Describing the longitudinal course of major depression using Markov models: Data integration across three national surveys

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies of major depression report period prevalence estimates. These are of limited utility in characterizing the longitudinal epidemiology of this condition. Markov models provide a methodological framework for increasing the utility of epidemiological data. Markov models relating incidence and recovery to major depression prevalence have been described in a series of prior papers. In this paper, the models are extended to describe the longitudinal course of the disorder. METHODS: Data from three national surveys conducted by the Canadian national statistical agency (Statistics Canada) were used in this analysis. These data were integrated using a Markov model. Incidence, recurrence and recovery were represented as weekly transition probabilities. Model parameters were calibrated to the survey estimates. RESULTS: The population was divided into three categories: low, moderate and high recurrence groups. The size of each category was approximated using lifetime data from a study using the WHO Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Consistent with previous work, transition probabilities reflecting recovery were high in the initial weeks of the episodes, and declined by a fixed proportion with each passing week. CONCLUSION: Markov models provide a framework for integrating psychiatric epidemiological data. Previous studies have illustrated the utility of Markov models for decomposing prevalence into its various determinants: incidence, recovery and mortality. This study extends the Markov approach by distinguishing several recurrence categories

Graphical programming: A systems approach for telerobotic servicing of space assets

Satellite servicing is in many ways analogous to subsea robotic servicing in the late 1970's. A cost effective, reliable, telerobotic capability had to be demonstrated before the oil companies invested money in deep water robot serviceable production facilities. In the same sense, aeronautic engineers will not design satellites for telerobotic servicing until such a quantifiable capability has been demonstrated. New space servicing systems will be markedly different than existing space robot systems. Past space manipulator systems, including the Space Shuttle's robot arm, have used master/slave technologies with poor fidelity, slow operating speeds and most importantly, in-orbit human operators. In contrast, new systems will be capable of precision operations, conducted at higher rates of speed, and be commanded via ground-control communication links. Challenge presented by this environment include achieving a mandated level of robustness and dependability, radiation hardening, minimum weight and power consumption, and a system which accommodates the inherent communication delay between the ground station and the satellite. There is also a need for a user interface which is easy to use, ensures collision free motions, and is capable of adjusting to an unknown workcell (for repair operations the condition of the satellite may not be known in advance). This paper describes the novel technologies required to deliver such a capability

The Ultrasensitivity of Living Polymers

Synthetic and biological living polymers are self-assembling chains whose chain length distributions (CLDs) are dynamic. We show these dynamics are ultrasensitive: even a small perturbation (e.g. temperature jump) non-linearly distorts the CLD, eliminating or massively augmenting short chains. The origin is fast relaxation of mass variables (mean chain length, monomer concentration) which perturbs CLD shape variables before these can relax via slow chain growth rate fluctuations. Viscosity relaxation predictions agree with experiments on the best-studied synthetic system, alpha-methylstyrene.Comment: 4 pages, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

A Sensitive Search for Variability in Late L Dwarfs: The Quest for Weather

We have conducted a photometric monitoring program of three field late L brown dwarfs (DENIS-P J0255-4700, 2MASS J0908+5032, and 2MASS J2244+2043) looking for evidence of nonaxisymmetric structure or temporal variability in their photospheres. The observations were performed using Spitzer IRAC 4.5 and 8 μm bandpasses and were designed to cover at least one rotational period of each object; 1 σ rms uncertainties of less than 3 mmag at 4.5 μm and around 9 mmag at 8 μm were achieved. Two out of the three objects studied exhibit some modulation in their light curves at 4.5 μm—but not 8 μm—with periods of 7.4 hr (DENIS 0255) and 4.6 hr (2MA 2244) and peak-to-peak amplitudes of 10 and 8 mmag. Although the lack of detectable 8 μm variation suggests an instrumental origin for the detected variations, the data may nevertheless still be consistent with intrinsic variability, since the shorter wavelength IRAC bandpasses probe more deeply into late L dwarf atmospheres than the longer wavelengths. A cloud feature occupying a small percentage (1%-2%) of the visible hemisphere could account for the observed amplitude of variation. If, instead, the variability is indeed instrumental in origin, then our nonvariable L dwarfs could be either completely covered with clouds or objects whose clouds are smaller and uniformly distributed. Such scenarios would lead to very small photometric variations. Follow-up IRAC photometry at 3.6 and 5.8 μm bandpasses should distinguish between the two cases. In any event, the present observations provide the most sensitive search to date for structure in the photospheres of late L dwarfs at mid-IR wavelengths, and our photometry provides stringent upper limits to the extent to which the photospheres of these transition L dwarfs are structured

