Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth’s historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record3, 4. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861–2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air5. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5–95% range of 1.0–3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

The high energy neutrino cross-section in the Standard Model and its uncertainty

Updated predictions are presented for high energy neutrino and antineutrino charged and neutral current cross-sections within the conventional DGLAP formalism of NLO QCD using modern PDF fits. PDF uncertainties from model assumptions and parametrization bias are considered in addition to the experimental uncertainties. Particular attention is paid to assumptions and biases which could signal the need for extension of the conventional formalism to include effects such as ln(1/x) resummation or non-linear effects of high gluon density.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables (REVTeX4); clarifying comments and link to tabulated cross sections at http://www-pnp.physics.ox.ac.uk/~cooper/neutrino/ added; to appear in JHE

Mechanistic insight into the sensing of nitroaromatic compounds by metal-organic frameworks

There has been extensive research on the sensing of explosive nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) using fluorescent metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). However, ambiguity in the sensing mechanism has hampered the development of efficient explosive sensors. Here we report the synthesis of a hydroxyl-functionalized MOF for rapid and efficient sensing of NACs and examine in detail its fluorescence quenching mechanisms. In chloroform, quenching takes place primarily by exciton migration to the ground-state complex formed between the MOF and the analytes. A combination of hydrogen-bonding interactions and ??????? stacking interactions are responsible for fluorescence quenching, and this observation is supported by single-crystal structures. In water, the quenching mechanism shifts toward resonance energy transfer and photo-induced electron transfer, after exciton migration as in chloroform. This study provides insight into florescence-quenching mechanisms for the selective sensing of NACs and reduces the ambiguity regarding the nature of interactions between the MOF and NACs

Visualising biological data: a semantic approach to tool and database integration

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Motivation</p> <p>In the biological sciences, the need to analyse vast amounts of information has become commonplace. Such large-scale analyses often involve drawing together data from a variety of different databases, held remotely on the internet or locally on in-house servers. Supporting these tasks are <it>ad hoc </it>collections of data-manipulation tools, scripting languages and visualisation software, which are often combined in arcane ways to create cumbersome systems that have been customised for a particular purpose, and are consequently not readily adaptable to other uses. For many day-to-day bioinformatics tasks, the sizes of current databases, and the scale of the analyses necessary, now demand increasing levels of automation; nevertheless, the unique experience and intuition of human researchers is still required to interpret the end results in any meaningful biological way. Putting humans in the loop requires tools to support real-time interaction with these vast and complex data-sets. Numerous tools do exist for this purpose, but many do not have optimal interfaces, most are effectively isolated from other tools and databases owing to incompatible data formats, and many have limited real-time performance when applied to realistically large data-sets: much of the user's cognitive capacity is therefore focused on controlling the software and manipulating esoteric file formats rather than on performing the research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To confront these issues, harnessing expertise in human-computer interaction (HCI), high-performance rendering and distributed systems, and guided by bioinformaticians and end-user biologists, we are building reusable software components that, together, create a toolkit that is both architecturally sound from a computing point of view, and addresses both user and developer requirements. Key to the system's usability is its direct exploitation of semantics, which, crucially, gives individual components knowledge of their own functionality and allows them to interoperate seamlessly, removing many of the existing barriers and bottlenecks from standard bioinformatics tasks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The toolkit, named Utopia, is freely available from <url>http://utopia.cs.man.ac.uk/</url>.</p

Mapping infectious disease hospital surge threats to lessons learnt in Singapore: a systems analysis and development of a framework to inform how to DECIDE on planning and response strategies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital usage and service demand during an Infectious Disease (ID) outbreak can tax the health system in different ways. Herein we conceptualize hospital surge elements, and lessons learnt from such events, to help build appropriately matched responses to future ID surge threats. METHODS: We used the Interpretive Descriptive qualitative approach. Interviews (n = 35) were conducted with governance and public health specialists; hospital based staff; and General Practitioners. Key policy literature in tandem with the interview data were used to iteratively generate a Hospital ID Surge framework. We anchored our narrative account within this framework, which is used to structure our analysis. RESULTS: A spectrum of surge threats from combinations of capacity (for crowding) and capability (for treatment complexity) demands were identified. Starting with the Pyramid scenario, or an influx of high screening rates flooding Emergency Departments, alongside fewer and manageable admissions; the Reverse-Pyramid occurs when few cases are screened and admitted but those that are, are complex; during a 'Black' scenario, the system is overburdened by both crowding and complexity. The Singapore hospital system is highly adapted to crowding, functioning remarkably well at constant near-full capacity in Peacetime and resilient to Endemic surges. We catalogue 26 strategies from lessons learnt relating to staffing, space, supplies and systems, crystalizing institutional memory. The DECIDE model advocates linking these strategies to types of surge threats and offers a step-by-step guide for coordinating outbreak planning and response. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of a shared definition and decision making of surge threats had rendered the procedures somewhat duplicative. This burden was paradoxically exacerbated by a health system that highly prizes planning and forward thinking, but worked largely in silo until an ID crisis hit. Many such lessons can be put into play to further strengthen our current hospital governance and adapted to more diverse settings

