Credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare: ten rules from a multidisciplinary perspective

The complexities of modern biomedicine are rapidly increasing. Thus, modeling and simulation have become increasingly important as a strategy to understand and predict the trajectory of pathophysiology, disease genesis, and disease spread in support of clinical and policy decisions. In such cases, inappropriate or ill-placed trust in the model and simulation outcomes may result in negative outcomes, and hence illustrate the need to formalize the execution and communication of modeling and simulation practices. Although verification and validation have been generally accepted as significant components of a model\u27s credibility, they cannot be assumed to equate to a holistic credible practice, which includes activities that can impact comprehension and in-depth examination inherent in the development and reuse of the models. For the past several years, the Committee on Credible Practice of Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare, an interdisciplinary group seeded from a U.S. interagency initiative, has worked to codify best practices. Here, we provide Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare developed from a comparative analysis by the Committee\u27s multidisciplinary membership, followed by a large stakeholder community survey. These rules establish a unified conceptual framework for modeling and simulation design, implementation, evaluation, dissemination and usage across the modeling and simulation life-cycle. While biomedical science and clinical care domains have somewhat different requirements and expectations for credible practice, our study converged on rules that would be useful across a broad swath of model types. In brief, the rules are: (1) Define context clearly. (2) Use contextually appropriate data. (3) Evaluate within context. (4) List limitations explicitly. (5) Use version control. (6) Document appropriately. (7) Disseminate broadly. (8) Get independent reviews. (9) Test competing implementations. (10) Conform to standards. Although some of these are common sense guidelines, we have found that many are often missed or misconstrued, even by seasoned practitioners. Computational models are already widely used in basic science to generate new biomedical knowledge. As they penetrate clinical care and healthcare policy, contributing to personalized and precision medicine, clinical safety will require established guidelines for the credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare

Spurious Shear in Weak Lensing with LSST

The complete 10-year survey from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will image $\sim$ 20,000 square degrees of sky in six filter bands every few nights, bringing the final survey depth to $r\sim27.5$, with over 4 billion well measured galaxies. To take full advantage of this unprecedented statistical power, the systematic errors associated with weak lensing measurements need to be controlled to a level similar to the statistical errors. This work is the first attempt to quantitatively estimate the absolute level and statistical properties of the systematic errors on weak lensing shear measurements due to the most important physical effects in the LSST system via high fidelity ray-tracing simulations. We identify and isolate the different sources of algorithm-independent, \textit{additive} systematic errors on shear measurements for LSST and predict their impact on the final cosmic shear measurements using conventional weak lensing analysis techniques. We find that the main source of the errors comes from an inability to adequately characterise the atmospheric point spread function (PSF) due to its high frequency spatial variation on angular scales smaller than $\sim10'$ in the single short exposures, which propagates into a spurious shear correlation function at the $10^{-4}$--$10^{-3}$ level on these scales. With the large multi-epoch dataset that will be acquired by LSST, the stochastic errors average out, bringing the final spurious shear correlation function to a level very close to the statistical errors. Our results imply that the cosmological constraints from LSST will not be severely limited by these algorithm-independent, additive systematic effects.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, accepted by MNRA

Evaluation in Mice of a Conjugate Vaccine for Cholera Made from Vibrio cholerae O1 (Ogawa) O-Specific Polysaccharide

Background: Protective immunity against cholera is serogroup specific. Serogroup specificity in Vibrio cholerae is determined by the O-specific polysaccharide (OSP) of lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Generally, polysaccharides are poorly immunogenic, especially in young children. Methodology Here we report the evaluation in mice of a conjugate vaccine for cholera (OSP:TThc) made from V. cholerae O1 Ogawa O-Specific Polysaccharide–core (OSP) and recombinant tetanus toxoid heavy chain fragment (TThc). We immunized mice intramuscularly on days 0, 21, and 42 with OSP:TThc or OSP only, with or without dmLT, a non-toxigenic immunoadjuvant derived from heat labile toxin of Escherichia coli. Principal Findings We detected significant serum IgG antibody responses targeting OSP following a single immunization in mice receiving OSP:TThc with or without adjuvant. Anti-LPS IgG responses were detected following a second immunization in these cohorts. No anti-OSP or anti-LPS IgG responses were detected at any time in animals receiving un-conjugated OSP with or without immunoadjuvant, and in animals receiving immunoadjuvant alone. Responses were highest following immunization with adjuvant. Serum anti-OSP IgM responses were detected in mice receiving OSP:TThc with or without immunoadjuvant, and in mice receiving unconjugated OSP. Serum anti-LPS IgM and vibriocidal responses were detected in all vaccine cohorts except in mice receiving immunoadjuvant alone. No significant IgA anti-OSP or anti-LPS responses developed in any group. Administration of OSP:TThc and adjuvant also induced memory B cell responses targeting OSP and resulted in 95% protective efficacy in a mouse lethality cholera challenge model. Conclusion: We describe a protectively immunogenic cholera conjugate in mice. Development of a cholera conjugate vaccine could assist in inducing long-term protective immunity, especially in young children who respond poorly to polysaccharide antigens