A Spitzer IRAC Imaging Survey for T Dwarf Companions Around M, L, and T Dwarfs: Observations, Results, and Monte Carlo Population Analyses

We report observational techniques, results, and Monte Carlo population analyses from a Spitzer Infrared Array Camera imaging survey for substellar companions to 117 nearby M, L, and T dwarf systems (median distance of 10 pc, mass range of 0.6 to \sim0.05 M\odot). The two-epoch survey achieves typical detection sensitivities to substellar companions of [4.5 {\mu}m] \leq 17.2 mag for angular separations between about 7" and 165". Based on common proper motion analysis, we find no evidence for new substellar companions. Using Monte Carlo orbital simulations (assuming random inclination, random eccentricity, and random longitude of pericenter), we conclude that the observational sensitivities translate to an ability to detect 600-1100K brown dwarf companions at semimajor axes greater than ~35 AU, and to detect 500-600K companions at semimajor axes greater than ~60 AU. The simulations also estimate a 600-1100K T dwarf companion fraction of < 3.4% for 35-1200 AU separations, and < 12.4% for the 500-600K companions, for 60-1000 AU separations.Comment: 35 pages, 6 figure

Discovery of Two T Dwarf Companions with the Spitzer Space Telescope

We report the discovery of T dwarf companions to the nearby stars HN Peg (G0V, 18.4 pc, ~0.3 Gyr) and HD 3651 (K0V, 11.1 pc, ~7 Gyr). During an ongoing survey of 5'x5' fields surrounding stars in the solar neighborhood with IRAC aboard the Spitzer Space Telescope, we identified these companions as candidate T dwarfs based on their mid-IR colors. Using near-IR spectra obtained with SpeX at the NASA IRTF, we confirm the presence of methane absorption that characterizes T dwarfs and measure spectral types of T2.5+/-0.5 and T7.5+/-0.5 for HN Peg B and HD 3651 B, respectively. By comparing our Spitzer data to images from 2MASS obtained several years earlier, we find that the proper motions of HN Peg B and HD 3651 B are consistent with those of the primaries, confirming their companionship. HN Peg B and HD 3651 B have angular separations of 43.2" and 42.9" from their primaries, which correspond to projected physical separations of 795 and 476 AU, respectively. A comparison of their luminosities to the values predicted by theoretical evolutionary models implies masses of 0.021+/-0.009 and 0.051+/-0.014 Msun for HN Peg B and HD 3651 B. In addition, the models imply an effective temperature for HN Peg B that is significantly lower than the values derived for other T dwarfs at similar spectral types, which is the same behavior reported by Metchev & Hillenbrand for the young late-L dwarf HD 203030 B. Thus, the temperature of the L/T transition appears to depend on surface gravity. Meanwhile, HD 3651 B is the first substellar companion directly imaged around a star that is known to harbor a close-in planet from RV surveys. The discovery of this companion supports the notion that the high eccentricities of close-in planets like the one near HD 3651 may be the result of perturbations by low-mass companions at wide separations.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, in pres

Pseudo-single crystal electrochemistry on polycrystalline electrodes : visualizing activity at grains and grain boundaries on platinum for the Fe2+/Fe3+ redox reaction

