Economic analysis of World Bank education projects and project outcomes

Research reported in this paper tests the hypothesis that Bank education projects for which the project appraisal documents are judged"good"have a higher probability of leading to successful outcomes than projects for which the appraisals are judged"poor."The research draws on project document evaluations carried out between 1993 and 1998. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic analysis of projects is a tool for weeding out potentially poor investments and selecting potentially worthwhile ones. The economic analysis can be used to select among alternative projects or to redesign project components so that they yield more and produce better outcomes. Good practice education projects require good economic analysis--analysis of demand, of the counterfactual private sector supply, of the project's fiscal impact, of lending fungibility--and strong sector work before project design.Curriculum&Instruction,Urban Services to the Poor,Poverty Assessment,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Economics&Finance

A tutorial on group effective connectivity analysis, part 2: second level analysis with PEB

This tutorial provides a worked example of using Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) and Parametric Empirical Bayes (PEB) to characterise inter-subject variability in neural circuitry (effective connectivity). This involves specifying a hierarchical model with two or more levels. At the first level, state space models (DCMs) are used to infer the effective connectivity that best explains a subject's neuroimaging timeseries (e.g. fMRI, MEG, EEG). Subject-specific connectivity parameters are then taken to the group level, where they are modelled using a General Linear Model (GLM) that partitions between-subject variability into designed effects and additive random effects. The ensuing (Bayesian) hierarchical model conveys both the estimated connection strengths and their uncertainty (i.e., posterior covariance) from the subject to the group level; enabling hypotheses to be tested about the commonalities and differences across subjects. This approach can also finesse parameter estimation at the subject level, by using the group-level parameters as empirical priors. We walk through this approach in detail, using data from a published fMRI experiment that characterised individual differences in hemispheric lateralization in a semantic processing task. The preliminary subject specific DCM analysis is covered in detail in a companion paper. This tutorial is accompanied by the example dataset and step-by-step instructions to reproduce the analyses

New data and the hard pomeron

New structure-function data are in excellent agreement with the existence of a hard pomeron, with intercept about 1.4. It gives a very economical description of the data. Having fixed 2 parameters from the data for the real-photon cross section $\sigma^{\gamma p}$, we need just 5 further parameters to fit the data for $F_2(x,Q^2)$ with $x\leq 0.001$. The available data range from $Q^2=0.045$ to 35 GeV$^2$. With guesses consistent with dimensional counting for the $x$ dependences of our three separate terms, the fit extends well to larger $x$ and to $Q^2=5000$ GeV$^2$. With no additional parameters, it gives a good description of data for the charm structure function $F_2^c(x,Q^2)$ from $Q^2=0$ to 130 GeV$^2$. The two pomerons also give a good description of both the $W$ and the $t$ dependence of $\gamma p\to J/\psi p$.Comment: 11 pages, plain tex, with 10 figures embedded using epsf. (Spurious figure removed.

Individual correlates of podoconiosis in areas of varying endemicity: a case-control study

BACKGROUND Podoconiosis is a non-filarial form of elephantiasis resulting in lymphedema of the lower legs. Previous studies have suggested that podoconiosis arises from the interplay of individual and environmental factors. Here, our aim was to understand the individual-level correlates of podoconiosis by comparing 460 podoconiosis-affected individuals and 707 unaffected controls. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS This was a case-control study carried out in six kebeles (the lowest governmental administrative unit) in northern Ethiopia. Each kebele was classified into one of three endemicity levels: 'low' (prevalence 5%). A total of 142 (30.7%) households had two or more cases of podoconiosis. Compared to controls, the majority of the cases, especially women, were less educated (OR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.3 to 2.2), were unmarried (OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 2.6-4.6) and had lower income (t = -4.4, p<0.0001). On average, cases started wearing shoes ten years later than controls. Among cases, age of first wearing shoes was positively correlated with age of onset of podoconiosis (r = 0.6, t = 12.5, p<0.0001). Among all study participants average duration of shoe wearing was less than 30 years. Between both cases and controls, people in 'high' and 'medium' endemicity kebeles were less likely than people in 'low' endemicity areas to 'ever' have owned shoes (OR = 0.5, 95% CI = 0.4-0.7). CONCLUSIONS Late use of shoes, usually after the onset of podoconiosis, and inequalities in education, income and marriage were found among cases, particularly among females. There were clustering of cases within households, thus interventions against podoconiosis will benefit from household-targeted case tracing. Most importantly, we identified a secular increase in shoe-wearing over recent years, which may give opportunities to promote shoe-wearing without increasing stigma among those at high risk of podoconiosis

Metal-assisted reactions. Part 25. Heterogeneous and homogeneous catalytic transfer hydrogenolysis of allyloxytetrazoles to yield alkenes or alkanes

Transfer hydrogenolysis of 5-allyloxy- 1-phenyltetrazoles using either a heterogeneous or a homogeneous palladium catalyst and a hydrogen donor leads to cleavage of the allyloxy C-O bond to yield an alkane or an alkene and 1-phenyltetrazolone, depending on the catalyst used

