Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?

When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease

Algorithms for optimizing drug therapy

BACKGROUND: Drug therapy has become increasingly efficient, with more drugs available for treatment of an ever-growing number of conditions. Yet, drug use is reported to be sub optimal in several aspects, such as dosage, patient's adherence and outcome of therapy. The aim of the current study was to investigate the possibility to optimize drug therapy using computer programs, available on the Internet. METHODS: One hundred and ten officially endorsed text documents, published between 1996 and 2004, containing guidelines for drug therapy in 246 disorders, were analyzed with regard to information about patient-, disease- and drug-related factors and relationships between these factors. This information was used to construct algorithms for identifying optimum treatment in each of the studied disorders. These algorithms were categorized in order to define as few models as possible that still could accommodate the identified factors and the relationships between them. The resulting program prototypes were implemented in HTML (user interface) and JavaScript (program logic). RESULTS: Three types of algorithms were sufficient for the intended purpose. The simplest type is a list of factors, each of which implies that the particular patient should or should not receive treatment. This is adequate in situations where only one treatment exists. The second type, a more elaborate model, is required when treatment can by provided using drugs from different pharmacological classes and the selection of drug class is dependent on patient characteristics. An easily implemented set of if-then statements was able to manage the identified information in such instances. The third type was needed in the few situations where the selection and dosage of drugs were depending on the degree to which one or more patient-specific factors were present. In these cases the implementation of an established decision model based on fuzzy sets was required. Computer programs based on one of these three models could be constructed regarding all but one of the studied disorders. The single exception was depression, where reliable relationships between patient characteristics, drug classes and outcome of therapy remain to be defined. CONCLUSION: Algorithms for optimizing drug therapy can, with presumably rare exceptions, be developed for any disorder, using standard Internet programming methods

Demand forecasting: a case study in the food industry

The use of forecasting methods is nowadays regarded as a business ally since it supports both the operational and the strategic decision-making processes. This paper is based on a research project aiming the development of demand forecasting models for a company (designated here by PR) that operates in the food business, more specifically in the delicatessen segment. In particular, we focused on demand forecasting models that can serve as a tool to support production planning and inventory management at the company. The analysis of the company’s operations led to the development of a new demand forecasting tool based on a combination of forecasts, which is now being used and tested by the company.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/201

Neoliberalisation and 'lad cultures' in higher education

This paper links HE neoliberalisation and ‘lad cultures’, drawing on interviews and focus groups with women students. We argue that retro-sexist ‘laddish’ forms of masculine competitiveness and misogyny have been reshaped by neoliberal rationalities to become modes of consumerist sexualised audit. We also suggest that neoliberal frameworks scaffold an individualistic and adversarial culture among young people that interacts with perceived threats to men’s privilege and intensifies attempts to put women in their place through misogyny and sexual harassment. Furthermore, ‘lad cultures’, sexism and sexual harassment in higher education may be invisibilised by institutions to preserve marketability in a neoliberal context. In response, we ask if we might foster dialogue and partnership between feminist and anti-marketisation politics

Needs assessment to strengthen capacity in water and sanitation research in Africa:experiences of the African SNOWS consortium

Despite its contribution to global disease burden, diarrhoeal disease is still a relatively neglected area for research funding, especially in low-income country settings. The SNOWS consortium (Scientists Networked for Outcomes from Water and Sanitation) is funded by the Wellcome Trust under an initiative to build the necessary research skills in Africa. This paper focuses on the research training needs of the consortium as identified during the first three years of the project

Non-extremal Black Hole Microstates: Fuzzballs of Fire or Fuzzballs of Fuzz ?

We construct the first family of microstate geometries of near-extremal black holes, by placing metastable supertubes inside certain scaling supersymmetric smooth microstate geometries. These fuzzballs differ from the classical black hole solution macroscopically at the horizon scale, and for certain probes the fluctuations between various fuzzballs will be visible as thermal noise far away from the horizon. We discuss whether these fuzzballs appear to infalling observers as fuzzballs of fuzz or as fuzzballs of fire. The existence of these solutions suggests that the singularity of non-extremal black holes is resolved all the way to the outer horizon and this "backwards in time" singularity resolution can shed light on the resolution of spacelike cosmological singularities.Comment: 34 pages, 10 figure

Using sequence data to identify alternative routes and risk of infection: a case-study of campylobacter in Scotland

<b>Background:</b> Genetic typing data are a potentially powerful resource for determining how infection is acquired. In this paper MLST typing was used to distinguish the routes and risks of infection of humans with Campylobacter jejuni from poultry and ruminant sources.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> C. jejuni samples from animal and environmental sources and from reported human cases confirmed between June 2005 and September 2006 were typed using MLST. The STRUCTURE software was used to assign the specific sequence types of the sporadic human cases to a particular source. We then used mixed case-case logistic regression analysis to compare the risk factors for being infected with C. jejuni from different sources.<p></p> <b>Results:</b> A total of 1,599 (46.3%) cases were assigned to poultry, 1,070 (31.0%) to ruminant and 67 (1.9%) to wild bird sources; the remaining 715 (20.7%) did not have a source that could be assigned with a probability of greater than 0.95. Compared to ruminant sources, cases attributed to poultry sources were typically among adults (odds ratio (OR) = 1.497, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) = 1.211, 1.852), not among males (OR = 0.834, 95% CIs = 0.712, 0.977), in areas with population density of greater than 500 people/km(2) (OR = 1.213, 95% CIs = 1.030, 1.431), reported in the winter (OR = 1.272, 95% CIs = 1.067, 1.517) and had undertaken recent overseas travel (OR = 1.618, 95% CIs = 1.056, 2.481). The poultry assigned strains had a similar epidemiology to the unassigned strains, with the exception of a significantly higher likelihood of reporting overseas travel in unassigned strains.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> Rather than estimate relative risks for acquiring infection, our analyses show that individuals acquire C. jejuni infection from different sources have different associated risk factors. By enhancing our ability to identify at-risk groups and the times at which these groups are likely to be at risk, this work allows public health messages to be targeted more effectively. The rapidly increasing capacity to conduct genetic typing of pathogens makes such traced epidemiological analysis more accessible and has the potential to substantially enhance epidemiological risk factor studies

Regional respiratory time constants during lung recruitment in high-frequency oscillatory ventilated preterm infants

To assess the regional respiratory time constants of lung volume changes during stepwise lung recruitment before and after surfactant treatment in high-frequency oscillatory ventilated preterm infants. A stepwise oxygenation-guided recruitment procedure was performed before and after surfactant treatment in high-frequency oscillatory ventilated preterm infants. Electrical impedance tomography was used to continuously record changes in lung volume during the recruitment maneuver. Time constants were determined for all incremental and decremental pressure steps, using one-phase exponential decay curve fitting. Data were analyzed for the whole cross section of the chest and the ventral and dorsal lung regions separately. Before surfactant treatment, the time constants of the incremental pressure steps were significantly longer (median 27.3 s) than those in the decremental steps (16.1 s). Regional analysis showed only small differences between the ventral and dorsal lung regions. Following surfactant treatment, the time constants during decremental pressure steps almost tripled to 44.3 s. Furthermore, the time constants became significantly (p <0.01) longer in the dorsal (61.2 s) than into the ventral (40.3 s) lung region. Lung volume stabilization during stepwise oxygenation-guided lung recruitment in high-frequency oscillatory ventilated preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome is usually completed within 5 min and is dependent on the position of ventilation on the pressure volume curve, the surfactant status, and the region of interest of the lun