The influence of electrode surface structure on electrochemical reaction rates and mechanisms is a major theme in electrochemical research, especially as electrodes with inherent structural heterogeneities are used ubiquitously. Yet, probing local electrochemistry and surface structure at complex surfaces is challenging. In this paper, high spatial resolution scanning electrochemical cell microscopy (SECCM) complemented with electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) is demonstrated as a means of performing ‘pseudo-single-crystal’ electrochemical measurements at individual grains of a polycrystalline platinum electrode, while also allowing grain boundaries to be probed. Using the Fe2+/3+ couple as an illustrative case, a strong correlation is found between local surface structure and electrochemical activity. Variations in electrochemical activity for individual high index grains, visualized in a weakly adsorbing perchlorate medium, show that there is higher activity on grains with a significant (101) orientation contribution, compared to those with (001) and (111) contribution, consistent with findings on single-crystal electrodes. Interestingly, for Fe2+ oxidation in a sulfate medium a different pattern of activity emerges. Here, SECCM reveals only minor variations in activity between individual grains, again consistent with single-crystal studies, with a greatly enhanced activity at grain boundaries. This suggests that these sites may contribute significantly to the overall electrochemical behavior measured on the macroscale

Understanding the UK hospital supply chain in an era of patient choice

Author Posting © Westburn Publishers Ltd, 2011. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copy-edit version of an article which has been published in its definitive form in the Journal of Marketing Management, and has been posted by permission of Westburn Publishers Ltd for personal use, not for redistribution. The article was published in Journal of Marketing Management, 27(3-4), 401 - 423, doi:10.1080/0267257X.2011.547084 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0267257X.2011.547084The purpose of this paper is to investigate the UK hospital supply chain in light of recent government policy reform where patients will have, inter alia, greater choice of hospital for elective surgery. Subsequently, the hospital system should become far more competitive with supply chains having to react to these changes as patient demand becomes less predictable. Using a qualitative case study methodology, hospital managers are interviewed on a range of issues. Views on the development of the hospital supply chain in different phases are derived, and are used to develop a map of the current hospital chain. The findings show hospital managers anticipating some significant changes to the hospital supply chain and its workings as Patient Choice expands. The research also maps the various aspects of the hospital supply chain as it moves through different operational phases and highlights underlying challenges and complexities. The hospital supply chain, as discussed and mapped in this research, is original work given there are no examples in the literature that provide holistic representations of hospital activity. At the end, specific recommendations are provided that will be of interest to service to managers, researchers, and policymakers

Effects of early life exposure to traffic-related air pollution on brain development in juvenile Sprague-Dawley rats

Epidemiological studies link traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) to increased risk for various neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs); however, there are limited preclinical data demonstrating a causal relationship between TRAP and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. Moreover, much of the preclinical literature reports effects of concentrated ambient particles or diesel exhaust that do not recapitulate the complexity of real-world TRAP exposures. To assess the developmental neurotoxicity of more realistic TRAP exposures, we exposed male and female rats during gestation and early postnatal development to TRAP drawn directly from a traffic tunnel in Northern California and delivered to animals in real-time. We compared NDD-relevant neuropathological outcomes at postnatal days 51-55 in TRAP-exposed animals versus control subjects exposed to filtered air. As indicated by immunohistochemical analyses, TRAP significantly increased microglial infiltration in the CA1 hippocampus, but decreased astrogliosis in the dentate gyrus. TRAP exposure had no persistent effect on pro-inflammatory cytokine levels in the male or female brain, but did significantly elevate the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 in females. In male rats, TRAP significantly increased hippocampal neurogenesis, while in females, TRAP increased granule cell layer width. TRAP had no effect on apoptosis in either sex. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed that TRAP-exposed females, but not males, also exhibited decreased lateral ventricular volume, which was correlated with increased granule cell layer width in the hippocampus in females. Collectively, these data indicate that exposure to real-world levels of TRAP during gestation and early postnatal development modulate neurodevelopment, corroborating epidemiological evidence of an association between TRAP exposure and increased risk of NDDs