Predicting population change from models based on habitat availability and utilization.

The need to understand the impacts of land management for conservation, agriculture and disease prevention are driving demand for new predictive ecology approaches that can reliably forecast future changes in population size. Currently, although the link between habitat composition and animal population dynamics is undisputed, its function has not been quantified in a way that enables accurate prediction of population change in nature. Here, using 12 house sparrow colonies as a proof-of-concept, we apply recent theoretical advances to predict population growth or decline from detailed data on habitat composition and habitat selection. We show, for the first time, that statistical population models using derived covariates constructed from parametric descriptions of habitat composition and habitat selection can explain an impressive 92% of observed population variation. More importantly, they provide excellent predictive power under cross-validation, anticipating 81% of variability in population change. These models may be embedded in readily available generalized linear modelling frameworks, allowing their rapid application to field systems. Furthermore, we use optimization on our sample of sparrow colonies to demonstrate how such models, linking populations to their habitats, permit the design of practical and environmentally sound habitat manipulations for managing populations

Evaluating the potential for the environmentally sustainable control of foot and mouth disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that transfrontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface

How to increase earthquake and home fire preparedness: the fix-it intervention

Published, evaluated community intervention studies concerning natural hazard preparedness are rare. Most lack a rigorous methodology, thereby hampering the development of evidence-based interventions. This paper describes the rationale and methodology of a cross-cultural, longitudinal intervention study on earthquake and home fire preparedness, termed fix-it. The aim is to evaluate whether and how the intervention brings about behaviour change in the targeted communities in two coastal cities with high seismic risk: Seattle, USA and Izmir, Turkey. Participants are adult residents of these cities. The intervention group attends a 6-h workshop, which focuses on securing items in the household. The control group does not attend the workshop. All participants complete baseline and post-intervention, as well as 3- and 12-month follow-up assessments. The primary outcome measure is an observational measure of nine preparedness items for earthquake and fire in participants’ homes. This is evaluated alongside participants’ self-reports concerning their preparedness levels. Secondary outcomes are changes in levels of self-efficacy, perceived outcome, trust, corruption, empowerment, anxiety and social cohesion. Results from the first of the studies, conducted in Seattle in September 2015, indicate that while the fix-it intervention is effective, in the longer term, multi-hazard preparedness is increased by the mere act of going into people’s homes to observe their preparedness levels along with assessing self-reported preparedness and sociopsychological orientation towards natural hazards. This protocol and study aim to augment the empirical literature on natural hazard preparedness, informing national and international policy on delivery of evidence-based community interventions to promote multi-hazard preparedness in households

Risk reduction through community-based monitoring:the vigías of Tungurahua, Ecuador

Since 2000, a network of volunteers known as vigías has been engaged in community-based volcano monitoring, which involves local citizens in the collection of scientific data, around volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. This paper provides the first detailed description and analysis of this well-established initiative, drawing implications for volcanic risk reduction elsewhere. Based on 32 semi-structured interviews and other qualitative data collected in June and July 2013 with institutional actors and with vigías themselves, the paper documents the origins and development of the network, identifies factors that have sustained it, and analyses the ways in which it contributes to disaster risk reduction. Importantly, the case highlights how this community-based network performs multiple functions in reducing volcanic risk. The vigías network functions simultaneously as a source of observational data for scientists; as a communication channel for increasing community awareness, understanding of hazard processes and for enhancing preparedness; and as an early warning system for civil protection. Less tangible benefits with nonetheless material consequences include enhanced social capital – through the relationships and capabilities that are fostered – and improved trust between partners. Establishing trust-based relationships between citizens, the vigías, scientists and civil protection authorities is one important factor in the effectiveness and resilience of the network. Other factors discussed in the paper that have contributed to the longevity of the network include the motivations of the vigías, a clear and regular communication protocol, persistent volcanic activity, the efforts of key individuals, and examples of successful risk reduction attributable to the activities of the network. Lessons that can be learned about the potential of community-based monitoring for disaster risk reduction in other contexts are identified, including what the case tells us about the conditions that can affect the effectiveness of such initiatives and their resilience to changing circumstances

An explorative qualitative study to determine the footwear needs of workers in standing environments

Background: Many work places require standing for prolonged periods of time and are potentially damaging to health, with links to musculoskeletal disorders and acute trauma from workplace accidents. Footwear provides the only interaction between the body and the ground and therefore a potential means to impact musculoskeletal disorders. However, there is very limited research into the necessary design and development of footwear based on both the physical environmental constraints and the personal preference of the workers. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore workers needs for footwear in the ‘standing’ workplace in relation to MSD, symptoms, comfort and design. Method: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants from demanding work environments that require standing for high proportions of the working day. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the results and gain an exploratory understanding into the footwear needs of these workers. Results: Interviews revealed the environmental demands and a very high percentage of musculoskeletal disorders, including day to day discomfort and chronic problems. It was identified that when designing work footwear for standing environments, the functionality of the shoe for the environment must be addressed, the sensations and symptoms of the workers taken into account to encourage adherence and the decision influencers should be met to encourage initial footwear choice. Meeting all these criteria could encourage the use of footwear with the correct safety features and comfort. Development of the correct footwear and increased education regarding foot health and footwear choice could help to reduce or improve the effect of the high number of musculoskeletal disorders repeatedly recorded in jobs that require prolonged periods of standing. Conclusion: This study provides a unique insight into the footwear needs of some workers in environments that require prolonged standing. This user based enquiry has provided information which is important to workplace footwear design