Molecular Evolution of the Infrared Sensory Gene TRPA1 in Snakes and Implications for Functional Studies

TRPA1 is a calcium ion channel protein recently identified as the infrared receptor in pit organ-containing snakes. Therefore, understanding the molecular evolution of TRPA1 may help to illuminate the origin of “heat vision” in snakes and reveal the molecular mechanism of infrared sensitivity for TRPA1. To this end, we sequenced the infrared sensory gene TRPA1 in 24 snake species, representing nine snake families and multiple non-snake outgroups. We found that TRPA1 is under strong positive selection in the pit-bearing snakes studied, but not in other non-pit snakes and non-snake vertebrates. As a comparison, TRPV1, a gene closely related to TRPA1, was found to be under strong purifying selection in all the species studied, with no difference in the strength of selection between pit-bearing snakes and non-pit snakes. This finding demonstrates that the adaptive evolution of TRPA1 specifically occurred within the pit-bearing snakes and may be related to the functional modification for detecting infrared radiation. In addition, by comparing the TRPA1 protein sequences, we identified 11 amino acid sites that were diverged in pit-bearing snakes but conserved in non-pit snakes and other vertebrates, 21 sites that were diverged only within pit-vipers but conserved in the remaining snakes. These specific amino acid substitutions may be potentially functional important for infrared sensing

Non-equivalence of Wnt and R-spondin ligands during Lgr5+ intestinal stem-cell self-renewal

The canonical Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway governs diverse developmental, homeostatic and pathologic processes. Palmitoylated Wnt ligands engage cell surface Frizzled (Fzd) receptors and Lrp5/6 co-receptors enabling β-catenin nuclear translocation and Tcf/Lef-dependent gene transactivation1–3. Mutations in Wnt downstream signaling components have revealed diverse functions presumptively attributed to Wnt ligands themselves, although direct attribution remains elusive, as complicated by redundancy between 19 mammalian Wnts and 10 Fzds1 and Wnt hydrophobicity2,3. For example, individual Wnt ligand mutations have not revealed homeostatic phenotypes in the intestinal epithelium4, an archetypal canonical Wnt pathway-dependent rapidly self-renewing tissue whose regeneration is fueled by proliferative crypt Lgr5+ intestinal stem cells (ISCs)5–9. R-spondin ligands (Rspo1–4) engage distinct Lgr4-6 and Rnf43/Znrf3 receptor classes10–13, markedly potentiate canonical Wnt/β-catenin signaling and induce intestinal organoid growth in vitro and Lgr5+ ISCs in vivo8,14–17. However, the interchangeability, functional cooperation and relative contributions of Wnt versus Rspo ligands to in vivo canonical Wnt signaling and ISC biology remain unknown. Here, we deconstructed functional roles of Wnt versus Rspo ligands in the intestinal crypt stem cell niche. We demonstrate that the default fate of Lgr5+ ISCs is lineage commitment, escape from which requires both Rspo and Wnt ligands. However, gain-of-function studies using Rspo versus a novel non-lipidated Wnt analog reveal qualitatively distinct, non-interchangeable roles for these ligands in ISCs. Wnts are insufficient to induce Lgr5+ ISC self-renewal, but rather confer a basal competency by maintaining Rspo receptor expression that enables Rspo to actively drive and specify the extent of stem cell expansion. This functionally non-equivalent yet cooperative interplay between Wnt and Rspo ligands establishes a molecular precedent for regulation of mammalian stem cells by distinct priming and self-renewal factors, with broad implications for precision control of tissue regeneration

SirT1 modulates the estrogen–insulin-like growth factor-1 signaling for postnatal development of mammary gland in mice

