Trends in cyclones in the high-latitude North Atlantic during 1979-2016

We report an increase in winter (DJF) cyclone densities in the areas around Svalbard and in northwestern Barents Sea and a decrease in cyclone densities in southeastern Barents Sea during 1979-2016. Despite high interannual variability, the trends are significant at the 90% confidence level. The changes appear as a result of a shift into a more meridional winter storm track in the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with a positive trend in the Scandinavian Pattern. A significant decrease in the Brunt-Vaisala frequency east of Svalbard and a significant increase in the Eady Growth Rate north of Svalbard indicate increased baroclinicity, favouring enhanced cyclone activity in these regions. For the first time, we apply composite analysis to explicitly address regional consequences of these wintertime changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic. We find a tendency toward a warmer and more moist atmospheric state in the Barents Sea and over Svalbard with increased cyclone activity around Svalbard.Peer reviewe

Efficacy of language intervention in the early years

Background: Oral language skills in the preschool and early school years are critical to educational success and provide the foundations for the later development of reading comprehension. Methods: In a randomized controlled trial, 180 children from 15 UK nursery schools (n = 12 from each setting; Mage = 4;0) were randomly allocated to receive a 30-week oral language intervention or to a waiting control group. Children in the intervention group received 30 weeks of oral language intervention, beginning in nursery (preschool), in three group sessions per week, continuing with daily sessions on transition to Reception class (pre-Year 1). The intervention was delivered by nursery staff and teaching assistants trained and supported by the research team. Following screening, children were assessed preintervention, following completion of the intervention and after a 6-month delay. Results: Children in the intervention group showed significantly better performance on measures of oral language and spoken narrative skills than children in the waiting control group immediately after the 30 week intervention and after a 6 month delay. Gains in word-level literacy skills were weaker, though clear improvements were observed on measures of phonological awareness. Importantly, improvements in oral language skills generalized to a standardized measure of reading comprehension at maintenance test. Conclusions: Early intervention for children with oral language difficulties is effective and can successfully support the skills, which underpin reading comprehensio

Buoyancy Effects on Upward Brine Displacement Caused by CO2 Injection

Upward displacement of brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from CO{sub 2} injection for geologic carbon sequestration may occur through improperly sealed abandoned wells, through permeable faults, or through permeable channels between pinch-outs of shale formations. The concern about upward brine flow is that, upon intrusion into aquifers containing groundwater resources, the brine may degrade groundwater. Because both salinity and temperature increase with depth in sedimentary basins, upward displacement of brine involves lifting fluid that is saline but also warm into shallower regions that contain fresher, cooler water. We have carried out dynamic simulations using TOUGH2/EOS7 of upward displacement of warm, salty water into cooler, fresher aquifers in a highly idealized two-dimensional model consisting of a vertical conduit (representing a well or permeable fault) connecting a deep and a shallow reservoir. Our simulations show that for small pressure increases and/or high-salinity-gradient cases, brine is pushed up the conduit to a new static steady-state equilibrium. On the other hand, if the pressure rise is large enough that brine is pushed up the conduit and into the overlying upper aquifer, flow may be sustained if the dense brine is allowed to spread laterally. In this scenario, dense brine only contacts the lower-most region of the upper aquifer. In a hypothetical case in which strong cooling of the dense brine occurs in the upper reservoir, the brine becomes sufficiently dense that it flows back down into the deeper reservoir from where it came. The brine then heats again in the lower aquifer and moves back up the conduit to repeat the cycle. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions and reveal the character and period of oscillatory solutions. Such oscillatory solutions are mostly a curiosity rather than an expected natural phenomenon because in nature the geothermal gradient prevents the cooling in the upper aquifer that occurs in the model. The expected effect of upward brine displacement is either establishment of a new hydrostatic equilibrium or sustained upward flux into the bottom-most region of the upper aquifer

Détection sismique des avalanches : conception et validation d'un système pré-opérationnel

For a few years the Centre d'Etudes de la Neige (Snow Research Center) in Grenoble has been studying the feasibility of the seismic detection of avalanches (SDA). The SDA is aiming to produce a real-time estimation of the avalanche activity of a massif from three-component seismic signals. An analysis and decision system, using fuzzy logic, has been built in order to discriminate avalanche signals from other types of signals. A few experimental results for winter 94-95 are presented. They show the interest of the SDA for operational applications. / Depuis quelques années le Centre d'Etudes de la Neige de Grenoble (CEN) a mis en place un programme de détection sismique des avalanches (DSA). Dans un cadre opérationnel, la DSA est susceptible de fournir en temps réel une estimation de l'activité avalancheuse au sein d'un massif à partir d'enregistrements sismiques à trois composantes. Un système d'analyse-expertise à logique floue a été conçu afin de discriminer les signaux d'avalanches des autres types de signaux. A travers quelques résultats obtenus lors de l'hiver 94-95 nous montrons l'intérêt de la DSA pour des applications opérationnelles concrètes