Long-term change in calcareous grassland vegetation and drivers over three time periods between 1970 and 2016

Analysis of long-term vegetation change is limited. Furthermore most studies evaluating change only examine two snapshots in time, which makes it difficult to define rates of change and accurately assess potential drivers. To assess long-term change in calcareous grassland over multiple time periods, we re-surveyed a transect study undertaken at Parsonage Down National Nature Reserve, Wiltshire, southern England in 1970 and 1990 by T. Wells. We examined differences in soil properties and species traits in each of the survey years to understand potential drivers of vegetation change, including nitrogen deposition and grazing management. There was a clear shift in species composition, combined with significant declines in species richness and diversity between 1970 and 2016, with the greater rate of change occurring between 1990 and 2016. A significant increase in soil total nitrogen was found, which was significantly associated with the decline in species diversity between 1970 and 1990. Significant changes in community-weighted mean traits were identified for plant height (increasing), specific leaf area (decreasing), grazing tolerance (decreasing) and Ellenberg N (decreasing) between 1970 and 2016. By using survey data from multiple time periods, we suggest that N deposition may have contributed towards community changes between 1970 and 1990, as indicated by the change in soil properties and the associated decline in species diversity. Vegetation change between 1990 and 2016 is likely to be largely attributable to a decline in grazing pressure, indicated by the increase in taller species and a decrease in grazing tolerance

Introduced plants as novel Anthropocene habitats for insects

Major environmental changes in the history of life on Earth have given rise to novel habitats, which gradually accumulate species. Human‐induced change is no exception, yet the rules governing species accumulation in anthropogenic habitats are not fully developed. Here we propose that nonnative plants introduced to Great Britain may function as analogues of novel anthropogenic habitats for insects and mites, analysing a combination of local‐scale experimental plot data and geographic‐scale data contained within the Great Britain Database of Insects and their Food Plants. We find that novel plant habitats accumulate the greatest diversity of insect taxa when they are widespread and show some resemblance to plant habitats which have been present historically (based on the relatedness between native and nonnative plant species), with insect generalists colonizing from a wider range of sources. Despite reduced per‐plant diversity, nonnative plants can support distinctive insect communities, sometimes including insect taxa that are otherwise rare or absent. Thus, novel plant habitats may contribute to, and potentially maintain, broader‐scale (assemblage) diversity in regions that contain mixtures of long‐standing and novel plant habitats

Annual estimates of occupancy for bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970–2015

Here, we determine annual estimates of occupancy and species trends for 5,293 UK bryophytes, lichens, and invertebrates, providing national scale information on UK biodiversity change for 31 taxonomic groups for the time period 1970 to 2015. The dataset was produced through the application of a Bayesian occupancy modelling framework to species occurrence records supplied by 29 national recording schemes or societies (n = 24,118,549 records). In the UK, annual measures of species status from fine scale data (e.g. 1 × 1 km) had previously been limited to a few taxa for which structured monitoring data are available, mainly birds, butterflies, bats and a subset of moth species. By using an occupancy modelling framework designed for use with relatively low recording intensity data, we have been able to estimate species trends and generate annual estimates of occupancy for taxa where annual trend estimates and status were previously limited or unknown at this scale. These data broaden our knowledge of UK biodiversity and can be used to investigate variation in and drivers of biodiversity change

The Biological Records Centre: a pioneer of citizen science

People have been recording wildlife for centuries and the resulting datasets lead to important scientific research. The Biological Records Centre (BRC), established in 1964, is a national focus for terrestrial and freshwater species recording in the United Kingdom (UK). BRC works with the voluntary recording community (i.e. a mutualistic symbiosis) through support of national recording schemes (i.e. ‘citizen science’, but unlike most citizen science it is volunteer led) and adds value to the data through analysis and reporting. Biological recording represents a diverse range of activities, involving an estimated 70 000 people annually in the UK, from expert volunteers undertaking systematic monitoring to mass participation recording. It is an invaluable monitoring tool because the datasets are long term, have large geographic extent and are taxonomically diverse (85 taxonomic groups). It supports a diverse range of outputs, e.g. atlases showing national distributions (12 127 species from over 40 taxonomic groups) and quantified trends (1636 species). BRC pioneers the use of technology for data capture (online portals and smartphone apps) and verification (including automated verification) through customisable, inter-operable database systems to facilitate efficient data flow. We are confident that biological recording has a bright future with benefits for people, science, and nature

