Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: An analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI)

Background: Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30).Results: There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by 65 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size 65 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size 65 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001).Conclusions: Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery. \ua9 2014 Rizzi et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

The role of baseline HIV-1 RNA, drug resistance, and regimen type as determinants of response to first-line antiretroviral therapy

The factors influencing virological response to first-line combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) in an Italian cohort of HIV-1-infected patients were examined. Eligible patients were those enrolled in a national prospective observational cohort (Antiretroviral Resistance Cohort Analysis), starting first-line cART between 2001 and 2011 and who had at least one follow-up of HIV-1 RNA. The primary endpoint was virological success, defined as the first viral load 100,000 copies/ml, virologic success was only associated with the use of integrase inhibitors in the first cART regimen. Independent predictors of immunological success were baseline CD4+ cell count and wGSS <3. High baseline HIV-1 RNA, predicted activity of the first-line regimen based on genotypic resistance testing, gender, and use of new agents were found to predict time to achieve virological success. The type of initial nucleoside analog backbone was not found to predict virological response

Detection of drug resistance mutations at low plasma HIV-1 RNA load in a European multicentre cohort study

Guidelines indicate a plasma HIV-1 RNA load of 500-1000 copies/mL as the minimal threshold for antiretroviral drug resistance testing. Resistance testing at lower viral load levels may be useful to guide timely treatment switches, although data on the clinical utility of this remain limited. We report here the influence of viral load levels on the probability of detecting drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and other mutations by routine genotypic testing in a large multicentre European cohort, with a focus on tests performed at a viral load <1000 copies/mL