Application of control methods for modelling the flow of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

The distribution of basal traction on a transect along Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, is estimated by inverting observed surface velocities using a control method and a simple numerical stream-flow model. This model calculates the horizontal flow along a transect, based on the assumptions that the horizontal flow is independent of ice depth and that the driving stresses are balanced by resistive forces at the glacier bed and margin and by gradients in longitudinal stress. Basal traction is assumed to be linearly related to the basal velocity. For the lateral shear traction a parameterization based on an inversion of Glen's flow law is used. The application of the control method allows us to calculate the set of model parameters (e.g. the basal friction coefficient) that gives the best fit between modelled and observed surface velocities. The model is used to investigate the stress regime of Pine Island Glacier, in particular to estimate the importance of basal, lateral and longitudinal stresses relative to each other. In the flat region just behind the grounding line, basal drag, lateral drag and the longitudinal stress gradient are the same order of magnitude. In the steep region up-glacier from the grounding line, the driving stresses are highest and balanced predominantly by basal resistive stresses. Further upstream, in the trunk of the glacier, lateral and basal drag predominate

Reconstructing ice-sheet accumulation rates at ridge B, East Antarctica

Understanding how ice sheets responded to past climate change is fundamental to forecasting how they will respond in the future. Numerical models calculating the evolution of ice sheets depend upon accumulation data, which are principally available from ice cores. Here, we calculate past rates of ice accumulation using internal layering. The englacial structure of the East Antarctic ice divide at ridge B is extracted from airborne ice-penetrating radar. The isochronous surfaces are dated at their intersection with the Vostok ice-core site, where the depth–age relationship is known. The dated isochrons are used as input to a one-dimensional ice-flow model to investigate the spatial accumulation distribution. The calculations show that ice-accumulation rates generally increase from Vostok lake towards ridge B. The western flank of the ice divide experiences markedly more accumulation than in the east. Further, ice accumulation increases northwards along the ice divide. The results also show the variability of accumulation in time and space around the ridge B ice divide over the last 124 000 years

Contrasting the modelled sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice streams

Present-day mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet is centred on the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), primarily through ice streams, including Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers. To understand the differences in response of these ice streams, we ran a perturbed parameter ensemble, using a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. We generated 71 sets of three physical parameters (basal traction coefficient, ice viscosity stiffening factor and sub-shelf melt rate), which we used to simulate the ASE for 50 years. We also explored the effects of different bed geometries and basal sliding laws. The mean rate of sea-level rise across the ensemble of simulations is comparable with current observed rates for the ASE. We found evidence that grounding line dynamics are sensitive to features in the bed geometry: simulations using BedMap2 geometry resulted in a higher rate of sea-level rise than simulations using a rougher geometry, created using mass conservation. Modelled grounding-line retreat of all the three ice streams was sensitive to viscosity and basal traction, while the melt rate was more important in Pine Island and Smith glaciers, which flow through more confined ice shelves than Thwaites, which has a relatively unconfined shelf

Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ice shelf collapse is explored with a high resolution ice sheet model. Rapid melting is applied to each of its major present day drainage basins in turn , to determine which parts of the ice sheet are most vulnerable to change in oceanic forcing, over the next 1000 years. We findthat West Antarctica can be largely deglaciated over a millenium, leading to more than two metres of sea level rise, if any of its major ice shelved disintegrated. The response of East Antarctica is more muted, but not negligible

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance activity in the United Kingdom: a survey on behalf of the british society of cardiovascular magnetic resonance