Simulation of the hydrological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain

Thirty UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) scenarios are simulated using a MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model of a restored floodplain in eastern England. Annual precipitation exhibits uncertainty in direction of change. Extreme changes (10 and 90% probability) range between −27 and +30%. The central probability projects small declines ( < −4%). Wetter winters and drier summers predominate. Potential evapotranspiration increases for most scenarios (annual range of change: −41 to +2%). Declines in mean discharge predominate (range: −41 to +25%). Reductions of 11–17% are projected for the central probability. High and low flows, and the frequency of bankfull discharge exceedence reduce in most cases. Duration of winter high floodplain water tables declines. Summer water tables are on average at least 0.11 and 0.18 m lower for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Flood extent declines in most scenarios. Drier conditions will likely induce ecological responses including impacts on floodplain vegetation

Long-term changes in lowland calcareous grassland plots using Tephroseris integrifolia subsp. integrifolia as an indicator species

We investigated the changes to calcareous grassland plots within protected sites, and whether Tephroseris integrifolia subsp. integrifolia can act as a useful indicator species for re-visitation studies within vegetation predicted to remain relatively stable. Twenty-two plots located across lowland England and all formerly containing T. integrifolia were re-surveyed following the methodology used in the original survey undertaken in the 1960s. Pseudo-turnover and between-observer bias were minimised by sampling replicate quadrats at each fixed plot using a single surveyor and at a similar time of year as the original survey. Qualitative details concerning grazing management were obtained for all sites. In contrast to other long-term re-visitation studies, all our study plots were intact and retained diverse, herb-rich vegetation, demonstrating the value of site protection. However, there were clear shifts in vegetation composition, most notably where T. integrifolia was absent, as shown by an increase in Ellenberg fertility and moisture signifying nutrient enrichment, and a decrease in the cover of low-growing, light-demanding specialists, with a change likely to be associated predominantly with grazing management. Whereas in the mid-20th century the greatest threat to calcareous grassland was habitat loss, undergrazing or temporary neglect now appears to pose the principal threat. Distinctive species such as T. integrifolia with marked sensitivity to habitat change provide a potentially useful tool for rapid assessment and monitoring of site quality. Focusing monitoring on such species allows non-expert observers to recognise the early stages of habitat degradation, providing, in effect, a “health check” on individual sites and groups of sites

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity and human health on a Mediterranean island

© 2019, The Author(s). Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the major drivers of change that can negatively affect biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services and human health; islands are particularly vulnerable to biological invasions. Horizon scanning can lead to prioritisation of IAS to inform decision-making and action; its scale and scope can vary depending on the need. We focussed on IAS likely to arrive, establish and affect biodiversity and human health on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The scope of the horizon scanning was the entire island of Cyprus. We used a two-step consensus-building process in which experts reviewed and scored lists of alien species on their likelihood of arrival, establishment and potential to affect biodiversity, ecosystems and/or human health in the next 10 years. We reviewed 225 alien species, considered to be currently absent on Cyprus, across taxa and environments. We agreed upon 100 species that constituted very high, high or medium biodiversity risk, often arriving through multiple pathways of introduction. The remaining 125 species were ranked as low risk. The potential impacts on human health were documented for all 225 species; 82 species were considered to have a potentially negative impact on human health ranging from nuisance to disease transmission. The scope of the horizon scanning was the entire island of Cyprus, but the thematic groups also considered the relevance of the top 100 species to the Sovereign Base Areas of Cyprus, given their differing governance. This horizon scan provides the first systematic exercise to identify invasive alien species of potential concern to biodiversity and ecosystems but also human health within the Mediterranean region. The process and outcomes should provide other islands in the region and beyond with baseline data to improve IAS prioritisation and management