Reducing uncertainty in high-resolution sea ice models.

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations

Development, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification of high-fidelity arctic sea ice models.

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution

A conservative, optimization-based semi-lagrangian spectral element method for passive tracer transport

We present a new optimization-based, conservative, and quasi-monotone method for passive tracer transport. The scheme combines high-order spectral element discretization in space with semi-Lagrangian time stepping. Solution of a singly linearly constrained quadratic program with simple bounds enforces conservation and physically motivated solution bounds. The scheme can handle efficiently a large number of passive tracers because the semi-Lagrangian time stepping only needs to evolve the grid points where the primitive variables are stored and allows for larger time steps than a conventional explicit spectral element method. Numerical examples show that the use of optimization to enforce physical properties does not affect significantly the spectral accuracy for smooth solutions. Performance studies reveal the benefits of high-order approximations, including for discontinuous solutions

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Technical Overview

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project (SDSS-RM) is a dedicated multi-object RM experiment that has spectroscopically monitored a sample of 849 broad-line quasars in a single 7 deg$^2$ field with the SDSS-III BOSS spectrograph. The RM quasar sample is flux-limited to i_psf=21.7 mag, and covers a redshift range of 0.1<z<4.5. Optical spectroscopy was performed during 2014 Jan-Jul dark/grey time, with an average cadence of ~4 days, totaling more than 30 epochs. Supporting photometric monitoring in the g and i bands was conducted at multiple facilities including the CFHT and the Steward Observatory Bok telescopes in 2014, with a cadence of ~2 days and covering all lunar phases. The RM field (RA, DEC=14:14:49.00, +53:05:00.0) lies within the CFHT-LS W3 field, and coincides with the Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) Medium Deep Field MD07, with three prior years of multi-band PS1 light curves. The SDSS-RM 6-month baseline program aims to detect time lags between the quasar continuum and broad line region (BLR) variability on timescales of up to several months (in the observed frame) for ~10% of the sample, and to anchor the time baseline for continued monitoring in the future to detect lags on longer timescales and at higher redshift. SDSS-RM is the first major program to systematically explore the potential of RM for broad-line quasars at z>0.3, and will investigate the prospects of RM with all major broad lines covered in optical spectroscopy. SDSS-RM will provide guidance on future multi-object RM campaigns on larger scales, and is aiming to deliver more than tens of BLR lag detections for a homogeneous sample of quasars. We describe the motivation, design and implementation of this program, and outline the science impact expected from the resulting data for RM and general quasar science.Comment: 25 pages, submitted to ApJS; project website at http://www.sdssrm.or

Associations between cytokines, endocrine stress response, and gastrointestinal symptoms in autism spectrum disorder

PosterAutism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by impairments in social communication and abnormal repetitive behavior patterns. Recent studies have shown a strong association between ASD and gastrointestinal (GI) symptomatology. Some individuals with ASD show altered reactivity to stress, as well as altered immune markers, particularly stress responsive cytokines including TNF-alpha and IL-6. To assess potential relationships between GI symptoms and stress response, we examined whether GI symptoms are associated with increases in stress-associated endocrine markers and cytokines in ASD. We also conducted exploratory analyses the examine the relationship between IL-6, TNF-alpha, cortisol, and intelligence, as well as the effects of the presence or absence of co-occurring medical conditions on the relationship between IL-6, TNF-alpha, cortisol, and GI symptoms. Given the aforementioned findings, we expected to find positive relationships between GI symptoms and biomarkers of stress, including cortisol levels, IL-6, and TNF-alpha

Measuring Black Hole Spin using X-ray Reflection Spectroscopy

I review the current status of X-ray reflection (a.k.a. broad iron line) based black hole spin measurements. This is a powerful technique that allows us to measure robust black hole spins across the mass range, from the stellar-mass black holes in X-ray binaries to the supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei. After describing the basic assumptions of this approach, I lay out the detailed methodology focusing on "best practices" that have been found necessary to obtain robust results. Reflecting my own biases, this review is slanted towards a discussion of supermassive black hole (SMBH) spin in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Pulling together all of the available XMM-Newton and Suzaku results from the literature that satisfy objective quality control criteria, it is clear that a large fraction of SMBHs are rapidly-spinning, although there are tentative hints of a more slowly spinning population at high (M>5*10^7Msun) and low (M<2*10^6Msun) mass. I also engage in a brief review of the spins of stellar-mass black holes in X-ray binaries. In general, reflection-based and continuum-fitting based spin measures are in agreement, although there remain two objects (GROJ1655-40 and 4U1543-475) for which that is not true. I end this review by discussing the exciting frontier of relativistic reverberation, particularly the discovery of broad iron line reverberation in XMM-Newton data for the Seyfert galaxies NGC4151, NGC7314 and MCG-5-23-16. As well as confirming the basic paradigm of relativistic disk reflection, this detection of reverberation demonstrates that future large-area X-ray observatories such as LOFT will make tremendous progress in studies of strong gravity using relativistic reverberation in AGN.Comment: 19 pages. To appear in proceedings of the ISSI-Bern workshop on "The Physics of Accretion onto Black Holes" (8-12 Oct 2012). Revised version adds a missing source to Table 1 and Fig.6 (IRAS13224-3809) and corrects the referencing of the discovery of soft lags in 1H0707-495 (which were in fact first reported in Fabian et al. 2009

