Controlling Asylum Migration to the Enlarged EU

asylum, immigration, EU enlargement

Impact of wind and solar production on electricity prices: Quantile regression approach

This is is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of the Operational Research Society on 5 August 2019, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/01605682.2019.1634783.We study the impact of fuel prices, emission allowances, demand, past prices, wind and solar production on hourly day-ahead electricity prices in Germany over the period from January 2015 until June 2018. Working within a linear regression, ARX-EGARCH and quantile regression framework we compare how different pricing factors influence the mean and quantiles of the electricity prices. Contrary to the existing literature, we find that short-term price fluctuations on the fuel markets and emission allowances have little effect on the electricity prices. We also find that day-of-the-week as well as monthly effects have significant impact on the electricity prices in Germany and should not be ignored in model specifications. Three main factors are found to drive extreme prices: price persistence, expected demand and expected wind production. Our findings contribute to understanding of extreme price movements, which can be used in pricing models and hedging strategies.acceptedVersio

Modelling pyrolysis process for CFRP recycling in a closed-loop supply chain approach

Several pathways have been investigated to recycle Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP), that have been increasingly used in a wide range of applications such as automotive, aerospace and renewable energy. Pyrolysis is currently considered to be the only process that is available on an industrial scale. Yet to our knowledge, no study based on process systems engineering concepts has been performed in order to evaluate the environmental gain that can be obtained from the production of the very energy-intensive production of virgin carbon fibres. In this work, a pyrolysis recycling process of a capacity of 1500 tonnes/year has been modelled by using Aspen Hysys v8.6 simulation software to evaluate the avoided environmental impacts using a Life Cycle Assessment approach, and in particular, those related to Global Warming Potential (expressed in kg CO2 eq.). A functional unit based on the recycling of 1 kg of carbon fibre reinforced polymers has been considered. An economic evaluation has also been carried. The objective is to use these results in order to build the process echelon of the CFRP recycling supply chain based on reliable dat

Utility of patient-derived lymphoblastoid cell lines as an ex vivo capecitabine sensitivity prediction model for breast cancer patients.

Capecitabine is commonly used in treating breast cancer; however, therapeutic response varies among patients and there is no clinically validated model to predict individual outcomes. Here, we investigated whether drug sensitivity quantified in ex vivo patients' blood-derived cell lines can predict response to capecitabine in vivo. Lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) were established from a cohort of metastatic breast cancer patients (n = 53) who were prospectively monitored during treatment with single agent capecitabine at 2000 mg/m2/day. LCLs were treated with increasing concentrations of 5'-DFUR, a major capecitabine metabolite, to assess patients' ex vivo sensitivity to this drug. Subsequently, ex vivo phenotype was compared to observed patient disease response and drug induced-toxicities. We acquired an independent cohort of breast cancer cell lines and LCLs derived from the same donors from ATCC, compared their sensitivity to 5'-DFUR. As seen in the patient population, we observed large inter-individual variability in response to 5'-DFUR treatment in patient-derived LCLs. Patients whose LCLs were more sensitive to 5'-DFUR had a significantly longer median progression free survival (9-month vs 6-month, log rank p-value = 0.017). In addition, this significant positive correlation for 5'-DFUR sensitivity was replicated in an independent cohort of 8 breast cancer cell lines and LCLs derived from the same donor. Our data suggests that at least a portion of the individual sensitivity to capecitabine is shared between germline tissue and tumor tissue. It also supports the utility of patient-derived LCLs as a predictive model for capecitabine treatment efficacy in breast cancer patients

BAP1 dependent expression of long non-coding RNA NEAT-1 contributes to sensitivity to gemcitabine in cholangiocarcinoma

Expression of NEAT-1 in malignant cholangiocytes. (PDF 11 kb

Economic and environmental assessment of recovery and disposal pathways for CFRP waste management

The high cost and energy intensity of virgin carbon fibre manufacturing constitute a challenge to recover substantial value from carbon fibre reinforced polymers (CFRP). The objective of this study is to assess the environmental and financial viability of several waste management processes for CFRP. Life cycle costing and environmental assessment models are developed to quantify the financial and environmental impacts of waste treatment pathways comparing a panel of recycling techniques that are now available (grinding, pyrolysis, microwave and supercritical water) and that can be used to substitute different grades of both carbon and glass fibres by recycled carbon fibres at competitive prices compared to landfill and incineration. GWP assessment promotes recycling activities by recovery of carbon fibre due to the high avoided impacts from substitution of virgin fibre, thus highlighting the high interest of recycling over conventional production for environmental purpose. Fibre recovery rate and recycling capacity are pivotal to decrease the unit cost of recycled fibre as well as GWP impacts. The advantages and drawbacks of each technique are analysed through economic and environmental indicators, to better understand the network configuration for optimisation purpose of waste management pathway in a holistic viewpoint

Individual cognitive stimulation therapy for dementia : a clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial

Background Group cognitive stimulation therapy programmes can benefit cognition and quality of life for people with dementia. Evidence for home-based, carer-led cognitive stimulation interventions is limited. Objectives To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of carer-delivered individual cognitive stimulation therapy (iCST) for people with dementia and their family carers, compared with treatment as usual (TAU). Design A multicentre, single-blind, randomised controlled trial assessing clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Assessments were at baseline, 13 weeks and 26 weeks (primary end point). Setting Participants were recruited through Memory Clinics and Community Mental Health Teams for older people. Participants A total of 356 caregiving dyads were recruited and 273 completed the trial. Intervention iCST consisted of structured cognitive stimulation sessions for people with dementia, completed up to three times weekly over 25 weeks. Family carers were supported to deliver the sessions at home. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes for the person with dementia were cognition and quality of life. Secondary outcomes included behavioural and psychological symptoms, activities of daily living, depressive symptoms and relationship quality. The primary outcome for the family carers was mental/physical health (Short Form questionnaire-12 items). Health-related quality of life (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions), mood symptoms, resilience and relationship quality comprised the secondary outcomes. Costs were estimated from health and social care and societal perspectives. Results There were no differences in any of the primary outcomes for people with dementia between intervention and TAU [cognition: mean difference –0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) –2.00 to 0.90; p-value = 0.45; self-reported quality of life: mean difference –0.02, 95% CI –1.22 to 0.82; p-value = 0.97 at the 6-month follow-up]. iCST did not improve mental/physical health for carers. People with dementia in the iCST group experienced better relationship quality with their carer, but there was no evidence that iCST improved their activities of daily living, depression or behavioural and psychological symptoms. iCST seemed to improve health-related quality of life for carers but did not benefit carers’ resilience or their relationship quality with their relative. Carers conducting more sessions had fewer depressive symptoms. Qualitative data suggested that people with dementia and their carers experienced better communication owing to iCST. Adjusted mean costs were not significantly different between the groups. From the societal perspective, both health gains and cost savings were observed. Conclusions iCST did not improve cognition or quality of life for people with dementia, or carers’ physical and mental health. Costs of the intervention were offset by some reductions in social care and other services. Although there was some evidence of improvement in terms of the caregiving relationship and carers’ health-related quality of life, iCST does not appear to deliver clinical benefits for cognition and quality of life for people with dementia. Most people received fewer than the recommended number of iCST sessions. Further research is needed to ascertain the clinical effectiveness of carer-led cognitive stimulation interventions for people with dementia

A Bicriteria Optimisation Approach for Waste Management of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers Used in Aerospace Applications: Application to the Case Study of France

The increased use of carbon fibre reinforced polymers (CFRP) has raised the environmental concerns on waste disposal and consumption of non-renewable resources as well as economic awareness for the need to recycle CFRP wastes stemming from aircraft. This study develops an optimisation approach of CFRP waste management with the simultaneous objective of minimising cost and global warming potential impacts along the the entire network. Various CFRP waste types are involved with multiple available techniques of fibre/no-fibre recovery techniques. The scenarios that are investigated are based on the current situation in France. The large inventory of the existing sites concerning aerospace CFRP industry is carried out to predict the waste quantity that is likely to be generated in the future. The objective is to develop waste allocation strategies, which are both good for economic and environmental aspects. The results obtained show that the economic interest and the environmental effect are conflicting. Transportation turns out to be an important factor of waste management

Evaluation of different infant vaccination schedules incorporating pneumococcal vaccination (The Vietnam Pneumococcal Project): protocol of a randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: WHO recommends the use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) as a priority. However, there are many countries yet to introduce PCV, especially in Asia. This trial aims to evaluate different PCV schedules and to provide a head-to-head comparison of PCV10 and PCV13 in order to generate evidence to assist with decisions regarding PCV introduction. Schedules will be compared in relation to their immunogenicity and impact on nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This randomised, single-blind controlled trial involves 1200 infants recruited at 2 months of age to one of six infant PCV schedules: PCV10 in a 3+1, 3+0, 2+1 or two-dose schedule; PCV13 in a 2+1 schedule; and controls that receive two doses of PCV10 and 18 and 24 months. An additional control group of 200 children is recruited at 18 months that receive one dose of PCV10 at 24 months. All participants are followed up until 24 months of age. The primary outcome is the post-primary series immunogenicity, expressed as the proportions of participants with serotype-specific antibody levels ≥0.35 µg/mL for each serotype in PCV10. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Northern Territory Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research (EC00153) and the Vietnam Ministry of Health Ethics Committee. The results, interpretation and conclusions will be presented to parents and guardians, at national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed open access journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01953510; Pre-results

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A>T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations