmed the responses from 157 passersby we approached for directions, capturing both verbal and gestural responses. As in Study 1, few respondents produced more than one gesture when the target was in plain view and initial points were most likely to be index finger points. Thus, in a Western geographical context in which pointing with the index finger is the dominant form of pointing, a slight change in circumstances elicited a preference for pointing with the whole hand when it was the second or third manual gesture in a sequence

Gestural communication of the gorilla (Gorilla gorilla): repertoire, intentionality and possible origins

Social groups of gorillas were observed in three captive facilities and one African field site. Cases of potential gesture use, totalling 9,540, were filtered by strict criteria for intentionality, giving a corpus of 5,250 instances of intentional gesture use. This indicated a repertoire of 102 gesture types. Most repertoire differences between individuals and sites were explicable as a consequence of environmental affordances and sampling effects: overall gesture frequency was a good predictor of universality of occurrence. Only one gesture was idiosyncratic to a single individual, and was given only to humans. Indications of cultural learning were few, though not absent. Six gestures appeared to be traditions within single social groups, but overall concordance in repertoires was almost as high between as within social groups. No support was found for the ontogenetic ritualization hypothesis as the chief means of acquisition of gestures. Many gestures whose form ruled out such an origin, i.e. gestures derived from species-typical displays, were used as intentionally and almost as flexibly as gestures whose form was consistent with learning by ritualization. When using both classes of gesture, gorillas paid specific attention to the attentional state of their audience. Thus, it would be unwarranted to divide ape gestural repertoires into ‘innate, species-typical, inflexible reactions’ and ‘individually learned, intentional, flexible communication’. We conclude that gorilla gestural communication is based on a species-typical repertoire, like those of most other mammalian species but very much larger. Gorilla gestures are not, however, inflexible signals but are employed for intentional communication to specific individuals