AIDS-defining illnesses among patients with HIV in Singapore, 1985 to 2001: results from the Singapore HIV Observational Cohort Study (SHOCS)

BACKGROUND: The objective was to describe the causes of initial and overall AIDS-defining disease episodes among HIV patients in Singapore. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed of all adult patients seen at the national HIV referral center between 1985 and 2001. Data were extracted from the patients' records by ten trained healthcare workers. AIDS-defining conditions were established using predefined criteria. RESULTS: Among 1504 patients, 834 had experienced one or more AIDS-defining diseases. The most frequent causes of the initial AIDS-defining episode were Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (35.7%), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (22.7%) and herpes simplex (7.4%). In total 1742 AIDS-defining episodes occurred. The most frequent causes were Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (25.1%), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (16.2%) and cytomegalovirus retinitis (9.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The most frequent causes of AIDS-defining illnesses in Singapore are similar to those reported in the West, prior to the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy. Opportunistic infections remain the most frequent AIDS-defining illnesses

Revelations About Carotid Body Function Through its Pathological Role in Resistant Hypertension

Much recent attention has been given to the carotid body because of its potential role in cardiovascular disease states. One disease, neurogenic hypertension, characterised by excessive sympathetic activity, appears dependent on carotid body activity that may or may not be accompanied by sleep-disordered breathing. Herein, we review recent literature suggesting that the carotid body acquires tonicity in hypertension. We predict that carotid glomectomy will be a powerful way to temper excessive sympathetic discharge in diseases such as hypertension. We propose a model to explain that signalling from the ‘hypertensive’ carotid body is tonic, and hypothesise that there will be a sub-population of glomus cells that channel separately into reflex pathways controlling sympathetic motor outflows

Modulation of Neutrophil Function by a Secreted Mucinase of Escherichia coli O157∶H7

Escherichia coli O157∶H7 is a human enteric pathogen that causes hemorrhagic colitis which can progress to hemolytic uremic syndrome, a severe kidney disease with immune involvement. During infection, E. coli O157∶H7 secretes StcE, a metalloprotease that promotes the formation of attaching and effacing lesions and inhibits the complement cascade via cleavage of mucin-type glycoproteins. We found that StcE cleaved the mucin-like, immune cell-restricted glycoproteins CD43 and CD45 on the neutrophil surface and altered neutrophil function. Treatment of human neutrophils with StcE led to increased respiratory burst production and increased cell adhesion. StcE-treated neutrophils exhibited an elongated morphology with defective rear detachment and impaired migration, suggesting that removal of the anti-adhesive capability of CD43 by StcE impairs rear release. Use of zebrafish embryos to model neutrophil migration revealed that StcE induced neutrophil retention in the fin after tissue wounding, suggesting that StcE modulates neutrophil-mediated inflammation in vivo. Neutrophils are crucial innate effectors of the antibacterial immune response and can contribute to severe complications caused by infection with E. coli O157∶H7. Our data suggest that the StcE mucinase can play an immunomodulatory role by directly altering neutrophil function during infection. StcE may contribute to inflammation and tissue destruction by mediating inappropriate neutrophil adhesion and activation

Orexin-A and Orexin-B During the Postnatal Development of the Rat Brain

Orexin-A and orexin-B are hypothalamic neuropeptides isolated from a small group of neurons in the hypothalamus, which project their axons to all major parts of the central nervous system. Despite the extensive information about orexin expression and function at different parts of the nervous system in adults, data about the development and maturation of the orexin system in the brain are a bit contradictory and insufficient. A previous study has found expression of orexins in the hypothalamus after postnatal day 15 only, while others report orexins detection at embryonic stages of brain formation. In the present study, we investigated the distribution of orexin-A and orexin-B neuronal cell bodies and fibers in the brain at three different postnatal stages: 1-week-, 2-week-old and adult rats. By means of immunohistochemical techniques, we demonstrated that a small subset of cells in the lateral hypothalamus, and the perifornical and periventricular areas were orexin-A and orexin-B positive not only in 2-week-old and adult rats but also in 1-week-old animals. In addition, orexin-A and orexin-B expressing neuronal varicosities were found in many other brain regions. These results suggest that orexin-A and orexin-B play an important role in the early postnatal brain development. The widespread distribution of orexinergic projections through all these stages may imply an involvement of the two neurotransmitters in a large variety of physiological and behavioral processes also including higher brain functions like learning and memory