Scenario-based assessment of buildings' damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

Abstract. Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt with regards to population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has very important tourist activity. Historical records indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the worst-case credible tsunami scenario analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out in two sea level conditions (mean sea level and maximum high-tide sea level) by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the framework of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila, over 12 000 (13 400 in the case of maximum high tide) buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could sustain damaging consequences, ranging from critical damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2, resulting in more than 150 000 (165 000 in the case of maximum high tide) residents being exposed

Simulation of tsunamis induced by volcanic activity in the Gulf of Naples (Italy)

International audienceThe paper explores the potential of tsunami generation by pyroclastic flows travelling down the flank of the volcano Vesuvius that is found south of Naples in Italy. The eruption history of Vesuvius shows that it is characterised by large explosive eruptions of plinian or subplinian type during which large volume of pyroclastic flows can be produced. The most remarkable examples of such eruptions occurred in 79 AD and in 1631 and were catastrophic. Presently Vesuvius is in a repose time that, according to volcanologists, could be interrupted by a large eruption, and consequently proper plans of preparedness and emergency management have been devised by civil authorities based on a scenario envisaging a large eruption. Recently, numerical models of magma ascent and of eruptive column formation and collapse have been published for the Vesuvius volcano, and propagation of pyroclastic flows down the slope of the volcanic edifice up to the close shoreline have been computed. These flows can reach the sea in the Gulf of Naples: the denser slow part will enter the waters, while the lighter and faster part of the flow can travel on the water surface exerting a pressure on it. This paper studies the tsunami produced by the pressure pulse associated with the transit of the low-density phase of the pyroclastic flow on the sea surface by means of numerical simulations. The study is divided into two parts. First the hydrodynamic characteristics of the Gulf of Naples as regards the propagation of long waves are analysed by studying the waves radiating from a source that is a static initial depression of the sea level localised within the gulf. Then the tsunami produced by a pressure pulse moving from the Vesuvius toward the open sea is simulated: the forcing pulse features are derived from the recent studies on Vesuvian pyroclastic flows in the literature. The tsunami resulting from the computations is a perturbation involving the whole Gulf of Naples, but it is negligible outside, and persists within the gulf long after the transit of the excitation pulse. The size of the tsunami is modest. The largest calculated oscillations are found along the innermost coasts of the gulf at Naples and at Castellammare. The main conclusion of the study is that the light component of the pyroclastic flows produced by future large eruptions of Vesuvius are not expected to set up catastrophic tsunamis

Tsunami generation in Stromboli island and impact on the south-east Tyrrhenian coasts

Stromboli is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aeolian island arc in south Tyrrhenian sea, Italy. In the last 100 years the most relevant volcanic eruptions have beenaccompanied by local tsunamis, that have caused damage and casualties. In some cases the direct mechanism of local tsunami generation is clear, i.e. pyroclastic flows entering the sea. In some others it is uncertain and some speculation concerning the collapse of the eruptive column on the sea surface or the failure of some underwater mass can be made. But the ordinary activity is unlikely to generate large regional tsunamis. These can be produced by the lateral collapse of the volcanic cone that geomorphological and volcanological&nbsp; investigations have proven to have occurred repeatedly in the recent history of the volcano, with return period in the order of some thousands of years. The last episode is dated to less than 5 ka BP, and left the Sciara del Fuoco scar on the north-west flank of Stromboli.</p> <p style='line-height: 20px;'>Based on previous studies, the possible collapse of the nortwestern sector of Stromboli and the consequent generation and propagation of a tsunami are explored. The impact on Stromboli and on the other islands of the Aeolian archipelago is estimated, as well as the impact on the coast of Sicily and the Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria. The simulation is carried out by means of a double model: a Lagrangian block model to compute the motion of the collapsing mass, and a finite-element hydrodynamic model to compute the evolution of the tsunami. Two distinct tsunami simulations are carried out, one on a very fine grid around the source region to evaluate the tsunami near Stromboli, and one utilising a coarser grid covering the whole south-east Tyrrhenian sea to compute the tsunami propagation toward Sicily and Calabria. It is found that a huge-volume collapse of the north-western flank of the Stromboli cone is capable of producing a regional tsunami which is catastrophic at the source and devastating on long stretches of Tyrrhenian coasts, but particularly in the neighbouring islands of Panarea and Salina, and along the Calabria coasts around Capo Vaticano