<p>Background: The indications, complexity and capabilities of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) have rapidly expanded. Whether actual service provision and training have developed in parallel is unknown.</p> <p>Methods: We undertook a systematic telephone and postal survey of all public hospitals on behalf of the British Society of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance to identify all CMR providers within the United Kingdom.</p> <p>Results: Of the 60 CMR centres identified, 88% responded to a detailed questionnaire. Services are led by cardiologists and radiologists in equal proportion, though the majority of current trainees are cardiologists. The mean number of CMR scans performed annually per centre increased by 44% over two years. This trend was consistent across centres of different scanning volumes. The commonest indication for CMR was assessment of heart failure and cardiomyopathy (39%), followed by coronary artery disease and congenital heart disease. There was striking geographical variation in CMR availability, numbers of scans performed, and distribution of trainees. Centres without on site scanning capability refer very few patients for CMR. Just over half of centres had a formal training programme, and few performed regular audit.</p> <p>Conclusion: The number of CMR scans performed in the UK has increased dramatically in just two years. Trainees are mainly located in large volume centres and enrolled in cardiology as opposed to radiology training programmes.</p&gt

Buoyant forces promote tidewater glacier iceberg calving through large basal stress concentrations

Iceberg calving parameterisations currently implemented in ice sheet models do not reproduce the full observed range of calving behaviours. For example, though buoyant forces at the ice front are known to trigger full-depth calving events on major Greenland outlet glaciers, a multi-stage iceberg calving event at Jakobshavn Isbr&aelig; is unexplained by existing models. To explain this and similar events, we propose a notch-triggered rotation mechanism, whereby a relatively small subaerial calving event triggers a larger full-depth calving event due to the abrupt increase in buoyant load and the associated stresses generated at the ice&ndash;bed interface. We investigate the notch-triggered rotation mechanism by applying a geometric perturbation to the subaerial section of the calving front in a diagnostic flow-line model of an idealised glacier snout, using the full-Stokes, finite element method code Elmer/Ice. Different sliding laws and water pressure boundary conditions are applied at the ice&ndash;bed interface. Water pressure has a big influence on the likelihood of calving, and stress concentrations large enough to open crevasses were generated in basal ice. Significantly, the location of stress concentrations produced calving events of approximately the size observed, providing support for future application of the notch-triggered rotation mechanism in ice-sheet models.</p

Testing peatland testate amoeba transfer functions: Appropriate methods for clustered training-sets

Transfer functions are widely used in palaeoecology to infer past environmental conditions from fossil remains of many groups of organisms. In contrast to traditional training-set design with one observation per site, some training-sets, including those for peatland testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions, have a clustered structure with many observations from each site. Here we show that this clustered design causes standard performance statistics to be overly optimistic. Model performance when applied to independent data sets is considerably weaker than suggested by statistical cross-validation. We discuss the reasons for these problems and describe leave-one-site-out cross-validation and the cluster bootstrap as appropriate methods for clustered training-sets. Using these methods we show that the performance of most testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions is worse than previously assumed and reconstructions are more uncertain

The Antarctic contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet

The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice–climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between the UK Earth System Model and the BISICLES (Berkeley Ice Sheet Initiative for Climate at Extreme Scales) dynamic ice sheet model to investigate Antarctic ice–climate interactions under two climate change scenarios. We perform ensembles of SSP1–1.9 and SSP5–8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario simulations to 2100, which we believe are the first such simulations with a climate model that include two-way coupling of atmosphere and ocean models to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We focus our analysis on the latter. In SSP1–1.9 simulations, ice shelf basal melting and grounded ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet are generally lower than present rates during the entire simulation period. In contrast, the responses to SSP5–8.5 forcing are strong. By the end of the 21st century, these simulations feature order-of-magnitude increases in basal melting of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne ice shelves, caused by intrusions of masses of warm ocean water. Due to the slow response of ice sheet drawdown, this strong melting does not cause a substantial increase in ice discharge during the simulations. The surface mass balance in SSP5–8.5 simulations shows a pattern of strong decrease on ice shelves, caused by increased melting, and strong increase on grounded ice, caused by increased snowfall. Despite strong surface and basal melting of the ice shelves, increased snowfall dominates the mass budget of the grounded ice, leading to an ensemble mean Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level of a fall of 22 mm by 2100 in the SSP5–8.5 scenario. We hypothesise that this signal would revert to sea-level rise on longer timescales, caused by the ice sheet dynamic response to ice shelf thinning. These results demonstrate the need for fully coupled ice–climate models in reducing the substantial uncertainty in sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet