Simulating the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on farm productivity and income: A bioeconomic analysis

This study applied at the farm level in Tunisia aims at understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and income in Africa. Possible future climates are presented through different climate scenarios. The latter combines three levels of increasing temperature (1�centigrade (C), 2�C, and 3�C) with two levels of decreasing precipitation (10 and 20 percent) and a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (350 to 700 parts per million). The farming system of production is replicated through a bioeconomic model; that is, one that couples a cropping system model and an economic model run sequentially. The study reveals that land productivity and farm income decline under climate change. Depending on the changes in precipitation, farm productivity falls by 15 to 20 percent and farm income 5 to 20 percent when the temperature increases moderately (1�C). As the climate warms up (2�C and 3�C), farm productivity and income are severely affected, by 35 to 55 percent and 45 to 70 percent, respectively. When simple adaptation strategies based on new management techniques for hard wheat are tested - more irrigation and fertilization - compensations for the negative effects of climate change are found to be worthwhile only for a 1�C increase in temperature. However, the success of adaptation strategies highly depends on the availability of more water and lower additional cost to mobilize them at the farm level.adaptation strategies, Bioeconomic modeling, Agriculture, Climate change, farm income, productivity,

Measuring fishing dependency using Occupational Alternative Ratio- an application to Shetland whitefish industry

In this paper Occupational Alternative Ratios (OAR) are applied to the 2003 employment survey data from Shetland to measure dependency on whitefish in individual communities as an alternative to traditional measures of fishing dependency, such as fishing employment and fisheries contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The OAR measure summarises the potential impact that the size of the whitefish industry has upon the supply of labour for alternative occupations within the local economy. The results of the model indicate that Whalsay is the most whitefish dependent community, followed by Scalloway and Skerries while the least whitefish dependent community is West Mainland. The OAR indices depict a clear distinction between the most and least dependent communities, and historical attachment to demersal fishing support these differences. The use of OARs to measure and rank dependency provides a new way to conceptualise the significance of fishing to communities and their economies. The results of the study also show that the OAR route to measuring fisheries dependency could be useful for policy makers and managers to make informed decisions, formulate appropriate policies on resource use and contribute effectively to wider processes (e.g. international negotiations of fisheries resources).Labor and Human Capital, Livestock Production/Industries,

Measuring Oligopsony Power of UK Salmon Retailers

A significant increase of concentration in the UK salmon retail subsector has heightened concerns about retail firms’ ability to exercise market power in the purchase of supplies (oligopsony power). To assess the extent to which retail firms have exercised oligopsony power, we develop a dynamic error correction translog profit function to model the behaviour of retailers in the input market for smoke, fillet, and whole salmon. Initial estimates indicated violations of monotonicity and convexity conditions as implied by economic theory. In order to ameliorate the problem, a Bayesian technique was used to impose inequality restrictions to correct the anomaly. The final estimated indices of market power in the models were low and statistically significant but sufficiently closer to the perfect competition benchmark indicating that retailers as a whole behaved competitively during much of the period covered by this studySalmon, market power, error correction model, translog profit function, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, JEL-I, JEL-J,

Measuring Oligopsony Power of UK Salmon Retailers

A significant increase of concentration in the UK salmon retail subsector has heightened concerns about retail firms’ ability to exercise market power in the purchase of supplies (oligopsony power). To assess the extent to which retail firms have exercised oligopsony power, we develop a dynamic error correction translog profit function to model the behaviour of retailers in the input market for smoke, fillet and whole salmon. Initial estimates indicated violations of monotonicity and convexity conditions as implied by economic theory. In order to ameliorate the problem, a Bayesian technique was used to impose inequality restrictions to correct the anomaly. The final estimated indices of market power in the models were low and statistically significant but sufficiently closer to the perfect competition benchmark to indicate that retailers as a whole behaved competitively during much of the period covered by this study.Salmon, market power, error correction model, translog profit function, Food Security and Poverty, JEL-I, JEL-J,

DEMAND INTERACTION BETWEEN FARMED SALMON AND WILD CAUGHT FISH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Demand relationships between salmon and a number of wild-caught whitefish and shellfish species using both single equation models and linearised AIDS system framework. The system is well represented although autocorrelation were found in both approaches but this is less of a problem in the systems approach. A cautious interpretation of the results indicated that salmon had a long-run market relationship with the whitefish species of cod, monkfish, saithe, whiting and plaice and with the shellfish species of mussels, nephrops, scallops and shrimp. These groups contain the main seafood species consumed within the United Kingdom, and therefore should include most potential substitutes for salmon.Demand, salmon, whitefish, shellfish, AIDS, elasticities, Demand and Price Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C32, C22, D12,

Measuring Market Power in the UK Retail Salmon Industry

This paper presents an investigation into the market structure for three product types of salmon (smoked, fresh and whole salmon) in the UK retail market. Evidence of the potential for market power and pricing conduct is analysed using structural simultaneous system equations based on the Bresnahan (1982) model. The importance of the retail market is recognised given the dominance of supermarket chains which accounted for £1.6 billion sales of seafood and the share of about 87% of all seafood retail sales in 2004 as compared with only 16% in 1988. The results indicate that the system is well represented by the models and that the market is competitive for fresh fillets and whole salmon but retailers exert some market power for smoked salmon. The hypothesis that market power is the same for all three products in the study was rejected; further indicating that retailers may be exercising market power for smoked salmon.Market power, Error correction model, Dynamic demand systems, salmon, Marketing, JEL-1, JEL-J,

THE CHANGING NATURE OF UK FISH RETAILING

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,