Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data-model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa

The effect of mode and context on survey results: analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2006 and the Boost Survey for London.

BACKGROUND: Health-related data at local level could be provided by supplementing national health surveys with local boosts. Self-completion surveys are less costly than interviews, enabling larger samples to be achieved for a given cost. However, even when the same questions are asked with the same wording, responses to survey questions may vary by mode of data collection. These measurement differences need to be investigated further. METHODS: The Health Survey for England in London ('Core') and a London Boost survey ('Boost') used identical sampling strategies but different modes of data collection. Some data were collected by face-to-face interview in the Core and by self-completion in the Boost; other data were collected by self-completion questionnaire in both, but the context differed. Results were compared by mode of data collection using two approaches. The first examined differences in results that remained after adjusting the samples for differences in response. The second compared results after using propensity score matching to reduce any differences in sample composition. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the two samples for prevalence of some variables including long-term illness, limiting long-term illness, current rates of smoking, whether participants drank alcohol, and how often they usually drank. However, there were a number of differences, some quite large, between some key measures including: general health, GHQ12 score, portions of fruit and vegetables consumed, levels of physical activity, and, to a lesser extent, smoking consumption, the number of alcohol units reported consumed on the heaviest day of drinking in the last week and perceived social support (among women only). CONCLUSION: Survey mode and context can both affect the responses given. The effect is largest for complex question modules but was also seen for identical self-completion questions. Some data collected by interview and self-completion can be safely combined

Filling the Middle Skills Gap: Increasing Silver-Level Career Readiness Certificate Attainment in Mississippi

The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of Smart Start Career Pathway as a method of supporting student success on the ACT WorkKeys assessment. Since the 1970s, the skills gap has been a national concern as workforce demand has outpaced supply. As a means of connecting individuals to the workforce, Mississippi adopted ACT WorkKeys and the National Career Ready Certificate (NCRC). As a result, programs such as Smart Start have been developed and deployed to support success in achievement in ACT WorkKeys and NCRC. This causal comparative study was conducted utilizing a convenience sample of 1,001 participants from a program located in central Mississippi. The participant level data consisted of existing ACT WorkKeys scores and NCRC credential attainment. The study investigated if differences exist in student performance on ACT WorkKeys when participating in Smart Start Career Pathway. Specifically, the relationship in performance on ACT WorkKeys when a participant completes the Smart Start Career Pathway career-ready curriculum. Additionally, the study assessed if there is any influence between gender and race. The study did not find significant difference in frequencies of participant bronze, silver, gold and platinum level scores from the ACT WorkKeys National Career Readiness Assessment for those who participated in the Smart Start training compared to those who did not participate in the Smart Start training or significance as it relates to the influence, if any, of gender and race status on overall test scores of ACT WorkKeys National Career Readiness Assessment for those who participated in the Smart Start training compared to those who did not participate in the Smart Start training

Explaining global surface aerosol number concentrations in terms of primary emissions and particle formation

We use observations of total particle number concentration at 36 worldwide sites and a global aerosol model to quantify the primary and secondary sources of particle number. We show that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed condensation nuclei (CN) (R2=0.51) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle at many sites (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the free troposphere is biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=−88%) unless a secondary source of particles is included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB=−25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental boundary layer (BL) are also biased low (NMB=−74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles is increased or an empirical BL particle formation mechanism based on sulfuric acid is used. We find that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites is better simulated by including a BL particle formation mechanism (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). Using sensitivity tests we derive optimum rate coefficients for this nucleation mechanism, which agree with values derived from detailed case studies at individual sites

Planning, implementation, and first results of the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4)

The Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4), was based in Costa Rica and Panama during July and August 2007. The NASA ER-2, DC-8, and WB-57F aircraft flew 26 science flights during TC4. The ER-2 employed 11 instruments as a remote sampling platform and satellite surrogate. The WB-57F used 25 instruments for in situ chemical and microphysical sampling in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The DC-8 used 25 instruments to sample boundary layer properties, as well as the radiation, chemistry, and microphysics of the TTL. TC4 also had numerous sonde launches, two ground-based radars, and a ground-based chemical and microphysical sampling site. The major goal of TC4 was to better understand the role that the TTL plays in the Earth's climate and atmospheric chemistry by combining in situ and remotely sensed data from the ground, balloons, and aircraft with data from NASA satellites. Significant progress was made in understanding the microphysical and radiative properties of anvils and thin cirrus. Numerous measurements were made of the humidity and chemistry of the tropical atmosphere from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere. Insight was also gained into convective transport between the ground and the TTL, and into transport mechanisms across the TTL. New methods were refined and extended to all the NASA aircraft for real-time location relative to meteorological features. The ability to change flight patterns in response to aircraft observations relayed to the ground allowed the three aircraft to target phenomena of interest in an efficient, well-coordinated manner

Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

The effect of survey method on survey participation: Analysis of data from the Health Survey for England 2006 and the Boost Survey for London

BACKGROUND: There is a need for local level health data for local government and health bodies, for health surveillance and planning and monitoring of policies and interventions. The Health Survey for England (HSE) is a nationally-representative survey of the English population living in private households, but sub-national analyses can be performed only at a regional level because of sample size. A boost of the HSE was commissioned to address the need for local level data in London but a different mode of data collection was used to maximise participant numbers for a given cost. This study examines the effects on survey and item response of the different survey modes. METHODS: Household and individual level data are collected in HSE primarily through interviews plus individual measures through a nurse visit. For the London Boost, brief household level data were collected through interviews and individual level data through a longer self-completion questionnaire left by the interviewer and collected later. Sampling and recruitment methods were identical, and both surveys were conducted by the same organisation. There was no nurse visit in the London Boost. Data were analysed to assess the effects of differential response rates, item non-response, and characteristics of respondents. RESULTS: Household response rates were higher in the 'Boost' (61%) than 'Core' (HSE participants in London) sample (58%), but the individual response rate was considerably higher in the Core (85%) than Boost (65%). There were few differences in participant characteristics between the Core and Boost samples, with the exception of ethnicity and educational qualifications. Item non-response was similar for both samples, except for educational level. Differences in ethnicity were corrected with non-response weights, but differences in educational qualifications persisted after non-response weights were applied. When item non-response was added to those reporting no qualification, participants' educational levels were similar in the two samples. CONCLUSION: Although household response rates were similar, individual response rates were lower using the London Boost method. This may be due to features of London that are particularly associated with lower response rates for the self-completion element of the Boost method, such as the multi-lingual population. Nevertheless, statistical adjustments can overcome most of the demographic differences for analysis. Care must be taken when designing self-completion questionnaires to minimise item non-response