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Extended Longevity of Reproductives Appears to be Common in Fukomys Mole-Rats (Rodentia, Bathyergidae)

African mole-rats (Bathyergidae, Rodentia) contain several social, cooperatively breeding species with low extrinsic mortality and unusually high longevity. All social bathyergids live in multigenerational families where reproduction is skewed towards a few breeding individuals. Most of their offspring remain as reproductively inactive “helpers” in their natal families, often for several years. This “reproductive subdivision” of mole-rat societies might be of interest for ageing research, as in at least one social bathyergid (Ansell's mole-rats Fukomys anselli), breeders have been shown to age significantly slower than non-breeders. These animals thus provide excellent conditions for studying the epigenetics of senescence by comparing divergent longevities within the same genotypes without the inescapable short-comings of inter-species comparisons. It has been claimed that many if not all social mole-rat species may have evolved similar ageing patterns, too. However, this remains unclear on account of the scarcity of reliable datasets on the subject. We therefore analyzed a 20-year breeding record of Giant mole-rats Fukomys mechowii, another social bathyergid species. We found that breeders indeed lived significantly longer than helpers (ca. 1.5–2.2fold depending on the sex), irrespective of social rank or other potentially confounding factors. Considering the phylogenetic positions of F. mechowii and F. anselli and unpublished data on a third Fukomys-species (F. damarensis) showing essentially the same pattern, it seems probable that the reversal of the classic trade-off between somatic maintenance and sexual reproduction is characteristic of the whole genus and hence of the vast majority of social mole-rats

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms—mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)—poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in ‘extreme’ daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models

Directed Evolution Generates a Novel Oncolytic Virus for the Treatment of Colon Cancer

Background Viral-mediated oncolysis is a novel cancer therapeutic approach with the potential to be more effective and less toxic than current therapies due to the agents selective growth and amplification in tumor cells. To date, these agents have been highly safe in patients but have generally fallen short of their expected therapeutic value as monotherapies. Consequently, new approaches to generating highly potent oncolytic viruses are needed. To address this need, we developed a new method that we term “Directed Evolution” for creating highly potent oncolytic viruses. Methodology/Principal Findings Taking the “Directed Evolution” approach, viral diversity was increased by pooling an array of serotypes, then passaging the pools under conditions that invite recombination between serotypes. These highly diverse viral pools were then placed under stringent directed selection to generate and identify highly potent agents. ColoAd1, a complex Ad3/Ad11p chimeric virus, was the initial oncolytic virus derived by this novel methodology. ColoAd1, the first described non-Ad5-based oncolytic Ad, is 2–3 logs more potent and selective than the parent serotypes or the most clinically advanced oncolytic Ad, ONYX-015, in vitro. ColoAd1's efficacy was further tested in vivo in a colon cancer liver metastasis xenograft model following intravenous injection and its ex vivo selectivity was demonstrated on surgically-derived human colorectal tumor tissues. Lastly, we demonstrated the ability to arm ColoAd1 with an exogenous gene establishing the potential to impact the treatment of cancer on multiple levels from a single agent. Conclusions/Significance Using the “Directed Evolution” methodology, we have generated ColoAd1, a novel chimeric oncolytic virus. In vitro, this virus demonstrated a &gt;2 log increase in both potency and selectivity when compared to ONYX-015 on colon cancer cells. These results were further supported by in vivo and ex vivo studies. Furthermore, these results have validated this methodology as a new general approach for deriving clinically-relevant, highly potent anti-cancer virotherapies

Going Solo: Discovery of the First Parthenogenetic Gordiid (Nematomorpha: Gordiida)

Despite the severe fitness costs associated with sexual reproduction, its persistence and pervasiveness among multicellular organisms testifies to its intrinsic, short-term advantages. However, the reproductive assurance hypothesis predicts selection favoring asexual reproduction in sparse populations and when mate finding is difficult. Difficulties in finding mates is especially common in parasites, whose life cycles involve multiple hosts, or being released from the host into the external environment where the parasite can find itself trapped without a sexual partner. To solve this problem and guarantee reproduction, parasites in numerous phyla have evolved reproductive strategies, as predicted by the reproductive assurance hypothesis, such as hermaphroditism or parthenogenesis. However, this type of strategy has not been reported from species in the phylum Nematomorpha, whose populations have often been described as sparse. A new Nematomorpha species, Paragordius obamai n. sp., was discovered from Kenya, Africa, and appears to have solved the problem of being trapped without a mate by eliminating the need for males. Paragordius obamai n. sp. represents the first and only known species within this phylum to reproduce asexually. To determine the mechanism of this mating strategy, we ruled out the involvement of reproduction manipulating endosymbionts by use of next generation sequencing data, thus suggesting that parthenogenesis is determined genetically and may have evolved as a means to assure reproduction. Since this new parthenogenetic species and a closely related gonochoristic North American congener, P. varius, are easy to propagate in the laboratory, these gordiids can be used as model systems to test hypotheses on the genetic advantages and disadvantages of asexual reproduction and the genetic determinants of reproductive strategies in parasites