The DWD climate predictions website: Towards a seamless outlook based on subseasonal, seasonal and decadal predictions

The climate predictions website of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, https://www.dwd.de/climatepredictions) presents a consistent operational outlook for the coming weeks, months and years, focusing on the needs of German users. At global scale, subseasonal predictions from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as well as seasonal and decadal predictions from the DWD are used. Statistical downscaling is applied to achieve high resolution over Germany. Lead-time dependent bias correction is performed on all time scales. Additionally, decadal predictions are recalibrated. The website offers ensemble mean and probabilistic predictions for temperature and precipitation combined with their skill (mean squared error skill score, ranked probability skill score). Two levels of complexity are offered: basic climate predictions display simple, regionally averaged information for Germany, German regions and cities as maps, time series and tables. The skill is presented as traffic light. Expert climate predictions show complex, gridded predictions for Germany (at high resolution), Europe and the world as maps and time series. The skill is displayed as the size of dots. Their color is related to the signal in the prediction. The website was developed in cooperation with users from different sectors via surveys, workshops and meetings to guarantee its understandability and usability. The users realize the potential of climate predictions, but some need advice in using probabilistic predictions and skill. Future activities will include the further development of predictions to improve skill (multi-model ensembles, teleconnections), the introduction of additional products (data provision, extremes) and the further clarification of the information (interactivity, video clips)

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy

Bim and Noxa are candidates to mediate the deleterious effect of the NF-kappa B subunit RelA in cerebral ischemia.

The transcription factor nuclear factor B (NF-kB) is well known for its antiapoptotic action. However, in some disorders, such as cerebral ischemia, a proapoptotic function of NF-B has been demonstrated. To analyze which subunit of NF-B is functional in cerebral ischemia, we induced focal cerebral ischemia in mice with a germline deletion of the p52 or c-Rel gene or with a conditional deletion of RelA in the brain. Only RelA deficiency reduced infarct size. Interestingly, expression of the proapoptotic BH3 (Bcl-2 homology domain 3)-only genes Bim and Noxa in cerebral ischemia depended on RelA and the upstream kinase IKK (IkB kinase). RelA stimulated Bim and Noxa gene transcription in primary cortical neurons and bound to the promoter of both genes. Thus, the deleterious function in cerebral ischemia is specific for the NF-kB subunit RelA and may be mediated through Bim and Noxa