The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - simulated with rational expectations

The model presented here is a New estimated medium-scale Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenarios analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elastiticites of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions. We assume agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimization problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depends strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible. JEL Classification: C51, C6, E5Macro model, open-economy macroeconomics, Rational Expectations

Receptores tirosina quinasa en cáncer

Máster Universitario en Biología y Clínica del Cáncer: Programa, Objetivos y Metodología.Peer Reviewe

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the Euro area: NMCM - with Boundedly Rational Learning Expectations*

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep parameters of their own optimizing frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterization of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modeled as stationary ARMA(p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality we show this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioral equations of different optimizing agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find that some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods.

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA (p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative mis-specified MSVs. Using a new Multi-country Euro area Model with Boundedly Estimated Rationality we show this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioral equations of different optimizing agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agent form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find that some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods. JEL Classification: C51, D83, D84, E17, E32bounded rationality, Expectation, heterogeneity, imperfect information, Learning, macro modelling, open-economy macroeconomics

Letter to the editor: What about incorporating selenium in the therapeutic regimen of SARS-COV-2?

[ES] Carta al editor en la que se expresan las ventajas de utilizar selenio en los tratamientos terapéuticos del SARS-CoV-2

Estrategias de recuerdo y comprensión de un texto de física

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de un estudio indagatorio, aplicado a estudiantes de secundaria, sobre reconocimiento de la estructura de nivel superior que utilizan al ordenar un texto de física. Además se evalúa la comprensión lectora y la calidad de la información que recuerdan. El estudio se ha concretado a través del análisis de actividades realizadas por los estudiantes consistentes en: ordenar tarjetas en que se dividió el texto de física, colocar título y elaborar producciones de recuerdo inmediato y demorado del mismo. También se analiza la influencia que han tenido las señalizaciones del texto original en estas producciones.In this paper the results of an inquiring study, made with secondary students, about the identification of the top-level structure they use when ordering a Physics text are presented. Besides, the level of reading comprehension and the quality of the information that the students remember are evaluated. The study was carried out through the analysis of the activities proposed to the students which consisted in: ordering the cards of a fragmented physics text, giving a title to it and writing the immediate and subsequent recall of the text. The influence of the markers of the original text in the students productions is also analyzed

Ionic events induced by epidermal growth factor. Evidence that hyperpolarization and stimulated cation influx play a role in the stimulation of cell growth.

Charybdotoxin, a blocker of K+ channels, and the imidazole drug SC38249, a blocker of both voltage- and second messenger-operated Ca2+ channels, were employed in mouse NIH-3T3 fibroblasts overexpressing the epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor 1) to characterize the ionic events activated by EGF; and 2) to establish the role of those events in cell growth. The [Ca2+]i response by EGF was little changed by charybdotoxin while the parallel hyperpolarization was inhibited in a dose-dependent manner. At high toxin concentrations (greater than 3 x 10(-8) M), the effect of EGF on membrane potential was turned into a persistent depolarization sustained by both Na+ and Ca2+. Pretreatment with 10 microM SC38249 induced only minor changes of the intracellular Ca2+ release by EGF (the process responsible for the initial phase of the [Ca2+]i and membrane potential responses) and blocked the persistent, second phase [Ca2+]i and the hyperpolarization responses, both dependent on Ca2+ influx, as well as the depolarization in the charybdotoxin-pretreated cells. Long term (up to 2-day) treatment with either charybdotoxin or SC38249 failed to affect the viability and growth of unstimulated EGFR-T17 cells. Moreover, in these cells, the ionic responses to EGF were restored after a 30-min incubation in fresh medium. In contrast, growth stimulated by EGF was inhibited, moderately (-20%) by charybdotoxin and markedly (-60%) by SC38249. These results indicate for the first time that both hyperpolarization and, especially, the persistent increase of [Ca2+]i sustained by Ca2+ influx play a role in the activity of EGF, ultimately cooperating with other intracellular events in mitogenesis

Androgen-independent prostate cancer cells circumvent EGFR inhibition by overexpression of alternative HER receptors and ligands

et al.The deregulation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) pathway plays a major role in the pathogenesis of prostate cancer (PCa). However, therapies targeting EGFR have demonstrated limited effectiveness in PCa. A potential mechanism to overcome EGFR blockade in cancer cells is the autocrine activation of alternative receptors of the human EGFR (HER) family through the overexpression of the HER receptors and ligands. In the present study, we were interested in analyzing if this intrinsic resistance mechanism might contribute to the inefficacy of EGFR inhibitors in PCa. To this end, we selected two androgen-independent human prostate carcinoma cell lines (DU145 and PC3) and established DU145 erlotinib-resistant cells (DUErR). Cells were treated with three EGFR inhibitors (cetuximab, gefinitib and erlotinib) and the sensitivity to each treatment was assessed. The gene expression of the four EGFR/HER receptors and seven ligands of the HER family was analyzed by real-time PCR prior to and after each treatment. The receptors expression and activation were further characterized by flow cytometry and western blot analysis. EGFR inhibition rapidly induced enhanced gene expression of the EGF, betacellulin and neuregulin-1 ligands along with HER2, HER3 and HER4 receptors in the DU145 cells. In contrast, slight changes were observed in the PC3 cells, which are defective in the phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) tumor suppressor gene. In the erlotinib-resistant DUErR cells, the expression of HER2 and HER3 was increased at mRNA and protein levels together with neuregulin-1, leading to enhanced HER3 phosphorylation and the activation of the downstream PI3K/Akt survival pathway. HER3 blockage by a monoclonal antibody restored the cytostatic activity of erlotinib in DUErR cells. Our results confirm that the overexpression and autocrine activation of HER3 play a key role in mediating the resistance to EGFR inhibitors in androgen-independent PCa cells.We acknowledge the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants RD06/0020/0041, RD06/0020/0028), Universitat de Girona (grant PUG2007A/10) and Generalitat de Catalunya (grant 2009SGR208) for providing funding for this project. D.C.S. and C.P. acknowledge their fellowships from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (grant AP2007-01953) and Universitat de Girona (grant BR08/19), respectivelyPeer Reviewe

El resumen y la producción de recuerdo para verificar la comprensión lectora de un texto de ciencias

En el presente trabajo pretendamos indagar si alumnos de nivel medio han comprendido un texto de Ciencias valiéndonos de dos tareas que les encomendamos. La primera fue la elaboración de un resumen del mismo. Analizamos en estas producciones si logran concretar un nuevo texto como una modificación que guarda relación con el texto fuente, que nos permita confirmar si hubo comprensión global. La segunda tarea, fue una producción de recuerdo demorado en la cual evaluamos la información que asimilaron