On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: new insights into data–model integration

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively

Saturn Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics

2 Saturn inhabits a dynamical regime of rapidly rotating, internally heated atmospheres similar to Jupiter. Zonal winds have remained fairly steady since the time of Voyager except in the equatorial zone and slightly stronger winds occur at deeper levels. Eddies supply energy to the jets at a rate somewhat less than on Jupiter and mix potential vorticity near westward jets. Convective clouds exist preferentially in cyclonic shear regions as on Jupiter but also near jets, including major outbreaks near 35°S associated with Saturn electrostatic discharges, and in sporadic giant equatorial storms perhaps generated from frequent events at depth. The implied meridional circulation at and below the visible cloud tops consists of upwelling (downwelling) at cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) shear latitudes. Thermal winds decay upward above the clouds, implying a reversal of the circulation there. Warm-core vortices with associated cyclonic circulations exist at both poles, including surrounding thick high clouds at the south pole. Disequilibrium gas concentrations in the tropical upper troposphere imply rising motion there. The radiative-convective boundary and tropopause occur at higher pressure in the southern (summer) hemisphere due to greater penetration of solar heating there. A temperature “knee ” of warm air below the tropopause, perhaps due to haze heating, is stronger in the summer hemisphere as well. Saturn’s south polar stratosphere is warmer than predicted by radiative models and enhanced in ethane, suggesting subsidence-driven adiabatic warming there. Recent modeling advances suggest that shallow weather laye

Dynamics of groundwater recharge and seepage over the Canadian landscape during the Wisconsinian glaciation

Pleistocene glaciations and their associated dramatic climatic conditions are suspected to ave had a large impact on the groundwater flow system over the entire North American continent. Because of the myriad of complex flow-related processes involved during a glaciation period, numerical models have become powerful tools for examining groundwater flow system evolution in this context. In this study, a series of key processes pertaining to coupled groundwater flow and glaciation modeling, such as density-dependent (i.e., brine) flow, hydromechanical loading, subglacial infiltration, isostasy, and permafrost development, are included in the numerical model HydroGeoSphere to simulate groundwater flow over the Canadian landscape during the Wisconsinian glaciation (∼ - 120 ka to present). The primary objective is to demonstrate the immense impact of glacial advances and retreats during the Wisconsinian glaciation on the dynamical evolution of groundwater flow systems over the Canadian landscape, including surface-subsurface water exchanges (i.e., recharge and discharge fluxes) in both the subglacial and the periglacial environments. It is shown that much of the infiltration of subglacial meltwater occurs during ice sheet progression and that during ice sheet regression, groundwater mainly exfiltrates on the surface, in both the subglacial and periglacial environments. The average infiltration/ exfiltration fluxes range between 0 and 12 mm/a. Using mixed, ice sheet thickness-dependent boundary conditions for the subglacial environment, it was estimated that 15-70% of the meltwater infiltrated into the subsurface as recharge, with an average of 43%. Considering the volume of meltwater that was generated subsequent to the last glacial maximum, these recharge rates, which are related to the bedrock type and elastic properties, are historically significant and therefore played an immense role in the evolution of groundwater flow system evolution over the Canadian landmass over the last 120 ka. Finally, it is shown that the permafrost extent plays a key role in the distribution of surface-subsurface interaction because the presence of permafrost acts as a barrier for groundwater flow

Simulating the impact of glaciations on continental groundwater flow systems: 1. Relevant processes and model formulation

In the recent literature, it has been shown that Pleistocene glaciations had a large impact on North American regional groundwater flow systems. Because of the myriad of complex processes and large spatial scales involved during periods of glaciation, numerical models have become powerful tools to examine how ice sheets control subsurface flow systems. In this paper, the key processes that must be represented in a continental-scale 3-D numerical model of groundwater flow during a glaciation are reviewed, including subglacial infiltration, density-dependent (i.e., high-salinity) groundwater flow, permafrost evolution, isostasy, sea level changes, and ice sheet loading. One-dimensional hydromechanical coupling associated with ice loading and brine generation were included in the numerical model HydroGeoSphere and tested against newly developed exact analytical solutions to verify their implementation. Other processes such as subglacial infiltration, permafrost evolution, and isostasy were explicitly added to HydroGeoSphere. A specified flux constrained by the ice sheet thickness was found to be the most appropriate boundary condition in the subglacial environment. For the permafrost, frozen and unfrozen elements can be selected at every time step with specified hydraulic conductivities. For the isostatic adjustment, the elevations of all the grid nodes in each vertical grid column below the ice sheet are adjusted uniformly to account for the Earth's crust depression and rebound. In a companion paper, the model is applied to the Wisconsinian glaciation over the Canadian landscape in order to illustrate the concepts developed in this paper and to better understand the impact of glaciation on 3-D continental groundwater flow systems