INTRODUCTION: Estrogen and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) play important roles in mammary gland development and breast cancer. SirT1 is a highly conserved protein deacetylase that can regulate the insulin/IGF-1 signaling in lower organisms, as well as a growing number of transcription factors, including NF-κB, in mammalian cells. Whether SirT1 regulates the IGF-1 signaling for mammary gland development and function, however, is not clear. In the present study, this role of SirT1 was examined by studying SirT1-deficient mice. METHODS: SirT1-deficient (SirT1(ko/ko)) mice were generated by crossing a new strain of mice harboring a conditional targeted mutation in the SirT1 gene (SirT1(co/co)) with CMV-Cre transgenic mice. Whole mount and histology analyses, immunofluorescence staining, immunohistochemistry, and western blotting were used to characterize mammary gland development in virgin and pregnant mice. The effect of exogenous estrogen was also examined by subcutaneous implantation of a slow-releasing pellet in the subscapular region. RESULTS: Both male and female SirT1(ko/ko )mice can be fertile despite the growth retardation phenotype. Virgin SirT1(ko/ko )mice displayed impeded ductal morphogenesis, whereas pregnant SirT1(ko/ko )mice manifested lactation failure due to an underdeveloped lobuloalveolar network. Estrogen implantation was sufficient to rescue ductal morphogenesis. Exogenous estrogen reversed the increased basal level of IGF-1 binding protein-1 expression in SirT1(ko/ko )mammary tissues, but not that of IκBα expression, suggesting that increased levels of estrogen enhanced the production of local IGF-1 and rescued ductal morphogenesis. Additionally, TNFα treatment enhanced the level of the newly synthesized IκBα in SirT1(ko/ko )cells. SirT1 deficiency therefore affects the cellular response to multiple extrinsic signals. CONCLUSION: SirT1 modulates the IGF-1 signaling critical for both growth regulation and mammary gland development in mice. SirT1 deficiency deregulates the expression of IGF-1 binding protein-1 and attenuates the effect of IGF-1 signals, including estrogen-stimulated local IGF-1 signaling for the onset of ductal morphogenesis. These findings suggest that the enzymatic activity of SirT1 may influence both normal growth and malignant growth of mammary epithelial cells

Whole-body tissue stabilization and selective extractions via tissue-hydrogel hybrids for high-resolution intact circuit mapping and phenotyping

To facilitate fine-scale phenotyping of whole specimens, we describe here a set of tissue fixation-embedding, detergent-clearing and staining protocols that can be used to transform excised organs and whole organisms into optically transparent samples within 1–2 weeks without compromising their cellular architecture or endogenous fluorescence. PACT (passive CLARITY technique) and PARS (perfusion-assisted agent release in situ) use tissue-hydrogel hybrids to stabilize tissue biomolecules during selective lipid extraction, resulting in enhanced clearing efficiency and sample integrity. Furthermore, the macromolecule permeability of PACT- and PARS-processed tissue hybrids supports the diffusion of immunolabels throughout intact tissue, whereas RIMS (refractive index matching solution) grants high-resolution imaging at depth by further reducing light scattering in cleared and uncleared samples alike. These methods are adaptable to difficult-to-image tissues, such as bone (PACT-deCAL), and to magnified single-cell visualization (ePACT). Together, these protocols and solutions enable phenotyping of subcellular components and tracing cellular connectivity in intact biological networks

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

Background: The EMPA KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population. Methods: EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. Findings: Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5–2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62–0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16–1·59), representing a 50% (42–58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1). Interpretation: In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease. Funding: Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council

Genome-Wide Association Study Implicates Chromosome 9q21.31 as a Susceptibility Locus for Asthma in Mexican Children

Many candidate genes have been studied for asthma, but replication has varied. Novel candidate genes have been identified for various complex diseases using genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We conducted a GWAS in 492 Mexican children with asthma, predominantly atopic by skin prick test, and their parents using the Illumina HumanHap 550 K BeadChip to identify novel genetic variation for childhood asthma. The 520,767 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) passing quality control were tested for association with childhood asthma using log-linear regression with a log-additive risk model. Eleven of the most significantly associated GWAS SNPs were tested for replication in an independent study of 177 Mexican case–parent trios with childhood-onset asthma and atopy using log-linear analysis. The chromosome 9q21.31 SNP rs2378383 (p = 7.10×10−6 in the GWAS), located upstream of transducin-like enhancer of split 4 (TLE4), gave a p-value of 0.03 and the same direction and magnitude of association in the replication study (combined p = 6.79×10−7). Ancestry analysis on chromosome 9q supported an inverse association between the rs2378383 minor allele (G) and childhood asthma. This work identifies chromosome 9q21.31 as a novel susceptibility locus for childhood asthma in Mexicans. Further, analysis of genome-wide expression data in 51 human tissues from the Novartis Research Foundation showed that median GWAS significance levels for SNPs in genes expressed in the lung differed most significantly from genes not expressed in the lung when compared to 50 other tissues, supporting the biological plausibility of our overall GWAS findings and the multigenic etiology of childhood asthma

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700