Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST) in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.Support for this research came from the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Enabling Adaptation Pathways project

Training response inhibition to food is associated with weight loss and reduced energy intake (article)

AcceptedNatalia S Lawrence University of Exeter Psychology Exeter Devon EX4 4QG United KingdomAccompanying dataset available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/17621Note to users: Uncorrected proofs are Articles in Press that have been copy edited and formatted, but have not been finalized yet. They still need to be proof-read and corrected by the author(s) and the text could still change before final publication. Although uncorrected proofs do not have all bibliographic details available yet, they can already be cited using the year of online publication and the DOI, as follows: author(s), article title, Publication (year), DOI. Please consult the journal's reference style for the exact appearance of these elements, abbreviation of journal names and use of punctuation. When the final article is assigned to an volumes/issues of the Publication, the Article in Press version will be removed and the final version will appear in the associated published volumes/issues of the Publication. The date the article was first made available online will be carried over.The majority of adults in the UK and US are overweight or obese due to multiple factors including excess energy intake. Training people to inhibit simple motor responses (key presses) to high-energy density food pictures reduces intake in laboratory studies. We examined whether online response inhibition training reduced real-world food consumption and weight in a community sample of adults who were predominantly overweight or obese (N = 83). Participants were allocated in a randomised, double-blind design to receive four 10-minute sessions of either active or control go/no-go training in which either high-energy density snack foods (active) or non-food stimuli (control) were associated with no-go signals. Participants’ weight, energy intake (calculated from 24-hour food diaries), daily snacking frequency and subjective food evaluations were measured for one week pre- and post-intervention. Participants also provided self-reported weight and monthly snacking frequency at pre-intervention screening, and one month and six months after completing the study. Participants in the active relative to control condition showed significant weight loss, reductions in daily energy intake and a reduction in rated liking of high-energy density (no-go) foods from the pre- to post-intervention week. There were no changes in self-reported daily snacking frequency. At longer-term follow-up, the active group showed significant reductions in self-reported weight at six months, whilst both groups reported significantly less snacking at one- and six-months. Excellent rates of adherence (97%) and positive feedback about the training suggest that this intervention is acceptable and has the potential to improve public health by reducing energy intake and overweight.National Institute for Health and Research Exeter Clinical Research FacilityWellcome TrustEuropean Research Counci

Online Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Treatment: Preliminary Results of the "OCD? Not Me!" Self-Guided Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Program for Young People

BACKGROUND: The development and evaluation of Internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) interventions provides a potential solution for current limitations in the acceptability, availability, and accessibility of mental health care for young people with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Preliminary results support the effectiveness of therapist-assisted iCBT for young people with OCD; however, no previous studies have examined the effectiveness of completely self-guided iCBT for OCD in young people. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the OCD? Not Me! program for reducing OCD-related psychopathology in young people (12-18 years). This program is an eight-stage, completely self-guided iCBT treatment for OCD, which is based on exposure and response prevention. METHODS: These data were early and preliminary results of a longer study in which an open trial design is being used to evaluate the effectiveness of the OCD? Not Me! PROGRAM: Participants were required to have at least subclinical levels of OCD to be offered the online program. Participants with moderate-high suicide/self-harm risk or symptoms of eating disorder or psychosis were not offered the program. OCD symptoms and severity were measured at pre- and posttest, and at the beginning of each stage of the program. Data was analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. RESULTS: A total of 334 people were screened for inclusion in the study, with 132 participants aged 12 to 18 years providing data for the final analysis. Participants showed significant reductions in OCD symptoms (P<.001) and severity (P<.001) between pre- and posttest. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary results suggest that fully automated iCBT holds promise as a way of increasing access to treatment for young people with OCD; however, further research needs to be conducted to replicate the results and to determine the feasibility of the program. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): ACTRN12613000152729; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363654 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/ 6iD7EDFqH)

Death and Emergency Readmission of Infants Discharged After Interventions for Congenital Heart Disease: A National Study of 7643 Infants to Inform Service Improvement.

Improvements in hospital-based care have reduced early mortality in congenital heart disease. Later adverse outcomes may be reducible by focusing on care at or after discharge. We aimed to identify risk factors for such events within 1 year of discharge after intervention in infancy and, separately, to identify subgroups that might benefit from different forms of intervention.Cardiac procedures performed in infants between 2005 and 2010 in England and Wales from the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit were linked to intensive care records. Among 7976 infants, 333 (4.2%) died before discharge. Of 7643 infants discharged alive, 246 (3.2%) died outside the hospital or after an unplanned readmission to intensive care (risk factors were age, weight-for-age, cardiac procedure, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, preprocedural clinical deterioration, prematurity, ethnicity, and duration of initial admission; c-statistic 0.78 [0.75-0.82]). Of the 7643, 514 (6.7%) died outside the hospital or had an unplanned intensive care readmission (same risk factors but with neurodevelopmental condition and acquired cardiac diagnosis and without preprocedural deterioration; c-statistic 0.78 [0.75-0.80]). Classification and regression tree analysis were used to identify 6 subgroups stratified by the level (3-24%) and nature of risk for death outside the hospital or unplanned intensive care readmission based on neurodevelopmental condition, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, and duration of initial admission. An additional 115 patients died after planned intensive care admission (typically following elective surgery).Adverse outcomes in the year after discharge are of similar magnitude to in-hospital mortality, warrant service improvements, and are not confined to diagnostic groups currently targeted with enhanced monitoring

Population mixing and incidence of cancers in adolescents and young adults between 1990 and 2013 in Yorkshire, UK

Purpose: Epidemiological evidence suggests a role for an infectious etiology for cancers in teenagers and young adults (TYAs). We investigated this by describing associations between infection transmission using the population mixing (PM) proxy and incidence of cancers in TYAs in Yorkshire, UK. Methods: We extracted cancer cases from the Yorkshire Specialist Register of Cancer in Children and Young People from 1990 to 2013 (n = 1929). Using multivariable Poisson regression models (adjusting for effects of deprivation and population density), we investigated whether PM was associated with cancer incidence. We included population mixing–population density interaction terms to examine for differences in effects of PM in urban and rural populations. Results: Nonsignificant IRRs were observed for leukemias (IRR 1.20, 95% CI 0.91–1.59), lymphomas (IRR 1.09, 95% CI 0.90–1.32), central nervous system tumors (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 0.80–1.40) and germ cell tumors (IRR 1.14, 95% CI 0.92–1.41). The association between PM and cancer incidence did not vary in urban and rural areas. Conclusions: Study results suggest PM is not associated with incidence of cancers among TYAs. This effect does not differ between rural and urban settings

Head injury from falls in children younger than 6 years of age

The risk of serious head injury (HI) from a fall in a young child is ill defined. The relationship between the object fallen from and prevalence of intracranial injury (ICI) or skull fracture is described. Method Cross-sectional study of HIs from falls in children (<6 years) admitted to UK hospitals, analysed according to the object fallen from and associated Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) or alert, voice, pain, unresponsive (AVPU) and CT scan results. Results Of 1775 cases ascertained (median age 18 months, 54.7% boys), 87% (1552) had a GCS=15/AVPU=alert. 19.3% (342) had a CT scan: 32% (110/342) were abnormal; equivalent to 5.9% of the overall population, 16.9% (58) had isolated skull fractures and 13.7% (47) had ICI (49% (23/47) had an associated skull fracture). The prevalence of ICI increased with neurological compromise; however, 12% of children with a GCS=15/AVPU=alert had ICI. When compared to falls from standing, falls from a person's arms (233 children (mean age 1 year)) had a significant relative OR for a skull fracture/ICI of 6.94 (95% CI 3.54 to 13.6), falls from a building (eg, window or attic) (mean age 3 years) OR 6.84 (95% CI 2.65 to 17.6) and from an infant or child product (mean age 21 months) OR 2.75 (95% CI 1.36 to 5.65). Conclusions Most HIs from a fall in these children admitted to hospital were minor. Infants, dropped from a carer's arms, those who fell from infant products, a window, wall or from an attic had the greatest chance of ICI or skull fracture. These data inform prevention and the assessment of the likelihood of serious injury when the object fallen from is known

Project20: Does continuity of care and community-based antenatal care improve maternal and neonatal birth outcomes for women with social risk factors? A prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Social factors associated with poor childbirth outcomes and experiences of maternity care include minority ethnicity, poverty, young motherhood, homelessness, difficulty speaking or understanding English, migrant or refugee status, domestic violence, mental illness and substance abuse. It is not known what specific aspects of maternity care work to improve the maternal and neonatal outcomes for these under-served, complex populations. METHODS: This study aimed to compare maternal and neonatal clinical birth outcomes for women with social risk factors accessing different models of maternity care. Quantitative data on pregnancy and birth outcome measures for 1000 women accessing standard care, group practice and specialist models of care at two large, inner-city maternity services were prospectively collected and analysed using multinominal regression. The level of continuity of care and place of antenatal care were used as independent variables to explore these potentially influential aspects of care. Outcomes adjusted for women's social and medical risk factors and the service attended. RESULTS: Women who received standard maternity care were significantly less likely to use water for pain relief in labour (RR 0.11, CI 0.02-0.62) and have skin to skin contact with their baby shortly after birth (RR 0.34, CI 0.14-0.80) compared to the specialist model of care. Antenatal care based in the hospital setting was associated with a significant increase in preterm birth (RR 2.38, CI 1.32-4.27) and low birth weight (RR 2.31, CI 1.24-4.32), and a decrease in induction of labour (RR 0.65, CI 0.45-0.95) compared to community-based antenatal care, this was despite women's medical risk factors. A subgroup analysis found that preterm birth was increased further for women with the highest level of social risk accessing hospital-based antenatal care (RR 3.11, CI1.49-6.50), demonstrating the protective nature of community-based antenatal care. CONCLUSIONS: This research highlights how community-based antenatal care, with a focus on continuity of carer reduced health inequalities and improved maternal and neonatal clinical outcomes for women with social risk factors. The findings support the current policy drive to increase continuity of midwife-led care, whilst adding that community-based care may further improve outcomes for women at increased risk of health inequalities. The relationship between community-based models of care and neonatal outcomes require further testing in future research. The identification of specific mechanisms such as help-seeking and reduced anxiety, to explain these findings are explored in a wider evaluation

Focus on vulnerable populations and promoting equity in health service utilization ––an analysis of visitor characteristics and service utilization of the Chinese community health service

Background Community health service in China is designed to provide a convenient and affordable primary health service for the city residents, and to promote health equity. Based on data from a large national study of 35 cities across China, we examined the characteristics of the patients and the utilization of community health institutions (CHIs), and assessed the role of community health service in promoting equity in health service utilization for community residents. Methods Multistage sampling method was applied to select 35 cities in China. Four CHIs were randomly chosen in every district of the 35 cities. A total of 88,482 visitors to the selected CHIs were investigated by using intercept survey method at the exit of the CHIs in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze the main characteristics (gender, age, and income) of the CHI visitors, and the results were compared with that from the National Health Services Survey (NHSS, including CHIs and higher levels of hospitals). We also analyzed the service utilization and the satisfactions of the CHI visitors. Results The proportions of the children (2.4%) and the elderly (about 22.7%) were lower in our survey than those in NHSS (9.8% and 38.8% respectively). The proportion of the low-income group (26.4%) was apparently higher than that in NHSS (12.5%). The children group had the lowest satisfaction with the CHIs than other age groups. The satisfaction of the low-income visitors was slightly higher than that of the higher-income visitors. The utilization rate of public health services was low in CHIs. Conclusions The CHIs in China appears to fulfill the public health target of uptake by vulnerable populations, and may play an important role in promoting equity in health service utilization. However, services for children and the elderly should be strengthened