The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being associated with weak and deteriorating fundamentals, cannot be explained by these macroeconomic factors alone. Estimating a univariate Markovswitching model, this paper shows that shifts in agents' beliefs did indeed also play a crucial role.Currency crises, Self-fulfilling speculation, Markov-switching models

External Debt in Post-Conflict Countries

In the development literature, there exists no systematic study of external borrowing in post-conflict countries. We address this gap by analyzing statistical and case study evidence from three African countries. We find that many war-affected countries face rising debt arrears and deteriorating relations with creditors. Rebuilding trust between lenders and borrowers is hence a crucial but often slow process. Furthermore, donors to war-affected African countries have been slow to grant exceptional debt relief based odious debt or on financial requirements. Debt relief for post-conflict reconstruction should embrace a more forward-looking and more generous conditionality.

The Baltic States: No End to the Crisis in Sight

The global financial crisis and the dramatic slump in private capital flows associated with it has particularly affected the economies of the Baltic countries. The real gross domestic product decreased in the first half of 2009 in Latvia by 18.8 percent, in Estonia by 15.7 percent and in Lithuania by 11 percent. In the run-up to the current crisis, these countries had a high percentage of bank-related capital inflows that was mostly used for the financing of very high current account deficits. Currently, due to their fixed currency exchange systems and due to the lack of a possibility to create fiscal momentum, the Baltic countries only have limited economic scope of action. The situation of the public budgets is particularly tense in Latvia. Early warning indicators point to an imminent currency crisis in Latvia. A devaluation would improve the competitiveness of the country, but due to the high amount of credits given in foreign currencies, it would lead to large-scale domestic credit failures. A strong devaluation could also have negative effects on the two other Baltic countries. The example of the Baltic States shows how problematic a development strategy that is based on a high degree of foreign capital inflows actually is.Baltic countries, Currency crisis

Mis-Leading Indicators?: The Argentinean Currency Crisis

Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the "early warning" or "signals" approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina.Currency Crisis, Early Warning Systems

Baltikum: kein Ende der Krise in Sicht

Die globale Finanzkrise und der damit verbundene dramatische Einbruch der privaten Kapitalflüsse hat die Volkswirtschaften der baltischen Länder in besonderem Maße getroffen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im ersten Halbjahr 2009 in Lettland um 18,8 Prozent, in Estland um 15,7 Prozent und in Litauen um 11 Prozent gesunken. Diese Länder wiesen im Vorfeld der aktuellen Krise einen hohen Anteil an bankbezogenen Kapitalzuflüssen auf, die zu einem großen Teil zur Finanzierung der sehr hohen Leistungsbilanzdefizite verwendet wurden. Aktuell haben die baltischen Länder einerseits wegen ihrer fixen Wechselkurssysteme und andererseits wegen der fehlenden Möglichkeit, fiskalpolitische Impulse zu setzen, einen nur eingeschränkten wirtschaftspolitischen Handlungsspielraum. In Lettland ist die Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte besonders angespannt. Frühwarnindikatoren deuten zudem auf eine bevorstehende Währungskrise in Lettland hin. Eine Abwertung würde zwar die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Landes verbessern, aber aufgrund des hohen Anteils der in Fremdwährungen ausgereichten Kredite zu großen Kreditausfällen im Inland führen. Eine starke Abwertung könnte sich zudem negativ auf die beiden anderen baltischen Länder auswirken. Das Beispiel Baltikum zeigt, wie problematisch eine Entwicklungsstrategie ist, die in hohem Maß auf Kapitalzuflüsse aus dem Ausland setzt.Baltic countries, Currency crisis

Descripción del funcionamiento del sector eléctrico colombiano

Se ha considerado el comportamiento del sector eléctrico como un factor de gran trascendencia en desenvolvimiento de la economía de un país. Sin embargo, es notable el desconocimiento de algunas personas no especialistas es esta temática, de los conceptos básicos y de la organización intrínseca de este sector. Por lo tanto, resulta conveniente la realización de un artículo que informe de manera descriptiva sobre la naturaleza y funcionamiento del sector eléctrico en Colombia, como punto de partida para posteriores estudios y profundos análisis de temas relacionados con este sector. Entre los aspectos básicos que una persona debe conocer para estar en capacidad de entender y argumentar sobre el comportamiento del sector eléctrico en Colombia podemos citar, entre otros, los siguientes: antecedentes e historia del sector, agentes e instituciones del mercado, variables importantes en la toma de decisiones, contratos de corto y largo plazo, y finalmente algunos procedimientos que actualmente se encuentran en discusión, los cuales podrían cambiar el funcionamiento del Mercado de Energía Mayorista en Colombi

Descripción del funcionamiento del sector eléctrico colombiano

Se ha considerado el comportamiento del sector eléctrico como un factor de gran trascendencia en desenvolvimiento de la economía de un país. Sin embargo, es notable el desconocimiento de algunas personas no especialistas es esta temática, de los conceptos básicos y de la organización intrínseca de este sector. Por lo tanto, resulta conveniente la realización de un artículo que informe de manera descriptiva sobre la naturaleza y funcionamiento del sector eléctrico en Colombia, como punto de partida para posteriores estudios y profundos análisis de temas relacionados con este sector. Entre los aspectos básicos que una persona debe conocer para estar en capacidad de entender y argumentar sobre el comportamiento del sector eléctrico en Colombia podemos citar, entre otros, los siguientes: antecedentes e historia del sector, agentes e instituciones del mercado, variables importantes en la toma de decisiones, contratos de corto y largo plazo, y finalmente algunos procedimientos que actualmente se encuentran en discusión, los cuales podrían cambiar el funcionamiento del Mercado de Energía Mayorista en Colombi

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries