Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing state, and model nucleation and background secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include amount, composition, size, and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (homogeneous, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from −0.02 to +0.06 W m−2 across all simulation/mixing-state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from −0.2 to +0.8 W m−2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) ranges from +0.01 to −0.02 W m−2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from −1.0 to −0.05 W m−2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions, and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution, and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol

A weighted reduced basis method for parabolic PDEs with random data

This work considers a weighted POD-greedy method to estimate statistical outputs parabolic PDE problems with parametrized random data. The key idea of weighted reduced basis methods is to weight the parameter-dependent error estimate according to a probability measure in the set-up of the reduced space. The error of stochastic finite element solutions is usually measured in a root mean square sense regarding their dependence on the stochastic input parameters. An orthogonal projection of a snapshot set onto a corresponding POD basis defines an optimum reduced approximation in terms of a Monte Carlo discretization of the root mean square error. The errors of a weighted POD-greedy Galerkin solution are compared against an orthogonal projection of the underlying snapshots onto a POD basis for a numerical example involving thermal conduction. In particular, it is assessed whether a weighted POD-greedy solutions is able to come significantly closer to the optimum than a non-weighted equivalent. Additionally, the performance of a weighted POD-greedy Galerkin solution is considered with respect to the mean absolute error of an adjoint-corrected functional of the reduced solution.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. Recent reconstructions of BVOC emissions have predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased, while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased; however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (Goddard Earth Observing System; TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) turned off and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of > 25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in the combined aerosol radiative effect (direct and indirect) of > 0.5 W m−2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields, and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates

Imaging of Repaired Rotator Cuff

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Human Side of Skills and Knowledge

YesThe goal of decent work is best expressed through the eyes of people. It is about your job and future prospects; about your working conditions; about balancing work and family life, putting your kids through school or getting them out of child labour. It is about gender equality, equal recognition, and enabling women to make choices and take control of their lives. It is about personal abilities to compete in the market place, keep up with new technological skills and remain healthy. It is about developing your entrepreneurial skills, about receiving a fair share of wealth that you have helped to create and not being discriminated against; it is about having a voice in your workplace and your community . . . . For everybody, decent work is about securing human dignity (ILO 2001:7 - 8 cited in Green 2006:19 - 20)

Dose–responses from multi-model inference for the non-cancer disease mortality of atomic bomb survivors

The non-cancer mortality data for cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and cardiovascular diseases from Report 13 on the atomic bomb survivors published by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation were analysed to investigate the dose–response for the influence of radiation on these detrimental health effects. Various parametric and categorical models (such as linear-no-threshold (LNT) and a number of threshold and step models) were analysed with a statistical selection protocol that rated the model description of the data. Instead of applying the usual approach of identifying one preferred model for each data set, a set of plausible models was applied, and a sub-set of non-nested models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. Subsequently, this sub-set of non-nested models was used to perform multi-model inference (MMI), an innovative method of mathematically combining different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. This procedure thereby produces more reliable risk estimates based on a more comprehensive appraisal of model uncertainties. For CVD, MMI yielded a weak dose–response (with a risk estimate of about one-third of the LNT model) below a step at 0.6 Gy and a stronger dose–response at higher doses. The calculated risk estimates are consistent with zero risk below this threshold-dose. For mortalities related to cardiovascular diseases, an LNT-type dose–response was found with risk estimates consistent with zero risk below 2.2 Gy based on 90% confidence intervals. The MMI approach described here resolves a dilemma in practical radiation protection when one is forced to select between models with profoundly different dose–responses for risk estimates

The Role of Individual Variables, Organizational Variables and Moral Intensity Dimensions in Libyan Management Accountants’ Ethical Decision Making

This study investigates the association of a broad set of variables with the ethical decision making of management accountants in Libya. Adopting a cross-sectional methodology, a questionnaire including four different ethical scenarios was used to gather data from 229 participants. For each scenario, ethical decision making was examined in terms of the recognition, judgment and intention stages of Rest’s model. A significant relationship was found between ethical recognition and ethical judgment and also between ethical judgment and ethical intention, but ethical recognition did not significantly predict ethical intention—thus providing support for Rest’s model. Organizational variables, age and educational level yielded few significant results. The lack of significance for codes of ethics might reflect their relative lack of development in Libya, in which case Libyan companies should pay attention to their content and how they are supported, especially in the light of the under-development of the accounting profession in Libya. Few significant results were also found for gender, but where they were found, males showed more ethical characteristics than females. This unusual result reinforces the dangers of gender stereotyping in business. Personal moral philosophy and moral intensity dimensions were generally found to be significant predictors of the three stages of ethical decision making studied. One implication of this is to give more attention to ethics in accounting education, making the connections between accounting practice and (in Libya) Islam. Overall, this study not only adds to the available empirical evidence on factors affecting ethical decision making, notably examining three stages of Rest’s model, but also offers rare insights into the ethical views of practising management accountants and provides a benchmark for future studies of ethical decision making in Muslim majority countries and other parts of the developing world

Childhood exposure to external ionising radiation and solid cancer risk

The increasing use of ionising radiation for diagnostic purposes has raised concern about potential iatrogenic damage, especially in children. In this review, we discuss some aspects of radiation-induced cancer in relation to age at exposure and measures that should be taken for limiting exposure in this sensitive population

Increased Sensitivity to Mirror Symmetry in Autism

Can autistic people see the forest for the trees? Ongoing uncertainty about the integrity and role of global processing in autism gives special importance to the question of how autistic individuals group local stimulus attributes into meaningful spatial patterns. We investigated visual grouping in autism by measuring sensitivity to mirror symmetry, a highly-salient perceptual image attribute preceding object recognition. Autistic and non-autistic individuals were asked to detect mirror symmetry oriented along vertical, oblique, and horizontal axes. Both groups performed best when the axis was vertical, but across all randomly-presented axis orientations, autistics were significantly more sensitive to symmetry than non-autistics. We suggest that under some circumstances, autistic individuals can take advantage of parallel access to local and global information. In other words, autistics may sometimes see the forest and the trees, and may therefore extract from noisy environments genuine regularities which elude non-autistic observers

Alternative-NHEJ Is a Mechanistically Distinct Pathway of Mammalian Chromosome Break Repair

Characterizing the functional overlap and mutagenic potential of different pathways of chromosomal double-strand break (DSB) repair is important to understand how mutations arise during cancer development and treatment. To this end, we have compared the role of individual factors in three different pathways of mammalian DSB repair: alternative-nonhomologous end joining (alt-NHEJ), single-strand annealing (SSA), and homology directed repair (HDR/GC). Considering early steps of repair, we found that the DSB end-processing factors KU and CtIP affect all three pathways similarly, in that repair is suppressed by KU and promoted by CtIP. In contrast, both KU and CtIP appear dispensable for the absolute level of total-NHEJ between two tandem I-SceI–induced DSBs. During later steps of repair, we find that while the annealing and processing factors RAD52 and ERCC1 are important to promote SSA, both HDR/GC and alt-NHEJ are significantly less dependent upon these factors. As well, while disruption of RAD51 causes a decrease in HDR/GC and an increase in SSA, inhibition of this factor did not affect alt-NHEJ. These results suggest that the regulation of DSB end-processing via KU/CtIP is a common step during alt-NHEJ, SSA, and HDR/GC. However, at later steps of repair, alt-NHEJ is a mechanistically distinct pathway of DSB repair, and thus may play a unique role in mutagenesis during cancer development and therapy