Construction and analysis of tag single nucleotide polymorphism maps for six human-mouse orthologous candidate genes in type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: One strategy to help identify susceptibility genes for complex, multifactorial diseases is to map disease loci in a representative animal model of the disorder. The nonobese diabetic (NOD) mouse is a model for human type 1 diabetes. Linkage and congenic strain analyses have identified several NOD mouse Idd (insulin dependent diabetes) loci, which have been mapped to small chromosome intervals, for which the orthologous regions in the human genome can be identified. Here, we have conducted re-sequencing and association analysis of six orthologous genes identified in NOD Idd loci: NRAMP1/SLC11A1 (orthologous to Nramp1/Slc11a1 in Idd5.2), FRAP1 (orthologous to Frap1 in Idd9.2), 4-1BB/CD137/TNFRSF9 (orthologous to 4-1bb/Cd137/Tnrfrsf9 in Idd9.3), CD101/IGSF2 (orthologous to Cd101/Igsf2 in Idd10), B2M (orthologous to B2m in Idd13) and VAV3 (orthologous to Vav3 in Idd18). RESULTS: Re-sequencing of a total of 110 kb of DNA from 32 or 96 type 1 diabetes cases yielded 220 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Sixty-five SNPs, including 54 informative tag SNPs, and a microsatellite were selected and genotyped in up to 1,632 type 1 diabetes families and 1,709 cases and 1,829 controls. CONCLUSION: None of the candidate regions showed evidence of association with type 1 diabetes (P values > 0.2), indicating that common variation in these key candidate genes does not play a major role in type 1 diabetes susceptibility in the European ancestry populations studied.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. XII. Broad-line Region Modeling of NGC 5548

We present geometric and dynamical modeling of the broad line region (BLR) for the multi-wavelength reverberation mapping campaign focused on NGC 5548 in 2014. The data set includes photometric and spectroscopic monitoring in the optical and ultraviolet, covering the Hβ, C iv, and Ly broad emission lines. We find an extended disk-like Hβ BLR with a mixture of near-circular and outflowing gas trajectories, while the C iv and Ly BLRs are much less extended and resemble shell-like structures. There is clear radial structure in the BLR, with C iv and Ly emission arising at smaller radii than the Hβ emission. Using the three lines, we make three independent black hole mass measurements, all of which are consistent. Combining these results gives a joint inference of . We examine the effect of using the V band instead of the UV continuum light curve on the results and find a size difference that is consistent with the measured UV-optical time lag, but the other structural and kinematic parameters remain unchanged, suggesting that the V band is a suitable proxy for the ionizing continuum when exploring the BLR structure and kinematics. Finally, we compare the Hβ results to similar models of data obtained in 2008 when the active galactic nucleus was at a lower luminosity state. We find that the size of the emitting region increased during this time period, but the geometry and black hole mass remained unchanged, which confirms that the BLR kinematics suitably gauge the gravitational field of the central black hole

The Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project: Initial C IV lag results from four years of data

K.H. acknowledges support from STFC grant ST/M001296/1.We present reverberation-mapping (RM) lags and black hole mass measurements using the C iv λ1549 broad emission line from a sample of 348 quasars monitored as a part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey RM Project. Our data span four years of spectroscopic and photometric monitoring for a total baseline of 1300 days, allowing us to measure lags up to ~750 days in the observed frame (this corresponds to a rest-frame lag of ~300 days in a quasar at z = 1.5 and ~190 days at z = 3). We report significant time delays between the continuum and the C iv λ1549 emission line in 48 quasars, with an estimated false-positive detection rate of 10%. Our analysis of marginal lag measurements indicates that there are on the order of ~100 additional lags that should be recoverable by adding more years of data from the program. We use our measurements to calculate black hole masses and fit an updated C iv radius–luminosity relationship. Our results significantly increase the sample of quasars with C iv RM results, with the quasars spanning two orders of magnitude in luminosity toward the high-luminosity end of the C iv radius–luminosity relation. In addition, these quasars are located at some of the highest redshifts (z ≈ 1.4–2.8) of quasars with black hole masses measured with RM. This work constitutes the first large sample of C iv RM measurements in more than a dozen quasars, demonstrating the utility of multiobject RM campaigns.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe