Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator

Metabolism during anaesthesia and recovery in colic and healthy horses: a microdialysis study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Muscle metabolism in horses has been studied mainly by analysis of substances in blood or plasma and muscle biopsy specimens. By using microdialysis, real-time monitoring of the metabolic events in local tissue with a minimum of trauma is possible. There is limited information about muscle metabolism in the early recovery period after anaesthesia in horses and especially in the colic horse. The aims were to evaluate the microdialysis technique as a complement to plasma analysis and to study the concentration changes in lactate, pyruvate, glucose, glycerol, and urea during anaesthesia and in the recovery period in colic horses undergoing abdominal surgery and in healthy horses not subjected to surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten healthy university-owned horses given anaesthesia alone and ten client-owned colic horses subjected to emergency abdominal surgery were anaesthetised for a mean (range) of 230 min (193–273) and 208 min (145–300) respectively. Venous blood samples were taken before anaesthesia. Venous blood sampling and microdialysis in the gluteal muscle were performed during anaesthesia and until 24 h after anaesthesia. Temporal changes and differences between groups were analysed with an ANOVA for repeated measures followed by Tukey Post Hoc test or Planned Comparisons.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Lactate, glucose and urea, in both dialysate and plasma, were higher in the colic horses than in the healthy horses for several hours after recovery to standing. In the colic horses, lactate, glucose, and urea in dialysate, and lactate in plasma increased during the attempts to stand. The lactate-to-pyruvate ratio was initially high in sampled colic horses but decreased over time. In the colic horses, dialysate glycerol concentrations varied considerably whereas in the healthy horses, dialysate glycerol was elevated during anaesthesia but decreased after standing. In both groups, lactate concentration was higher in dialysate than in plasma. The correspondence between dialysate and plasma concentrations of glucose, urea and glycerol varied.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Microdialysis proved to be suitable in the clinical setting for monitoring of the metabolic events during anaesthesia and recovery. It was possible with this technique to show greater muscle metabolic alterations in the colic horses compared to the healthy horses in response to regaining the standing position.</p

Demographic and circumstantial accounts of burn mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, 2001-2004: An observational register based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Burns are a persisting public health problem in low- and middle-income countries; however, epidemiologic data for these settings is scarce. South Africa is no exception although there is an emerging knowledge base, especially for paediatric burns. The current study describes the epidemiology of burn mortality across the lifespan in Cape Town (2.9 million inhabitants in 2001), one of the six South African metropolitan centres.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The distribution of burn mortality across socio-demographic groups and also their circumstances of occurrence were investigated using four year (2001 to 2004) surveillance data from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (n = 1024 cases).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Burn mortality occurred at a rate of 7.9 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI: 7.3-8.3). Males sustained fatal rates 2.2 times more than that for females (p < 0.001), with rates significantly higher in the 25 to 38 and 39 to 50 age groups than at other ages (p < 0.001). The greatest difference between male and female deaths was observed in the 25 to 38 year age group, when almost three male deaths occurred for every female one. The vast majority of fatal burns were registered as accidental and occurred in the home, either over the cold and wet months or during recreational periods over weekends and across the year. Alcohol intoxication was reported for the majority of those adults whose alcohol blood levels were tested (i.e. 52.6% of cases aged 16+ years).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Besides paediatric burns, the high prevalence and circumstances of occurrence of burns among middle age men are a source of concern. There are reasons to believe that this over-representation is a reflection of detrimental living conditions, life-style and poor socio-economic status. It is recommended that there be greater prioritisation of prevention activities that involve the control or management of kerosene heat sources, the provision of alternatives to flammable housing materials, and the implementation of strategies to reduce harmful drinking practices.</p

Robust antibody responses in 70-80-year-olds 3 weeks after the first or second doses of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, United Kingdom, January to February 2021.

Sera were collected from 185 adults aged ≥ 70 years in London to evaluate the immune response to COVID-19 vaccines. A single dose of Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine resulted in > 94% seropositivity after 3 weeks in naïve individuals using the Roche Spike antibody assay, while two doses produced very high spike antibody levels, significantly higher than convalescent sera from mild-to-moderate PCR-confirmed adult cases. Our findings support the United Kingdom's approach of prioritising the first dose and delaying the second dose of COVID-19 vaccine

Effective-Range Expansion of the Neutron-Deuteron Scattering Studied by a Quark-Model Nonlocal Gaussian Potential

The S-wave effective range parameters of the neutron-deuteron (nd) scattering are derived in the Faddeev formalism, using a nonlocal Gaussian potential based on the quark-model baryon-baryon interaction fss2. The spin-doublet low-energy eigenphase shift is sufficiently attractive to reproduce predictions by the AV18 plus Urbana three-nucleon force, yielding the observed value of the doublet scattering length and the correct differential cross sections below the deuteron breakup threshold. This conclusion is consistent with the previous result for the triton binding energy, which is nearly reproduced by fss2 without reinforcing it with the three-nucleon force.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures and 6 tables, submitted to Prog. Theor. Phy

Magnetic resonance imaging in patients with meningitis induced hearing loss

The aim of this multicentre study was to compare T1 with T2 weighted MRI scans of the labyrinth after meningitis and to investigate whether waiting with scanning improved the reliability of diagnosing an ongoing process such as cochlear osteogenesis. Forty-five patients were included who suffered from meningitis induced hearing loss (radiological imaging <1 year after meningitis). Twenty-one gadolinium enhanced T1 and 45 T2 weighted MRI scans were scored by two radiologists regarding the condition of the labyrinth. These radiological observations were compared with the condition of the cochlea as described during cochlear implantation. A higher percentage of agreement with surgery was found for T2 (both radiologists 73%) than for T1 weighted MRI scans (radiologist 1: 62%, radiologist 2: 67%), but this difference is not significant. There was no significant difference between early (0–3 months) and late (>3 months) scanning, showing that radiological imaging soon after meningitis allows early diagnosis without suffering from a lower agreement with surgical findings

Aripiprazole in the Maintenance Treatment of Bipolar Disorder: A Critical Review of the Evidence and Its Dissemination into the Scientific Literature

A systematic search of the literature reveals limited evidence to support use of aripiprazole, a second-generation antipsychotic medication, in maintenance therapy of bipolar disorder, despite widespread use

Early economic evaluation to identify the necessary test characteristics of a new typhoid test to be cost-effective in Ghana

Background In Ghana, there are issues with the diagnosis of typhoid fever; these include delays in diagnosis, concerns about the accuracy of current tests, and lack of availability. These issues highlight the need for the development of a rapid, accurate, and easily accessible diagnostic test. The aim of this study was to conduct an early economic analysis of a hypothetical rapid test for typhoid fever diagnosis in Ghana and identify the necessary characteristics of the test for it to be cost effective in Ghana. Methods An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree parameterized with secondary data sources, with reasonable assumptions made for unknown parameters. The patient population considered is individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of typhoid fever at a healthcare facility in Ghana; a time horizon of 180 days and the Ghanaian national health service perspective were adopted for the analysis. Extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken, including headroom analysis. Results The results here show that for a hypothetical test to perform better than the existing test (Widal) in terms of QALYs gained and cost effectiveness, it is necessary for it to have a high specificity (at least 70%) and should not be priced more than US$4. The overall value of conducting research to reduce uncertainty (over 5 years) is US$3287. Conclusion The analysis shows the potential for the hypothetical test to replace the Widal test and the market potential of developing a new test in the Ghanaian setting