Internal thermal boundary layer stability in phase transition modulated convection

NSERCPeer ReviewedThe stability of a horizontal thermal boundary layer embedded within a very viscous fluid is investigated using the formalism of linear stability analysis. Thin thermal boundary layers in deep fluid regions and in the absence of phase transition and dynamical effects are thereby shown to be unstable at extremely long wavelengths. The stability of the internal thermal boundary layer which may exist at 660 km depth in the Earth's mantle as a consequence of the dynamical influence of the endothermic phase transition from γ spinel to a mixture of perovskite and magnesiowüstite, recently discussed in some detail by Solheim and Peltier [1994a], is investigated in order to better understand the “avalanche effect” observed in this and similar nonlinear, time dependent simulations of the mantle convection process. It is demonstrated that if the stability problem is treated as purely thermal, then the boundary layer is predicted to be extremely unstable and the presence of the 660‐km endothermic phase transition at middepth within the boundary layer is further destabilizing. When the kinematic effect of flow convergence onto the boundary layer and phase transition region is active, however, it is shown that the layer may be strongly stabilized. In the regime of physically realistic velocity convergence, the critical Rayleigh number is predicted to lie in the range suggested by the numerical simulations of Solheim and Peltier [1994a]. A threshold value of the magnitude of the Clapeyron slope of the endothermic phase transition for a given velocity convergence is also shown to exist, beyond which the fastest‐growing mode of instability changes from avalanche type to layered type

Dynamics of the ice-age Earth: Solid mechanics and fluid mechanics

The global theory of the glacial isostatic adjustment process is employed to infer the thicknesses of the continental ice sheets that existed at Last Glacial Maximum 21000 calendar years before present. Further analyses allow the global ice thickness distribution to be mapped into a “paleo-topography” for the planet as a whole, a field that is of primary importance for the understanding, through the application of modem general circulation models, of the surface climate that was characteristic of this epoch of Earth history. Crucial to the success of this procedure is knowledge of the radial visco-elastic structure of the solid Earth. Given an accurate model of the topography of the planet at Last Glacial Maximum that includes the component associated with the distribution of land ice, together with a “surface albedo mask” which differentiates ice covered from non-ice- covered regions, we may proceed to simulate the climate at glacial maximum using a modem coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Recently obtained results of this program are described which include an initial assessment of the primary modes of climate variability that were characteristic of the glacial state

Far-field test of the ICE-4G model of global isostatic response to deglaciation using empirical and theoretical holocene sea-level reconstructions for the Fiji Islands, Southwestern Pacific

Holocene paleosea – level data for Fiji, represented by 77 dates and emergence magnitudes, are presented, screened and adjusted. Most data are from coral microatolls, potentially the most precise paleosea – level indictors in this region. Holocene sea – level changes are reconstructed within five years within Fiji known to have had different late Quaternary tectonic histories. Resulting analysis suggests that postglacial sea – level in Fiji reached its present level more than 6900(*14) C yr B.P. It also suggests either that a single maximum 5650 – 3200(*14) C yr B.P. (perhaps +2.19m but more likely + 1.35 – 1.50m) occurred or that two maxima occurred 6100 – 4550 (*14) C yr B.P. ( +0.75 – 1.85m) and 3590 – 2800 (*14) C yr B.P. (+0.90 – 2.46m). Broad agreement exists between these empirical sea – level reconstructions and those derived theoretically using the ICE-4G model (predicted maximum 4000 (*14) C yr B.P.; + 2.1 m ). This suggests that both methods of reconstructing Holocene sea – level changes are valid, as are the assumptions underpinning the ICE-4G model. The most important of these that eustatic sea level had effectively stopped rising by late middle – Holocene time [5000 – 4000yr B.P.], is confirmed by observations from Fiji