Bayesian Joint Modeling of Multiple Brain Functional Networks

Investigating the similarity and changes in brain networks under different mental conditions has become increasingly important in neuroscience research. A standard separate estimation strategy fails to pool information across networks and hence has reduced estimation accuracy and power to detect between-network differences. Motivated by an fMRI Stroop task experiment that involves multiple related tasks, we develop an integrative Bayesian approach for jointly modeling multiple brain networks that provides a systematic inferential framework for network comparisons. The proposed approach explicitly models shared and differential patterns via flexible Dirichlet process-based priors on edge probabilities. Conditional on edges, the connection strengths are modeled via Bayesian spike-and-slab prior on the precision matrix off-diagonals. Numerical simulations illustrate that the proposed approach has increased power to detect true differential edges while providing adequate control on false positives and achieves greater network estimation accuracy compared to existing methods. The Stroop task data analysis reveals greater connectivity differences between task and fixation that are concentrated in brain regions previously identified as differentially activated in Stroop task, and more nuanced connectivity differences between exertion and relaxed task. In contrast, penalized modeling approaches involving computationally burdensome permutation tests reveal negligible network differences between conditions that seem biologically implausible. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement

Short-term mindfulness practice attenuates reward prediction errors signals in the brain

Activity changes in dopaminergic neurons encode the ongoing discrepancy between expected and actual value of a stimulus, providing a teaching signal for a reward prediction process. Previous work comparing a cohort of long-term Zen meditators to controls demonstrated an attenuation of reward prediction signals to appetitive reward in the striatum. Using a cross-commodity design encompassing primary- and secondary-reward conditioning experiments, the present study asks the question of whether reward prediction signals are causally altered by mindfulness training in naive subjects. Volunteers were randomly assigned to 8 weeks of mindfulness training (MT), active control training (CT), or a one-time mindfulness induction group (MI). We observed a decreased response to positive prediction errors in the putamen in the MT group compared to CT using both a primary and a secondary-reward experiment. Furthermore, the posterior insula showed greater activation to primary rewards, independently of their predictability, in the MT group, relative to CT and MI group. These results support the notion that increased attention to the present moment and its interoceptive features - a core component of mindfulness practice - may reduce predictability effects in reward processing, without dampening (in fact, enhancing) the response to the actual delivery of the stimulus

Repensando algunas intervenciones urbanas en la zona sur de Rosario durante los años noventa.

El presente trabajo investiga los canales de diálogo y negociación que se generaron entre la ciudadanía y la municipalidad para la planificación de nuevos espacios públicos en la zona sur de Rosario, posteriores a los saqueos de 1989. No se estudiarán los saqueos como un acontecimiento en sí mismo, más bien, se detectará su influencia en la nueva gestión urbana de la municipalidad en el área. Para ello, se reseñarán los planteos de las nuevas geografías críticasque ampliarán los recorridos bibliográficos acerca de la participación de los ciudadanos en la planificación urbana. Desde estos postulados se analizarán los aportes ciudadanos a las intervenciones en el barrio de Saladillo. Por un lado, se interrogará la construcción de losespacios públicos, Parque del Mercado y Piletas del Saladillo, junto a la representación de dichos predios como legado patrimonial urbano. Por otro, se reseñará la participación de los vecinos en las diversas actividades colectivas como la producción patrimonial edilicia ypaisajística del barrio, o las mejoras habitacionales y ambientales. El objetivo del trabajo es tensionar las ideas acerca de la planificación como una política “desde arriba” que no contempla las necesidades de los habitantes del espacio. Al parecer, nuevas perspectivas de análisis y bibliografía iluminarían aristas poco exploradas de viejos problemas urbanos generando puntos de vista alternativos para pensar la planificación de las ciudades

Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA)

Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA) and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the &lt;i&gt;worst virtual scenario&lt;/i&gt;. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA

Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA)

Abstract. Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA) and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the worst virtual scenario. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA

Case report - coronary vasospasm in transplanted heart: a puzzling phenomenon.

Coronary artery spasm (CAS) is an underdiagnosed disease especially in heart transplant patients, and in those patients the etiology and pathophysiology remain largely unknown, although it has been associated with cardiac allograft vasculopathy or graft rejection. We report the case of a heart-transplant patient whose cardiac graft experienced two coronary vasospasms: the first before transplantation, and the other at one-month of a postoperative course complicated by primary graft failure. Our case illustrates that a transplanted heart predisposed with coronary vasospasm may suffer from early relapse in the recipient despite of complete post-surgical autonomic denervation. Exacerbated endothelial dysfunction of the donor heart after transplant, with the addition of systemic factors in the recipient may be involved in the genesis of this puzzling phenomenon

Scenario-based assessment of buildings' damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt

Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt with regards to population, is a key economic area in northern Africa and has very important tourist activity. Historical records indicate that it was severely affected by a number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the worst-case credible tsunami scenario analysis (WCTSA). We identify three main seismic sources: the western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303, Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out in two sea level conditions (mean sea level and maximum high-tide sea level) by means of the code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the framework of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth. It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the south-west of the port of Dekhila, over 12 000 (13 400 in the case of maximum high tide) buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could sustain damaging consequences, ranging from critical damage to total collapse. It is also found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about 15 km2, resulting in more than 150 000 (165 000 in the case of maximum high tide) residents being exposed