Predators Are Attracted to the Olfactory Signals of Prey

Background: Predator attraction to prey social signals can force prey to trade-off the social imperatives to communicate against the profound effect of predation on their future fitness. These tradeoffs underlie theories on the design and evolution of conspecific signalling systems and have received much attention in visual and acoustic signalling modes. Yet while most territorial mammals communicate using olfactory signals and olfactory hunting is widespread in predators, evidence for the attraction of predators to prey olfactory signals under field conditions is lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings: To redress this fundamental issue, we examined the attraction of free-roaming predators to discrete patches of scents collected from groups of two and six adult, male house mice, Mus domesticus, which primarily communicate through olfaction. Olfactorily-hunting predators were rapidly attracted to mouse scent signals, visiting mouse scented locations sooner, and in greater number, than control locations. There were no effects of signal concentration on predator attraction to their prey’s signals. Conclusions/Significance: This implies that communication will be costly if conspecific receivers and eavesdropping predators are simultaneously attracted to a signal. Significantly, our results also suggest that receivers may be at greater risk of predation when communicating than signallers, as receivers must visit risky patches of scent to perform their half of th

Does repetitive task training improve functional activity after stroke? A Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis.

Repetitive task training resulted in modest improvement across a range of lower limb outcome measures, but not upper limb outcome measures. Training may be sufficient to have a small impact on activities of daily living. Interventions involving elements of repetition and task training are diverse and difficult to classify: the results presented are specific to trials where both elements are clearly present in the intervention, without major confounding by other potential mechanisms of action

Variation and Uncertainty in Evaporation from a Subtropical Estuary: Florida Bay

Variation and uncertainty in estimated evaporation was determined over time and between two locations in Florida Bay, a subtropical estuary. Meteorological data were collected from September 2001 to August 2002 at Rabbit Key and Butternut Key within the Bay. Evaporation was estimated using both vapor flux and energy budget methods. The results were placed into a long-term context using 33 years of temperature and rainfall data collected in south Florida. Evaporation also was estimated from this long-term data using an empirical formula relating evaporation to clear sky solar radiation and air temperature. Evaporation estimates for the 12-mo period ranged from 144 to 175 cm yr21, depending on location and method, with an average of 163 cm yr21 (6 9%). Monthly values ranged from 9.2 to 18.5 cm, with the highest value observed in May, corresponding with the maximum in measured net radiation. Uncertainty estimates derived from measurement errors in the data were as much as 10%, and were large enough to obscure differences in evaporation between the two sites. Differences among all estimates for any month indicate the overall uncertainty in monthly evaporation, and ranged from 9% to 26%. Over a 33-yr period (1970–2002), estimated annual evaporation from Florida Bay ranged from 148 to 181 cm yr21, with an average of 166 cm yr21. Rainfall was consistently lower in Florida Bay than evaporation, with a long-term average of 106 cm yr21. Rainfall considered alone was uncorrelated with evaporation at both monthly and annual time scales; when the seasonal variation in clear sky radiation was also taken into account both net radiation and evaporation were significantly suppressed in months with high rainfall

Effect of two different participant information sheets on recruitment to a falls trial:an embedded randomised recruitment trial

Background/Aims: Recruitment to trials of intervention for older people who fall is challenging. Evidence suggests that the word falls has negative connotations for older people, and this may present a barrier to engaging with trials in this area. We therefore tested whether a participant information sheet that minimised reference to falls could improve recruitment rates. Methods: We conducted a study within a trial, embedded within a randomised controlled trial of vitamin K versus placebo to improve postural sway in patients aged 65 and over with a history of falls. Potential participants were identified from primary care lists in 14 practices and were randomised to receive either a standard participant information sheet or an information sheet minimising use of the word falls, instead focussing on maintenance of health, fitness and balance. The primary outcome for this embedded trial was the proportion of responses expressing interest in participating received in each arm. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of those contacted attending a screening visit, consenting at screening, and the proportion contacted who were randomised into the main trial. Results: In all, 4145 invitations were sent, with an overall response rate of 444 (10.7%). In all, 2148 individuals received the new information sheet (minimising reference to falls); 1997 received the standard information sheet. There was no statistically significant difference in response rate between those individuals sent the new information sheet and those sent the standard information sheet (10.1% vs 11.4%; difference 1.3% (95% confidence interval -0.6% to 3.2%); p = 0.19). Similarly, we found no statistically significant difference between the percentage of those who attended and consented at screening in the two groups (2.1% vs 2.7%; difference 0.6% (95% confidence interval: -0.4% to 1.6%); p = 0.20), and no statistically significant difference between the percentage randomised in the two groups (2.0% vs 2.6%; difference 0.6% (95% confidence interval -0.4% to 1.6%); p = 0.20). Conclusions: Use of a participant information sheet minimising reference to falls did not lead to a greater response rate in this trial targeting older people with a history of falls.</p