De Bogie Man

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/5773/thumbnail.jp

The impact of superphosphate and surface-applied lime on the profitability and sustainability of wool production on the tablelands of NSW

Soil acidification is one of the major forms of soil degradation in higher rainfall areas of the tablelands of NSW. A grazing experiment was conducted near Sutton, NSW, to assess the effect of various rates of superphosphate, lime, sewage ash and stocking rates on wool production and sustainability between 1999 and 2008. The results from the discounted cash flow analysis show that the net present value of the treatment without lime, the lower rate of superphosphate and the lowest stocking rate returned the highest net present value of $266.30/ha. Raising the application of superphosphate from 125kg/ha every two to three years to 250kg/ha every year on un-limed and limed soil reduced the net present value by$278.70/ha and $249.30/ha, respectively. The addition of lime at the rate of 4t/ha on un-limed soil at the low superphosphate level reduced the net present value by about$234.60/ha. The net present value fell by $205.24/ha when the level of superphosphate rate increased to 250kg/ha every year. The net present value decreased as the level of stocking rate increased. We conclude that wool producers will be unlikely to use lime to ameliorate acid soil, even though production will not be sustainable, unless there are more favourable input and commodity prices in the market and government intervention.economic, acid soil, lime, superphosphate, sewage ash, stocking rate, policy,

Effect of 20 mph traffic speed zones on road injuries in London, 1986-2006: controlled interrupted time series analysis

Objective To quantify the effect of the introduction of 20 mph (32 km an hour) traffic speed zones on road collisions, injuries, and fatalities in London

The effect of reduced street lighting on road casualties and crime in England and Wales: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many local authorities in England and Wales have reduced street lighting at night to save money and reduce carbon emissions. There is no evidence to date on whether these reductions impact on public health. We quantified the effect of 4 street lighting adaptation strategies (switch off, part-night lighting, dimming and white light) on casualties and crime in England and Wales. METHODS: Observational study based on analysis of geographically coded police data on road traffic collisions and crime in 62 local authorities. Conditional Poisson models were used to analyse longitudinal changes in the counts of night-time collisions occurring on affected roads during 2000-2013, and crime within census Middle Super Output Areas during 2010-2013. Effect estimates were adjusted for regional temporal trends in casualties and crime. RESULTS: There was no evidence that any street lighting adaptation strategy was associated with a change in collisions at night. There was significant statistical heterogeneity in the effects on crime estimated at police force level. Overall, there was no evidence for an association between the aggregate count of crime and switch off (RR 0.11; 95% CI 0.01 to 2.75) or part-night lighting (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.06). There was weak evidence for a reduction in the aggregate count of crime and dimming (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.70 to 1.02) and white light (RR 0.89; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: This study found little evidence of harmful effects of switch off, part-night lighting, dimming, or changes to white light/LEDs on road collisions or crime in England and Wales

Improving the Network Scalability of Erlang

As the number of cores grows in commodity architectures so does the likelihood of failures. A distributed actor model potentially facilitates the development of reliable and scalable software on these architectures. Key components include lightweight processes which ‘share nothing’ and hence can fail independently. Erlang is not only increasingly widely used, but the underlying actor model has been a beacon for programming language design, influencing for example Scala, Clojure and Cloud Haskell. While the Erlang distributed actor model is inherently scalable, we demonstrate that it is limited by some pragmatic factors. We address two network scalability issues here: globally registered process names must be updated on every node (virtual machine) in the system, and any Erlang nodes that communicate maintain an active connection. That is, there is a fully connected O(n2) network of n nodes. We present the design, implementation, and initial evaluation of a conservative extension of Erlang — Scalable Distributed (SD) Erlang. SD Erlang partitions the global namespace and connection network using s_groups. An s_group is a set of nodes with its own process namespace and with a fully connected network within the s_group, but only individual connections outside it. As a node may belong to more than one s_group it is possible to construct arbitrary connection topologies like trees or rings. We present an operational semantics for the s_group functions, and outline the validation of conformance between the implementation and the semantics using the QuickCheck automatic testing tool. Our preliminary evaluation in comparison with distributed Erlang shows that SD Erlang dramatically improves network scalability even if the number of global operations is tiny (0.01%). Moreover, even in the absence of global operations the reduced connection maintenance overheads mean that SD Erlang scales better beyond 80 nodes (1920 cores)

Absence of street lighting may prevent vehicle crime, but spatial and temporal displacement remains a concern

Objectives This paper estimates the effect of changes in street lighting at night on levels of crime at street-level. Analyses investigate spatial and temporal displacement of crime into adjacent streets. Methods Offense data (burglaries, robberies, theft of and theft from vehicles, and violent crime) were obtained from Thames Valley Police, UK. Street lighting data (switching lights off at midnight, dimming, and white light) were obtained from local authorities. Monthly counts of crime at street-level were analyzed using a conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal and temporal variation. Two sets of models analyzed: (1) changes in night-time crimes adjusting for changes in day-time crimes and (2) changes in crimes at all times of the day. Results Switching lights off at midnight was strongly associated with a reduction in night-time theft from vehicles relative to daytime (rate ratio RR 0.56; 0.41–0.78). Adjusted for changes in daytime, night-time theft from vehicles increased (RR 1.55; 1.14–2.11) in adjacent roads where street lighting remained unchanged. Conclusion Theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets where street lighting was switched off at midnight but may have been displaced to better-lit adjacent streets. Relative to daytime, night-time theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets with dimming while theft from vehicles at all times of the day increased, thus suggesting temporal displacement. These findings suggest that the absence of street lighting may prevent theft from vehicles, but there is a danger of offenses being temporally or spatially displaced

Long-Term Trajectories of Human Civilization

Purpose This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Originality/value Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue

Risk of cancer associated with residential exposure to asbestos insulation: a whole-population cohort study

Background The health risks associated with living in houses insulated with asbestos are unknown. Loose-fill asbestos was used to insulate some houses in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We compared the incidence of mesothelioma and other cancers in residents of the ACT who did and did not live in these houses. Methods Our cohort study included all ACT residents identified using Medicare enrolment data. These data were linked to addresses of affected residential properties in the ACT to ascertain exposure. We followed up residents by linking data to the Australian Cancer Database and National Death Index. Outcomes were diagnosis of mesothelioma and selected other cancers. Effects were estimated for males and females separately using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), adjusting for age and calendar time of diagnosis. Findings Between Nov 1, 1983, and Dec 31, 2013, 1 035 578 ACT residents were identified from the Medicare database. Of these, 17 248 (2%) had lived in an affected property, including seven (2%) of 285 people diagnosed with mesothelioma. The adjusted incidence of mesothelioma in males who had lived at an affected property was 2·5 times that of unexposed males (SIR 2·54, 95% CI 1·02–5·24). No mesotheliomas were reported among females who had lived at an affected property. Among individuals who had lived at an affected property, there was an elevated incidence of colorectal cancer in women (SIR 1·73, 95% CI 1·29–2·26) and prostate cancer in men (1·29, 1·07–1·54); colorectal cancer was increased, although not significantly, in males (SIR 1·32, 95% CI 0·99–1·72), with no significant increase in the other cancers studied. Interpretation Residential asbestos insulation is likely to be unsafe. Our findings have important health, social, financial, and legal implications for governments and communities in which asbestos has been used to insulate houses.This work was funded by the ACT Government